538 Model Megathread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 01, 2024, 06:07:58 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  538 Model Megathread		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 25 26 27 28 29 [30] 31 32 33 34 35 ... 49
Author Topic: 538 Model Megathread  (Read 83562 times)
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #725 on: October 10, 2016, 10:25:04 PM »
It might take a while to calculate, but I think two-party vote percentage might be the best thing to look at.
Logged
Sorenroy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,701
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -5.91

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #726 on: October 11, 2016, 09:25:02 AM »
In the polls-plus model, the election is now >80% Clinton with Clinton also >80% in every single one of the freiwal states. Georgia has also dipped (slightly) below 80% once again.
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #727 on: October 11, 2016, 09:46:09 AM »
Come on, Arizona!
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,664
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #728 on: October 11, 2016, 12:10:44 PM »
Trump dropped down into the teens (19.1%) in the Polls-Plus forecast as of today for the first time ever!
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #729 on: October 11, 2016, 03:34:44 PM »
Quote from: AKCreative on October 11, 2016, 12:10:44 PM
Trump dropped down into the teens (19.1%) in the Polls-Plus forecast as of today for the first time ever!

I think he dipped below 20% a couple of times in the last several days.
Logged
Smeulders
Rookie
**
Posts: 108
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #730 on: October 12, 2016, 03:13:03 AM »
Is anyone else waiting on the inclusion of the recent Utah poll in the 538 model? It's close to a 3 way tie, and I'm wondering how the model will handle that. Of course it is only one data point, but it should produce some major changes.
Logged
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #731 on: October 12, 2016, 06:47:53 AM »
Quote from: Smeulders on October 12, 2016, 03:13:03 AM
Is anyone else waiting on the inclusion of the recent Utah poll in the 538 model? It's close to a 3 way tie, and I'm wondering how the model will handle that. Of course it is only one data point, but it should produce some major changes.
FiveThirtyEight's model isn't set up to handle McMullin well, but no the poll hasn't been added yet.
Logged
rafta_rafta
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 926


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #732 on: October 12, 2016, 06:54:44 AM »
Can McMuffin/Clinton win Utah... would that close any feasible path for Trump to the presidency?
Logged
LLR
LongLiveRock
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,956


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #733 on: October 12, 2016, 07:34:29 AM »
Quote from: rafta_rafta on October 12, 2016, 06:54:44 AM
Can McMuffin/Clinton win Utah... would that close any feasible path for Trump to the presidency?

He's losing by 6-7. I think any feasible path he has is long down the gutter
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,779


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #734 on: October 12, 2016, 08:00:09 AM »
...and there Clinton broke 90% in the now-cast!
Logged
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,734
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #735 on: October 12, 2016, 08:07:36 AM »
Quote from: rafta_rafta on October 12, 2016, 06:54:44 AM
Can McMuffin/Clinton win Utah... would that close any feasible path for Trump to the presidency?

It seems 538 isn't including McMullen in their calculations. That might even be helping Trump in their model af this point.
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #736 on: October 12, 2016, 10:16:16 AM »
Something to note: Polls-only has both ME and NE unified.  I'd be kind of disappointed if there's no CD split on either, TBH.
Logged
Lachi
lok1999
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,353
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -1.06, S: -3.02

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #737 on: October 12, 2016, 02:27:31 PM »
AZ IS NOW BLUE IN THE POLLS-ONLY!!!
Logged
Blackacre
Spenstar3D
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -7.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #738 on: October 12, 2016, 02:36:05 PM »
Notably, while the Presidential model has Clinton gaining ground for the past few weeks, the Senate model seems to flux between Dem 50.1% favorite and Dem 57% favorite... often over the course of a single day!

Though in fairness, 538's 2012 model actually miscalled two senate races; the Dems won Montana and ND when 538 had them losing
Logged
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #739 on: October 12, 2016, 05:13:48 PM »
Quote from: Figueira on October 10, 2016, 10:25:04 PM
It might take a while to calculate, but I think two-party vote percentage might be the best thing to look at.
I did exactly as you requested. Here is the two party swing map between 538's polls only model and 2012. Not too much of a difference, although the Great Lakes area looks much better now.
Logged
Sorenroy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,701
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -5.91

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #740 on: October 12, 2016, 05:24:30 PM »
Quote from: Eleven on October 12, 2016, 10:16:16 AM
Something to note: Polls-only has both ME and NE unified.  I'd be kind of disappointed if there's no CD split on either, TBH.

Only on the national overview. Click on one of the states and you will be able to look at the CD model.
Logged
nclib
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,300
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #741 on: October 12, 2016, 05:58:00 PM »
Wow it has ME-2 and NE-2 going opposite of their respective states.
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #742 on: October 12, 2016, 09:06:13 PM »
NH now to the left of MN. Congrats TNV?
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #743 on: October 12, 2016, 09:08:02 PM »
Quote from: New Canadaland on October 12, 2016, 05:13:48 PM
Quote from: Figueira on October 10, 2016, 10:25:04 PM
It might take a while to calculate, but I think two-party vote percentage might be the best thing to look at.
I did exactly as you requested. Here is the two party swing map between 538's polls only model and 2012. Not too much of a difference, although the Great Lakes area looks much better now.



Interesting. Thanks.
Logged
pppolitics
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,851


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #744 on: October 12, 2016, 09:50:08 PM »
« Edited: October 12, 2016, 09:52:47 PM by pppolitics »


The Trump might get trump in Arizona.
Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #745 on: October 13, 2016, 07:14:32 AM »
Map of margin:

Map of chance:
Logged
Blackacre
Spenstar3D
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,172
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -7.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #746 on: October 13, 2016, 07:41:39 AM »
Interesting that Arizona's gone back in Clinton's direction after leaving her after the convention bounce but Georgia hasn't
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,975


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #747 on: October 13, 2016, 08:14:17 AM »
Quote from: Spenstar on October 13, 2016, 07:41:39 AM
Interesting that Arizona's gone back in Clinton's direction after leaving her after the convention bounce but Georgia hasn't

Mormon collapse would account for it.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,528
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #748 on: October 13, 2016, 08:38:51 AM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on October 13, 2016, 08:14:17 AM
Quote from: Spenstar on October 13, 2016, 07:41:39 AM
Interesting that Arizona's gone back in Clinton's direction after leaving her after the convention bounce but Georgia hasn't

Mormon collapse would account for it.

Lack of recent polling in Georgia too.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,779


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #749 on: October 13, 2016, 09:21:59 AM »
Yeah I think it's mainly a polling issue. Hopefully we'll soon get more polls out of Georgia, South Carolina and Texas.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 25 26 27 28 29 [30] 31 32 33 34 35 ... 49  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.047 seconds with 12 queries.