538 Model Megathread

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Clinton's now below 70 in polls-plus.  The surge is real!

Nate Silver doesn't have a clue. There is no path, let alone a single one that gives a 30% chance.

Those chances are there for "convenience" sake. The difference between 538 and others is that 538 assume that Undeciders are "pure", i.e. very elastic, or we can say that 538 doesn't make any assumption at all = we know nothing about undeciders and their preferences.

Other models assume that Undeciders will split evenly more or less.

That's it. Sort of.

But if you just look at what the models think each candidate score at each state and/or nationally, they are pretty much the same

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

polls are tightening for sure. jobs report wasn't that bad. I'm nervous.

This is why Democrats can't have nice things.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Iowa flips to Trump on polls-only.

[Figueira]

Iowa flips to Trump on polls-only.

I noticed. I doubt this is a permanent development, though.

[DoctorWinstonOBoogie]

I think Iowa will be close enough that Clinton can win it purely on GOTV advantage. If they don't show Trump ahead by at least 1/1.5 pts. on Election Day, I'd say she'd win it.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Clinton's now below 70 in polls-plus.  The surge is real!

Nate Silver doesn't have a clue. There is no path, let alone a single one that gives a 30% chance.

Come on now...

You need to get more realistic. A large portion of this country despises Trump. Minds are made up. GOP not winning PA, WI, (or NH! )

Wake up! According to the latest polls they are pretty much equally ~hated. Muahaha

Wake up, the vast majority of this country considers Clinton "qualified" and only about a third say that about Trump.

[Ljube]

Clinton's now below 70 in polls-plus.  The surge is real!

Nate Silver doesn't have a clue. There is no path, let alone a single one that gives a 30% chance.

Come on now...

You need to get more realistic. A large portion of this country despises Trump. Minds are made up. GOP not winning PA, WI, (or NH! )

Wake up! According to the latest polls they are pretty much equally ~hated. Muahaha

Wake up, the vast majority of this country considers Clinton "qualified" and only about a third say that about Trump.

You don't have to be qualified to be a president. Reagan was not qualified.

A president can have a lot of advisers. What a president needs is good judgement and leadership. That's what Trump has and what Hillary lacks.

[Dr. Arch]

Clinton's now below 70 in polls-plus.  The surge is real!

Nate Silver doesn't have a clue. There is no path, let alone a single one that gives a 30% chance.

Come on now...

You need to get more realistic. A large portion of this country despises Trump. Minds are made up. GOP not winning PA, WI, (or NH! )

Wake up! According to the latest polls they are pretty much equally ~hated. Muahaha

Wake up, the vast majority of this country considers Clinton "qualified" and only about a third say that about Trump.

You don't have to be qualified to be a president. Reagan was not qualified.

A president can have a lot of advisers. What a president needs is good judgement and leadership. That's what Trump has and what Hillary lacks.

L-o-L

[Maxwell]

he's not wrong. Reagan was hapless and completely unqualified for the job.

But the Reagan example proves why we shouldn't elect Trump - Reagan was a terrible President.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

he's not wrong. Reagan was hapless and completely unqualified for the job.

But the Reagan example proves why we shouldn't elect Trump - Reagan was a terrible President.

Reagan is the best president post-Eisenhower. Enough said.

[Ljube]

he's not wrong. Reagan was hapless and completely unqualified for the job.

But the Reagan example proves why we shouldn't elect Trump - Reagan was a terrible President.

Reagan is the best president post-Eisenhower. Enough said.

Still, he wasn't qualified for the job. Neither was Obama. Didn't stop either.

[GeorgiaModerate]

he's not wrong. Reagan was hapless and completely unqualified for the job.

But the Reagan example proves why we shouldn't elect Trump - Reagan was a terrible President.

Reagan is the best president post-Eisenhower. Enough said.

Still, he wasn't qualified for the job. Neither was Obama. Didn't stop either.

Both Reagan and Obama had some experience in government; Trump has zero.  More importantly, both had the temperament to be President.  Trump, by all indications, does not.

[LLR]

he's not wrong. Reagan was hapless and completely unqualified for the job.

But the Reagan example proves why we shouldn't elect Trump - Reagan was a terrible President.

Reagan is the best president post-Eisenhower. Enough said.

[Gustaf]

It's stunning that anyone could still believe Trump is gonna be surrounded by good advisors able to rein him in.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

he's not wrong. Reagan was hapless and completely unqualified for the job.

But the Reagan example proves why we shouldn't elect Trump - Reagan was a terrible President.

Reagan is the best president post-Eisenhower. Enough said.

GINI is a rough measure of income inequality... I'll let the graph speak for itself.

Also, as much of a Reagan non-fan I am, at least he had been a governor for 8 years before running for President, as well as his 1976 campaign. Trump has literally ZERO experience in anything even remotely close the presidency, which is why he is going to run us off of a cliff from day one.

[afleitch]

The three models have broadly converged. How long are they going to hedge their bets

[Figueira]

How is red IA to the left of blue ME-02 on the path to 270 chart?

