Nevada continues to drift away from Republicans

[IceSpear]

Of course. It makes no sense that Hillary spent money in NV, but not in PA. NV will not vote Republican, period. If the polls show it close, it's probably just due to undersampling Hispanics yet again.

What past undersampling of Hispanics are you referring too? The 2010 Senate Race between Reid and Angle?

That, and they also underestimated Obama in 2008/2012.

[ProudModerate2]

Bringing over some interesting facts from another thread ........

RE: Nevada polling

here is a table comparing the RCP avg vs actual result for NV and FL and OH

Year      NV           FL          OH   
2012   R+3.9   R+2.4   R+0.1   
2008   R+6.0   R+1.0   R+2.1   
2004   R+3.7   D+5.0   --   

So each cycle the polls in Nevada have overestimated the GOP candidate by 4-6 points. Whereas in FL and OH it has been much closer, except in 2004 in FL where they really overestimated Kerry. 

And with a young population and so many new people moving in and out of NV and with the trends away from landlines and the growth of Latinos, its not like there are any indications polling is getting any better. I just think NBC and others forget about how pollsters consistently blow it in Nevada. 

That doesn't mean it is safe or even likely Clinton, but it isn't more likely than Florida. 

[Brittain33]

Trump's strength in the Mormon community will help him over the top in Nevada.

[hopper]

Of course. It makes no sense that Hillary spent money in NV, but not in PA. NV will not vote Republican, period. If the polls show it close, it's probably just due to undersampling Hispanics yet again.

What past undersampling of Hispanics are you referring too? The 2010 Senate Race between Reid and Angle?

That, and they also underestimated Obama in 2008/2012.

Well I'm pretty sure Nate Silver had Obama winning Nevada in 2012 at least. He did have Angle beating Reid though in 2010 because he undersampled Hispanic Voters.

[hopper]

Trump's strength in the Mormon community will help him over the top in Nevada.

Well Mitt Romney in 2012 was a Mormon and he didn't win Nevada.

Mormons aren't in love with Trump either. Look at how close Utah currently is.

[hopper]

I'd expect Clinton to win Nevada by double digits, not 5-6 points like Ralston suggests.
Then again when Obama won it by 12 in 2008 no pollster had predicted such a wide margin.

To be fair, the housing crash really helped Obama in Nevada in 2008. The market had recovered some in 2012, hence the trend against him in 2012, but with demographic changes moving quickly in the state and with Trump, I'd also say a double digit win is probable.

Sure the Latino Population grew from  making up 7% of the Population to making up 27% of the states population in the 2010 Census but has growth stopped because as of 2015 per USA Quickfacts Latino's make up 28% the states population? Not much growth within the states Latino Population population this decade as in past decades. Sure more  Latino's may enter Nevada's  electorate as the years go by because US Born Latino's are extremely young but their population growth has tailed off from past decades in the state.

[Joe Republic]

Trump's strength in the Mormon community will help him over the top in Nevada.

Well Mitt Romney in 2012 was a Mormon and he didn't win Nevada.

Mormons aren't in love with Trump either. Look at how close Utah currently is.

[pbrower2a]

Of course. It makes no sense that Hillary spent money in NV, but not in PA. NV will not vote Republican, period. If the polls show it close, it's probably just due to undersampling Hispanics yet again.

What past undersampling of Hispanics are you referring too? The 2010 Senate Race between Reid and Angle?

Sharron Angle was simply an execrable candidate.

[Bojack Horseman]

Of course. It makes no sense that Hillary spent money in NV, but not in PA. NV will not vote Republican, period. If the polls show it close, it's probably just due to undersampling Hispanics yet again.

What past undersampling of Hispanics are you referring too? The 2010 Senate Race between Reid and Angle?

Sharron Angle was simply an execrable candidate.

And if she'd managed to beat Reid, hed be running for his old seat right now and would probably be in an even worse position than Ron Johnson.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

McGinty isn't going to be the 50th or 51st seat though. It's probably the 54th. So if McGinty wins, great. If she loses, who cares? Hillary doesn't need her.

Wulfric, that logic makes no sense. Democrats / Hillary know full well that if they don't pick up as many seats as possible this cycle, then they will be at a much higher risk of losing the Senate again in 2018. How are they supposed to confirm federal judges and fill possible USSC seats if they lose the Senate in 2018? They have every incentive to pick up as many seats as possible, and PA is winnable for them this year, so if something is lacking in that race (funding or support from Clinton), then it won't be due to DNC folks saying "meh, we don't really need it anyway."

And I don't understand what you mean by "isn't going to be the 50th or 51st seat", there is no order to this, unless you want to say that IL and WI are sure things and would definitely count as the 47th and 48th seats. Atlas is really going overboard with this "if they win this state, they've already won"-logic. The combinations of states people are using this logic for is getting quite amusing.

If the Democrats don't win the PA Senate seat, I can't see how they'll carry the Senate.

Marco Rubio's back in the race in FL, and while he's not helped himself, he is a slight fave. 

[Virginiá]

If the Democrats don't win the PA Senate seat, I can't see how they'll carry the Senate.

Marco Rubio's back in the race in FL, and while he's not helped himself, he is a slight fave.  

But why? What makes it so that somehow PA's Senate race is an accurate marker of how other Senate races are going? Individual races have their own issues but will also be influenced by straight ticket voting. What if some real juicy dirt on McGinty surfaces, or she commits some terrible gaffe and hands the race to Toomey even as 4 - 5 other Senate races go Democratic? If they was polling near or within the MoE come election day, then it might just come down to which presidential candidate wins the state and by how much. The same might be said for Florida and Ohio as well. I just don't get why PA is special here.

[ElectionsGuy]

McGinty isn't going to be the 50th or 51st seat though. It's probably the 54th. So if McGinty wins, great. If she loses, who cares? Hillary doesn't need her.

Wulfric, that logic makes no sense. Democrats / Hillary know full well that if they don't pick up as many seats as possible this cycle, then they will be at a much higher risk of losing the Senate again in 2018. How are they supposed to confirm federal judges and fill possible USSC seats if they lose the Senate in 2018? They have every incentive to pick up as many seats as possible, and PA is winnable for them this year, so if something is lacking in that race (funding or support from Clinton), then it won't be due to DNC folks saying "meh, we don't really need it anyway."

And I don't understand what you mean by "isn't going to be the 50th or 51st seat", there is no order to this, unless you want to say that IL and WI are sure things and would definitely count as the 47th and 48th seats. Atlas is really going overboard with this "if they win this state, they've already won"-logic. The combinations of states people are using this logic for is getting quite amusing.

If the Democrats don't win the PA Senate seat, I can't see how they'll carry the Senate.

Marco Rubio's back in the race in FL, and while he's not helped himself, he is a slight fave. 

It's actually quite easy. WI + IL + NH + FL. Even if you think Rubio will win, Portman has been deadlocked with Strickland in the polls for months now, and that race appears to be more competitive than Pennsylvania's. You also have McCain who's highly vulnerable this time, and an outside chane of Burr losing who will be stuck with Trump and McCrory dragging him down.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, FL and OH likely flip before PA.