538 Model Megathread

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Happy South Dakota Farmers strike again.

If the price of oil skyrockets above $150/bbl, Clinton may win North Dakota but lose the election.

[The Other Castro]

The Nowcast now has NE-2 at Clinton +0.2%

[Likely Voter]

Here is how Polls-Plus sorts the battlegrounds...

MI   D+7.3     
WI   D+7.1       
MN   D+5.3     
VA   D+5.3       
CO   D+4.6       
PA   D+3.7

NATL AVG   D+3.6   
   
NV   D+3.0       
NH   D+2.3       
ME2   D+1.7     
IA   D+1.6   
FL   D+1.5     
OH   D+1.2       
NC   R+0.0   
AZ   R+3.7       
NE2   R+3.8       
GA   R+4.4       
MO   R+5.6 
 

[Gass3268]

Hillary is now at 73.3% in the Polls-Plus Model. Ties her peak from July 9th, before the post-Comey Press Conference polls kicked in.

[ProudModerate2]

Man, the now-cast map is absolutely bluetiful ! And he hasn't even entered in the FL Suffolk poll.

LOL.
I like that .... "bluetiful."
8-)

[JerryArkansas]

The Now cast now has her ahead in both Arizona and GA.  God is great.

[LLR]

After AZ and GA, the next state to flip is.... SOUTH CAROLINA! Y'all better wake up - I've been saying this for too long!

[ProudModerate2]

Wow.
Look at the charts for all three models.
The trend lines on how things have shifted in the last 6 to 8 days is dramatic !
I mean Hillary's numbers are shooting-up like a rocket, and trump's are falling off the cliff.
Incredible !

[Xing]

Happy South Dakota Farmers strike again.

Yaaaas! If Hillary wins by enough, they can pull off another surprise win for her.

[Erc]

After AZ and GA, the next state to flip is.... SOUTH CAROLINA! Y'all better wake up - I've been saying this for too long!

We here on Atlas seemed to disagree, with it placing a rather distant 4th among next-tier pickups (behind Alaska, Montana, and Texas; IN/MO/MS/UT not included in that poll).

What's this based off of?  Some close polls from back in November?  South Carolina, like other heavily racially polarized Southern states with relatively little Yankee influx, doesn't seem like a great target.

[Erc]

Here's a map that 538 seems to think is as equally likely as a 270-268 Trump win (according to the ever-excitable Now-Cast):

468 Clinton - 70 Trump (assuming NE-1 and NE-2 for Clinton).

EDIT: next target is apparently Kansas.

[Dr. Arch]

Here's a map that 538 seems to think is as equally likely as a 270-268 Trump win (according to the ever-excitable Now-Cast):

468 Clinton - 70 Trump (assuming NE-1 and NE-2 for Clinton).

Beautiful. Blue down to the bare bones.

[2952-0-0]

What makes AZ more Republican than its surrounding states? Doesn't it also have a strong Latino population?

[Xing]

What makes AZ more Republican than its surrounding states? Doesn't it also have a strong Latino population?

The Latino population is younger than in other states (many are too young to vote,) and a lower percentage turn out than in surrounding states. Also, white voters are older and more conservative than in nearby states.

[Dr. Arch]

The Now Model has gone coo coo for Clinton Puffs, giving HRC a 91.5% chance to win the election with all swing states and some lean states going D.

[Speed of Sound]

The Now Model has gone coo coo for Clinton Puffs, giving HRC a 91.5% chance to win the election with all swing states and some lean states going D.

Which makes sense; the now-cast currently has it as nearly an 8 pt race (45.1/37.5). I'd expect to win more than 9/10 times, too, if the election day polling showed those kinds of numbers. The other 2 forecasts think it's ~5-6 pts.

[ProudModerate2]

The Now Model has gone coo coo for Clinton Puffs, giving HRC a 91.5% chance to win the election with all swing states and some lean states going D.

Which makes sense; the now-cast currently has it as nearly an 8 pt race (45.1/37.5). I'd expect to win more than 9/10 times, too, if the election day polling showed those kinds of numbers. The other 2 forecasts think it's ~5-6 pts.

The Now-Cast model has creeped-up to 92.5%.
More than likely because of the inclusion of the new GA poll released today.

[Angel of Death]

Clinton now also ahead in Arizona according to the polls-only forecast. Still, how ridiculously polarized is this country when only a handful of states can possibly flip given the expected vote margin? For a stunning contrast, compare with the 1988 election.

[Wisconsin+17]

Wow, a prediction that's more D than mine. I don't think SD or ND go Clinton even in the Hillaryslide.

[The Other Castro]

Nowcast now has Clinton leading in AZ, GA, and SC (!)

[Dr. Arch]

Nowcast now has Clinton leading in AZ, GA, and SC (!)

Ok, we need an SC poll now. Never thought I would be asking for one in 2016, lol.

[Devout Centrist]

The Now Model has gone coo coo for Clinton Puffs, giving HRC a 91.5% chance to win the election with all swing states and some lean states going D.

It's called a Now Cast for a reason.

[Xing]

The now cast also has Trump just barely winning MO, and TX is within three percent!

[LLR]

Nowcast now has Clinton leading in AZ, GA, and SC (!)

Ok, we need an SC poll now. Never thought I would be asking for one in 2016, lol.

You should've listened. You all should've listened!

[Holmes]

Wow, there's no way Clinton wins South Carolina unless she starts investing in the state and Trump has another implosion like this before November 8th. But the fact that we're talking about #BattlegroundSouthCarolina pretty much says all there is to say about how this election will turn out.