538 Model Megathread

[dspNY]

Gary Johnson just hit 10% on the nowcast for the first time

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Here's a map of where Trump's chances are better and worse than his chance of winning the EC, per polls plus:

Every state where Trump's chance is over 27% (their national chance for him) is in blue.  Their current pure tossups (within 45-55) are Iowa, North Carolina, and ME-02

[Wisconsin+17]

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I just can't see him taking NH and the Maine seat.

[Classic Conservative]

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I just can't see him taking NH and the Maine seat.

And I can't see him losing Louisiana

[Brittain33]

I wonder how much of a hit Hillary will take today from the Emerson PA/MI/OH polls.

[Wells]

I wonder how much of a hit Hillary will take today from the Emerson PA/MI/OH polls.

They're a B rated pollster with a sizeable R bias, so I'm not really sure. Maybe she'll lose .5% or something like that.

[Gass3268]

I wonder how much of a hit Hillary will take today from the Emerson PA/MI/OH polls.

They're a B rated pollster with a sizeable R bias, so I'm not really sure. Maybe she'll lose .5% or something like that.

Only a .1% drop, but she had a couple decent tracking polls.

[dspNY]

I wonder how much of a hit Hillary will take today from the Emerson PA/MI/OH polls.

They're a B rated pollster with a sizeable R bias, so I'm not really sure. Maybe she'll lose .5% or something like that.

Only a .1% drop, but she had a couple decent tracking polls.

It got canceled out by the UPI poll which had a one day swing of 3 points in her direction

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Yeah, because just three polls from one B pollster that didn't poll since April is not enough as evidence for polls-only/plus models.

They might indicate something. Or not.

But everybody's waiting for Labour Day's polls anyway

[Erich Maria Remarque]

After Arizona Clinton +1 poll, it's now showing 20.5%
Seems like their system updates pretty slow.

[dspNY]

After Arizona Clinton +1 poll, it's now showing 20.5%
Seems like their system updates pretty slow.

How could that be...a tossup poll in Arizona should not improve trumps chances of winning. Nate has some serious bugs in his model here

[AGA]

The polls-only model gives Clinton a higher chance of winning NE-02 than ME-02. Interesting, but probably due to the poll of ME-02 that had Trump up by one point.

[dspNY]

Back to Arizona's tossup poll improving trump's chances by 2% nationally...it's not like Arizona is historically a Lean D state that Trump is turning red

[Erich Maria Remarque]

All right! I figured it out. Their latest polls:

AUG. 1   OH Predictive Insights / MBQF   Clinton +3
JUN. 20   OH Predictive Insights / MBQF   Clinton +4

Since 538's model is based both on level and trend, this poll showed a positive trend for Trump and drove his chances little bit up.

[Figueira]

The polls-only model gives Clinton a higher chance of winning NE-02 than ME-02. Interesting, but probably due to the poll of ME-02 that had Trump up by one point.

It's because of that ridiculous Ipsos poll that had Clinton winning Nebraska. There has been barely any polling from Nebraska this year.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

New A+ Monmouth poll is showing Clinton +7 from (+13) for 4 weeks ago.

I guess, Trump will get 1-3 pps now. What do you think?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Intresting, that all the models started converging (don't really understand why).

Probability that Trump wins,
30/08, now:

Polls-plus 26.9%
Polls-only 22.7%
Now-cast 24%

Polls-plus model was pretty stable. Trump gained just 3-4 pps over the last 2 weeks.
In Polls-only and Now-cast Trump gained 10 and 14 pps, respectively, over the last 2 weeks.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

In the now-cast, 538 now says that it is exactly 50-50 in Iowa.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Intresting, that all the models started converging (don't really understand why).

Probability that Trump wins,
30/08, now:

Polls-plus 26.9%
Polls-only 22.7%
Now-cast 24%

Polls-plus model was pretty stable. Trump gained just 3-4 pps over the last 2 weeks.
In Polls-only and Now-cast Trump gained 10 and 14 pps, respectively, over the last 2 weeks.

We should expect all three models converging as Election Day approaches.  Polls-only factors in how much polls can drift between now and 11/8, and polls-plus figures in factors like convention bounces (which we're now past) and possible changes in economic conditions (the time for which is running out).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Silver tweeted a nice summary of the difference between 538's models and some of the other well-known ones.  https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770613589992280065

[elcorazon]

Iowa seems strange to me. 50/50 in nowcast, but in Polls Only Hillary is at 60 and in Polls Plus Hillary is at 53. Seems very strange to say if the election were held today it is a total tossup, yet, somehow JUST USING POLLS, Hillary has a 60% shot on election day??? thoughts?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Iowa seems strange to me. 50/50 in nowcast, but in Polls Only Hillary is at 60 and in Polls Plus Hillary is at 53. Seems very strange to say if the election were held today it is a total tossup, yet, somehow JUST USING POLLS, Hillary has a 60% shot on election day??? thoughts?

Polls Only model is not aggresive. On the election you in generelly don't give any weight at all for polls older than say 5-6 days. Simplied.

[elcorazon]

Iowa seems strange to me. 50/50 in nowcast, but in Polls Only Hillary is at 60 and in Polls Plus Hillary is at 53. Seems very strange to say if the election were held today it is a total tossup, yet, somehow JUST USING POLLS, Hillary has a 60% shot on election day??? thoughts?

Polls Only model is not aggresive. On the election you in generelly don't give any weight at all for polls older than say 5-6 days. Simplied.

I'm not following. Polls Only model is based on ONLY POLLS. Are you saying Polls Only uses different polls than Nowcast? I would think if polls show if election were TODAY the results are 50/50, but if we wait 2 months, Hillary is more likely to win, something doesn't really make sense. I could deal with 53% or something like that, but 60% is pretty significantly different, no?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Iowa seems strange to me. 50/50 in nowcast, but in Polls Only Hillary is at 60 and in Polls Plus Hillary is at 53. Seems very strange to say if the election were held today it is a total tossup, yet, somehow JUST USING POLLS, Hillary has a 60% shot on election day??? thoughts?

Polls Only model is not aggressive. On the election you in generally don't give any weight at all for polls older than say 5-6 days. Simplied.

I'm not following. Polls Only model is based on ONLY POLLS. Are you saying Polls Only uses different polls than Nowcast? I would think if polls show if election were TODAY the results are 50/50, but if we wait 2 months, Hillary is more likely to win, something doesn't really make sense. I could deal with 53% or something like that, but 60% is pretty significantly different, no?

Just pay attention on how the weights change when you switch between different models.

[Mr. Morden]

Iowa seems strange to me. 50/50 in nowcast, but in Polls Only Hillary is at 60 and in Polls Plus Hillary is at 53. Seems very strange to say if the election were held today it is a total tossup, yet, somehow JUST USING POLLS, Hillary has a 60% shot on election day??? thoughts?

Polls Only model is not aggresive. On the election you in generelly don't give any weight at all for polls older than say 5-6 days. Simplied.

I'm not following. Polls Only model is based on ONLY POLLS. Are you saying Polls Only uses different polls than Nowcast? I would think if polls show if election were TODAY the results are 50/50, but if we wait 2 months, Hillary is more likely to win, something doesn't really make sense. I could deal with 53% or something like that, but 60% is pretty significantly different, no?

The polls being used are the same, but the weights they’re given are different.  If the election were today, then polls that are just coming out would be weighted much more heavily than those from two weeks ago.  Whereas if the election is 10 weeks from now, then, well, there’s no reason to weight polls from 10 weeks before the election *that* much more than polls 12 weeks before the election.