538 Model Megathread

[Gustaf]

With the latest national polls added in Clinton went up further:

Now-cast: 76.3% (Obama2012 - OH, +NC)
Polls-only: 68.7%(Obama2012 - OH, IA, +NC)
Polls-Plus: 65.2% (Obama2012 - OH, IA)

[rafta_rafta]

Even Rasmussen has Trump down by 3

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

With the latest glorious Colorado polls integrated into the now-cast, Trump now is <20% across the the 272, with the exception of New Hampshire (ROFLcopter).

[ProudModerate2]

Even Rasmussen has Trump down by 3

.... And with 538's adjustment, they convert the Rasmussen lead to a Clinton +5 (not just +3).
8-)

[dspNY]

When the CBS/NYT poll is factored into the model, Clinton will go above 80% on the Nowcast and probably over 72% in polls only

[dspNY]

The Nowcast now has Arizona moving back into the battleground with a nearly 40% chance for Clinton to win it. Polls-only has Arizona at a 35% chance for Clinton. Watch this because the early vote starts there in 9-10 days and Clinton is setting up a real swing-state organization to bank early votes...

[Wiz in Wis]

North Carolina is now blue in all three models, and Ohio is blue in Nowcast and Polls-only. WI, MI, PA, VA are all 80% plus in Polls-only. Florida approaching 70% Clinton in the Nowcast. Clinton breaks 300 EVs in all three models as well.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Clinton is now above 70% in all three models (over 80% in nowcast).  It's the first time she's been above 70% in polls-plus since September 1.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Clinton is now above 70% in all three models (over 80% in nowcast).  It's the first time she's been above 70% in polls-plus since September 1.

I'm losing hope.  Maybe Pence will stop the bleeding!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Welcome Home, OHIO!!!

[Boston Bread]

I put together a swing map between the 2012 election and the margin of victory in the 538 polls-only model.

Largest R swing: DC
Largest D swing: Utah

[LLR]

I put together a swing map between the 2012 election and the margin of victory in the 538 polls-only model.

Largest R swing: DC
Largest D swing: Utah

This looks mostly accurate but
-DC is obviously junk
-No way North Dakota trends D
-Same for West Virginia

[Doimper]

The Nowcast now has Arizona moving back into the battleground with a nearly 40% chance for Clinton to win it. Polls-only has Arizona at a 35% chance for Clinton. Watch this because the early vote starts there in 9-10 days and Clinton is setting up a real swing-state organization to bank early votes...

Does Clinton really have a substantial ground game in Arizona/Georgia, though? I thought she had given up on them in favor of maintaining the freiwal + the standard swing states.

[BlueSwan]

All three models are now at their best for Clinton since late august.

[Wiz in Wis]

As of this morning, Iowa is now blue in the Nowcast, at 48% Clinton in Polls Only.

[HillOfANight]

The Nowcast now has Arizona moving back into the battleground with a nearly 40% chance for Clinton to win it. Polls-only has Arizona at a 35% chance for Clinton. Watch this because the early vote starts there in 9-10 days and Clinton is setting up a real swing-state organization to bank early votes...

Does Clinton really have a substantial ground game in Arizona/Georgia, though? I thought she had given up on them in favor of maintaining the freiwal + the standard swing states.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-tv-ads/
Still spending negligible amounts in them.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/trump-campaign-has-ground-game-problem/
Not a lot of field offices.



The state parties are doing more. It seems the Clinton campaign was just experimenting with AZ/GA.

[ursulahx]

As of this morning, Iowa is now blue in the Nowcast, at 48% Clinton in Polls Only.

Even in Polls-Plus Iowa is on a knife-edge, only slightly leaning Trump. I'd written this state off.

[dspNY]

All states in the blue firewall are at least 83.6% or higher for Clinton in the Nowcast, 76.9% in polls-only and 73.9% in polls-plus

Arizona is all the way to 43.3% on the Nowcast and 38.4% on polls-only for Clinton

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Even tho she has no chance of pulling out a win for herself, Clinton should consider helping out Kander in Missouri, probably by having some of her more likeable surrogates campaign and/or fundraise there with Kander.

[Gass3268]

Even tho she has no chance of pulling out a win for herself, Clinton should consider helping out Kander in Missouri, probably by having some of her more likeable surrogates campaign and/or fundraise there with Kander.

Wouldn't be a bad place to send Bill.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The Nowcast now has Arizona moving back into the battleground with a nearly 40% chance for Clinton to win it. Polls-only has Arizona at a 35% chance for Clinton. Watch this because the early vote starts there in 9-10 days and Clinton is setting up a real swing-state organization to bank early votes...

Does Clinton really have a substantial ground game in Arizona/Georgia, though? I thought she had given up on them in favor of maintaining the freiwal + the standard swing states.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-tv-ads/
Still spending negligible amounts in them.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/trump-campaign-has-ground-game-problem/
Not a lot of field offices.



The state parties are doing more. It seems the Clinton campaign was just experimenting with AZ/GA.

I was thinking of dropping in on the Indiana office.  They keep bugging me to come in.

Dude on the phone had a Wisconsin accent and I called him on it correctly.  All of us Clintonistas are carpetbaggers, lol.

[Gass3268]

Clinton inching closer to 80% in the polls-only model.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

BLUE ARIZONA ON NOWCAST!!
BLUE ARIZONA ON NOWCAST!!
BLUE ARIZONA ON NOWCAST!!
BLUE ARIZONA ON NOWCAST!!
BLUE ARIZONA ON NOWCAST!!
BLUE ARIZONA ON NOWCAST!!

OMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGG

Ok, I'm gonna calm my bits now.

[elcorazon]

AK is now more likely to go to Hillary than GA on both polls plus and the nowcast and almost the same on polls only. Did I miss some Alaska polls?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

AK is now more likely to go to Hillary than GA on both polls plus and the nowcast and almost the same on polls only. Did I miss some Alaska polls?

If it's the Google Consumer Surveys s**t poll, I'll be very disappointed.  That POS has no business being included.  Other than that, correlation with Arizona?