538 Model Megathread

[JRP1994]

Who said that Nate Silver had turned into a partisan GOP hack now that the FiveThirtyEight model has Clinton as a 75% or better favorite?

[Ebsy]

Who said that Nate Silver had turned into a partisan GOP hack now that the FiveThirtyEight model has Clinton as a 75% or better favorite?

Oh discredited fraud Nate Silver is still a paid GOP operative. Even he can't show Trump ahead anymore!

[Wells]

Who said that Nate Silver had turned into a partisan GOP hack now that the FiveThirtyEight model has Clinton as a 75% or better favorite?

Oh discredited fraud Nate Silver is still a paid GOP operative. Even he can't show Trump ahead anymore!

Nate Silver just can't catch a break. Conservatives think he's a liberal hero and liberals think he's a paid GOP operative.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Who said that Nate Silver had turned into a partisan GOP hack now that the FiveThirtyEight model has Clinton as a 75% or better favorite?

Oh discredited fraud Nate Silver is still a paid GOP operative. Even he can't show Trump ahead anymore!

Nate Silver just can't catch a break. Conservatives think he's a liberal hero and liberals think he's a paid GOP operative.

I don't give a toss who paid Silver to TALK to them, it's a cheap seats complaint. BUT since Silver is the face of 538 and its changed to being more about political analysis than just psephology, something has fallen over. He's got egg on his face for ignoring Trump because he relied on his model too much and assumed way too much about Republicans. Because of that, he has made his model extremely jumpy, it's basically an Atlas poster brought to life.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i think silver is doing the liberal site great favor.

see it more like a skepticist position: showing every possible weakness but at the same time also including every possible advantage.

i prefer hearing about data which makes me nervous and motivated than data which creates a bubble of over-confidence.

[dspNY]

That PPP Ohio poll moved Clinton to 87.1% in the Nowcast and 78.7% in the polls only. The 87.1% in the Nowcast is the highest number for Clinton since August 19-20, while the 78.7% in the polls-only is the highest number for her since August 28.

Interestingly, Nate's Nowcast accurately predicted that two Arizona polls would be within the margin of error, one in Clinton's direction, before we saw them (the Clinton +2 and the tie)

[Dr. Arch]

Trump has collapsed tremendously, while HRC surged simultaneously. Let's look forward to Sunday and hope that she seals the deal then.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Go to the current Polls-plus (ca. 7 am Oct. 7).

Trump has a 25.6% chance of winning New Hampshire and breaking into Clinton's 272.  But only a 24.7% chance of winning.  That's beautiful.  Basically, Trump needs to break down the freiwal more than Clinton actually needs the freiwal.  Because even with NH, Trump has to take FL, NC, and NV, and the correlation between NH and any of those is relatively low.

[TarHeelDem]

God bless the freiwal! Such a beautiful freiwal, folks, like none you've ever seen. And it's going to grow BIGGER in the next few cycles, BELIEVE me.

[ProudModerate2]

God bless the freiwal! Such a beautiful freiwal, folks, like none you've ever seen. And it's going to grow BIGGER in the next few cycles, BELIEVE me.

So what are you saying ..... that the Firewall just got two feet higher ?

[Xing]

God bless the freiwal! Such a beautiful freiwal, folks, like none you've ever seen. And it's going to grow BIGGER in the next few cycles, BELIEVE me.

So what are you saying ..... that the Firewall just got two feet higher ?

I think that the freiwal has gotten 35 feet higher, maybe even 50 feet higher, if you catch my drift.

Also, where's Wulfric to welcome Iowa back? lol

[rafta_rafta]

God bless the freiwal! Such a beautiful freiwal, folks, like none you've ever seen. And it's going to grow BIGGER in the next few cycles, BELIEVE me.

So what are you saying ..... that the Firewall just got two feet higher ?

BUILD THAT WALL... BUILD THAT WALL!

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

God bless the freiwal! Such a beautiful freiwal, folks, like none you've ever seen. And it's going to grow BIGGER in the next few cycles, BELIEVE me.

So what are you saying ..... that the Firewall just got two feet higher ?

BUILD THAT WALL... BUILD THAT WALL!

We're gonna build a 322 EV freiwal.  AND WE'RE GONNA MAKE REINCE PRIEBUS PAY FOR IT!!

[ProudModerate2]

God bless the freiwal! Such a beautiful freiwal, folks, like none you've ever seen. And it's going to grow BIGGER in the next few cycles, BELIEVE me.

So what are you saying ..... that the Firewall just got two feet higher ?

BUILD THAT WALL... BUILD THAT WALL!

We're gonna build a 322 EV freiwal.  AND WE'RE GONNA MAKE REINCE PRIEBUS PAY FOR IT!!

LMAO !

[Xing]

God bless the freiwal! Such a beautiful freiwal, folks, like none you've ever seen. And it's going to grow BIGGER in the next few cycles, BELIEVE me.

So what are you saying ..... that the Firewall just got two feet higher ?

BUILD THAT WALL... BUILD THAT WALL!

We're gonna build a 322 EV freiwal.  AND WE'RE GONNA MAKE REINCE PRIEBUS PAY FOR IT!!

We have a winner, folks.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is awesome.

[ursulahx]

Feet on the ground, folks; still over a month to go.

[BoAtlantis]

God bless the freiwal! Such a beautiful freiwal, folks, like none you've ever seen. And it's going to grow BIGGER in the next few cycles, BELIEVE me.

So what are you saying ..... that the Firewall just got two feet higher ?

BUILD THAT WALL... BUILD THAT WALL!

We're gonna build a 322 EV freiwal.  AND WE'RE GONNA MAKE REINCE PRIEBUS PAY FOR IT!!

I'm dying after reading this. lol

[ApatheticAustrian]

Feet on the ground, folks; still over a month to go.

yeah but a part of it will be over in 2-3 weeks...early voting is praiseworthy.

if tomorrow goes fine for clinton......the third debate will be a trump disaster.

[Gass3268]

Since the 1st debate (September 26) there has been a:

- 46.5 point swing towards Clinton in the polls-plus model
- 54 point swing towards Clinton in the polls-only model
- 70.6 point swing towards Clinton in the now-cast

[Wisconsin+17]

Well, this is my official projection

Right now Hillary leads with lean Democrat with 273 after all the leans. Trump has to win all 5 of the remaining tossups, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Arizona and North Carolina.

Hillary is up in Florida, North Carolina and Nevada, Trump is up in Arizona and Ohio still.

I estimate Trump's chance of victory at 2 percent.

[BlueSwan]

God bless the freiwal! Such a beautiful freiwal, folks, like none you've ever seen. And it's going to grow BIGGER in the next few cycles, BELIEVE me.

So what are you saying ..... that the Firewall just got two feet higher ?

BUILD THAT WALL... BUILD THAT WALL!

We're gonna build a 322 EV freiwal.  AND WE'RE GONNA MAKE REINCE PRIEBUS PAY FOR IT!!

Props for this!

[dspNY]

Arizona moves to exactly 50-50 on polls-only

[heatcharger]

Arizona moves to exactly 50-50 on polls-only

But you can tell it has the slightest of a red tinge possible. UNFAIR!

[Gass3268]

Clinton is up 5.4% (+0.3 since yesterday) in the polls-only national polls average, highest she's been since August 29.

Also Johnson has dropped a full percentage point since October 1, 2 full points since September 14. If the current trend continues he should be around 4% by election day.