[Lachi]

How is red IA to the left of blue ME-02 on the path to 270 chart?

All these junk Landline-only polls messing with the average.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Converging!

After today CNN and SurveyMonkey polls.

Trump:
Polls-plus   32.5%
Polls-only   30.8%
Now-cast   32.3%

[Slander and/or Libel]

It's funny when people pretend like 538's models represent reality, rather than an attempt to estimate reality, based on a basket of historical data, and assumptions about how to apply it.

[Sorenroy]

It's funny when people pretend like 538's models represent reality, rather than an attempt to estimate reality, based on a basket of historical data, and assumptions about how to apply it.

Exactly. It is true that they model what will probably happen, but they make no quams about having a large MOE.

For example, here is the tossup states per the "80% chance outcome falls in this range" for the state of the race today (now-cast):

[elcorazon]

The three models have broadly converged. How long are they going to hedge their bets

bets?? what do you mean? The models are designed to show the possibilities. Race is still too close to call with Hillary clearly ahead but not by much.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

One pro-Trump poll would probably flip Ohio on polls-plus.  Right now, it's still Romney+Iowa+ME02.  But, Trump is up to a 1/3 chance on that and Nowcast and a 31% chance on Polls-only.  If it keeps going like this, he could take the lead in a couple of weeks.

[eric82oslo]

As of today, September 6th, after Washington Post released its 50 state Survey Monkey poll of 74,000 registered voters, the closest states relative to Clinton's national average lead of 3.7% according to 538's current Now Cast, are (some of these top states should come as rather surprising):


Michigan: R +0.3%
Maine: D +0.4%
New Hampshire: D +0.5%
Pennsylvania: D +0.6%
Colorado: D +0.6%
Wisconsin: R +1.1%
Nevada: R +1.4%
Minnesota: D +1.6%
Florida: R +2.3%
Virginia: D +2.3%

Ohio: R +3.3%
North Carolina: R +3.3%
New Mexico: D +4.0%
Oregon: D +4.6%
(Nebraska 2nd District: R +4.6%)
Connecticut: D +4.7%
Rhode Island: D +5.6%
Iowa: R +6.4%
New Jersey: D +6.6%
(Maine 2nd District: R +7.1%)
Washington: D +7.4%
Delaware: D +7.4%
(Maine 1st District: D +7.4%)
Georgia: R +7.7%
Arizona: R +8.2%

South Carolina: R +9.4%

Missouri: R +10.9%
Illinois: D +11.6%
Massachusetts: D +11.9%

(Nebraska 1st District: R +13.7%)
New York: D +14.3%
Alaska: R +14.4%
Texas: R +14.9%
Montana: R +15.0%
Arkansas: R +15.4%
Kansas: R +16.2%
Vermont: D +16.9%
Mississippi: R +17.0%
Utah: R +17.1%
Nebraska: R +17.9%
Kentucky: R +18.7%
South Dakota: R +19.1%
Maryland: D +19.2%
Indiana: R +19.6%


Louisiana: R +21.9%
Tennessee: R +22.0%

Alabama: R +23.1%
California: D +23.7%

West Virginia: R +24.9%

Idaho: R +26.4%
Hawaii: D +26.6%
Oklahoma: R +26.9%
North Dakota: R +26.9%



(Nebraska 3rd District: R +35.0%)



Wyoming: R +38.5%



D.C.: D +71.0%


15 states are currently within a 5% margin of the national average, with Rhode Island just missing out on the battleground status. Iowa being even further away from being a battleground this year as of right now, which is a bit astonishing.

The four states that many/most election analysts/pundits/campaigns have claimed to be the most crucial ones to win in this election, are currently only ranking 4th - Pennsylvania - 9th - Florida - 11th - Ohio and 12th - North Carolina, according to this specific list, which doesn't take into account tipping point chances however, only whether a state is close to the national average or not.

As the current Now Cast stands right now, Wisconsin is considered the most likely tipping point state, with Nevada following right behind. Since these two states are currently leaning about 1 to 1.5% more Republican than the nation, it should mean that Trump interestingly enough is the one with the Electoral College advantage right now. This again means that anything below a 2% national lead for Clinton should scare her campaign a lot. With their current lead of only 3.7%, they're not far ahead of that number. Their extensive battleground advertisement spending does not seem to have moved the numbers in those states much, if anything at all.

If the race were to come down to an absolute toss-up, meaning that either Trump or Clinton would be leading with less than 1% nationally, this is the map 538's Now Cast is currently projecting that such a scenario would give us:

Rep: 276
Dem: 211
Toss-up: 51

Sadly for Clinton, this scenario would mean that she had already lost the election, even if she were to the sweep the remaining five toss up states. So only a fool would underestimate such states as Wisconsin, Nevada and Florida, which could mean the difference between a victory and a loss in the end.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Absolutely astounding that fraudster Nate Silver is making Donald Trump not the biggest conman in this election.