538 Model Megathread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 07:51:56 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  538 Model Megathread
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 49
Author Topic: 538 Model Megathread  (Read 82812 times)
Redban
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,921


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: June 29, 2016, 12:51:22 PM »

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/statistician-nate-silver-gives-clinton-a-near-80-probability-of-defeating-trump/

Nate Silver Gives Clinton a Near 80% Probability of Defeating Trump

“We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver said. “There’s a lot of football left to be played. She’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2016, 01:02:13 PM »

Very bold.
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2016, 01:04:08 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

To be fair and balanced, link to NYT article which sources one garbage QU poll.

Good jorb.
Logged
Reginald
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 802
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2016, 01:04:31 PM »

Oh no...
Logged
Tartarus Sauce
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,363
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: June 29, 2016, 01:05:00 PM »

That's relatively in tune with how the betting markets currently split it.
Logged
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: June 29, 2016, 01:06:04 PM »

It's a lot more valid than his previous prediction that Trump has almost no chance in the primary. That prediction turned out to be bad because all of the primary polls went against it. Meanwhile all of the polls are on Clinton's side in the general.
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,233
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: June 29, 2016, 01:33:36 PM »

Here it is:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Beautiful electoral map, projected vote shares, chances of winning states, surprisingly includes Gary Johnson, all with different models, based purely on polls, another factoring in economic and historical data.

Here's Nate Silver's explanation of his methodology:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-has-a-20-percent-chance-of-becoming-president/

I'm gonna have fun looking at this every day for the next 4 months.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: June 29, 2016, 01:36:12 PM »

Other than AZ, it looks ok ...

I'd give AZ to Trump in a close race, because the state's laws that will block Latinos from voting.
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: June 29, 2016, 01:37:25 PM »

It's a lot more valid than his previous prediction that Trump has almost no chance in the primary. That prediction turned out to be bad because all of the primary polls went against it. Meanwhile all of the polls are on Clinton's side in the general.

It's a pretty good prediction based on where the polls have been, plus the amount of time that is left.  If it were September and we had poll numbers like these, I'd put the odds of a Clinton victory at 95%.  October: 99%.  Eve of the election: 99.9%.
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: June 29, 2016, 01:38:36 PM »

ARIZONA!!
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: June 29, 2016, 01:39:48 PM »

Super interesting. Looking forward to see how it changes through the campaign.
Logged
catographer
Megameow
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,498
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: June 29, 2016, 01:40:30 PM »

I'll be looking at this way too often too haha. I decided to map a map of the margin of victory in each state for his Polls-plus Nov. 8 model. Compared to 2012, the map is the same except that the margin of victory in most states has decreased for the victor. Maybe this is because of Johnson; the vast majority of states in '92 were won by under 10 points.

538 model


2012 election
Logged
user12345
wifikitten
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,135
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: June 29, 2016, 01:41:21 PM »

Johnson will be lucky to break 3% nationally.
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: June 29, 2016, 01:41:42 PM »

Other than AZ, it looks ok ...

I'd give AZ to Trump in a close race, because the state's laws that will block Latinos from voting.

well if you look at the polls plus version, the model gives AZ and NC to Trump. So the 'projection' is that 2016 would be exactly the same as 2012 from an EV point of view. However, currently the model has Clinton ahead in AZ and NC with polls only and 'now-cast'
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: June 29, 2016, 01:47:47 PM »

Looking further down:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wait...

Whaaaaaa?HuhHuh
Logged
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,696
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: June 29, 2016, 01:50:35 PM »

Seems a bit bullish on Johnson. I don't think that he'll be quite on par with his polling. If he keeps the 10% or so that he's been getting, I could see him breaking 5%.
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,523
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: June 29, 2016, 01:53:10 PM »

Why is Gary Johnson getting such large percentages in states where he isn't yet on the ballot, particularly in the now-cast model?
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,719
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: June 29, 2016, 01:54:07 PM »

Looking further down:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wait...

Whaaaaaa?HuhHuh

I saw that. And they have "Clinton winning a 2012 Romney state" at a lower percentage, even with the model showing her currently winning two of them.
Logged
Angel of Death
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,411
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: June 29, 2016, 01:54:50 PM »

Does this mean everyone loves Nate Silver again?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: June 29, 2016, 01:55:02 PM »

Why is Gary Johnson getting such large percentages in states where he isn't yet on the ballot, particularly in the now-cast model?

Johnson will likely be on the ballot in almost all states. The remaining states where he's not on yet have relatively low signature requirements.

Also, Jill Stein will be on most state ballots too.
Logged
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: June 29, 2016, 02:04:25 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
I don't think so... that's the 2nd most likely map, after Obama 2012+NC.
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,233
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: June 29, 2016, 02:04:36 PM »

Why is Gary Johnson getting such large percentages in states where he isn't yet on the ballot, particularly in the now-cast model?

Agreed. I think it's very possible he'll hit double digits in states like UT, AK, MT, ID, VT, and ME, aka strong Perot and Nader states, he won't even hit 5% in any state in the Deep South.
Logged
Boston Bread
New Canadaland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,636
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -5.00, S: -5.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: June 29, 2016, 02:05:07 PM »

Does this mean everyone loves Nate Silver again?
Well, I like that he's actually doing something useful again.
Logged
This account no longer in use.
cxs018
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,282


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: June 29, 2016, 02:06:17 PM »

> Kansas
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,351
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: June 29, 2016, 02:06:39 PM »

Looking further down:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wait...
Whaaaaaa?HuhHuh

I saw that. And they have "Clinton winning a 2012 Romney state" at a lower percentage, even with the model showing her currently winning two of them.

It is strange.
Unsure how they do "the math" for this. You can not click on it for additional detail.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5 6 ... 49  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.045 seconds with 13 queries.