538 Model Megathread

[elcorazon]

Trump now at 41.3% in the Now-cast, winning NV, IA, OH, FL, NC and ME-02.

And NH is next to swing

CO is actually closer to swinging than NH according to the nowcast.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Trump now at 41.3% in the Now-cast, winning NV, IA, OH, FL, NC and ME-02.

And NH is next to swing

CO is actually closer to swinging than NH according to the nowcast.

Because they added Emerson. But I think that WI and NH are next to join Trump "Deplorables" Train.

[NOVA Green]

538 Model (Including the Fox Ntl and State Polls Today)


Polls Plus- 59.6- 40.3 Clinton
Polls Only- 60.3- 39.7 Clinton
Now-Cast-- 56.7-43.3 Clinton

Dramatic collapse in Clinton numbers, most significantly in the Now-Cast.

[eric82oslo]

I just made this list, showing the trendlines so far among states compared to the 2012 results (using the current 538 Polls Only):


Utah: D+33.3%

Kansas: D+12.3%
Idaho: D+11.8%
Oklahoma: D+11.7%
Wyoming: D+10.3%

Texas: D+8.3%
Arkansas: D+8.2%
Kentucky: D+7.6%
West Virginia: D+7.6%
Arizona: D+6.6%
Nebraska: D+5.9%
South Dakota: D+5.7%

Alaska: D+4.5%
Georgia: D+4.3%
Montana: D+3.5%

North Carolina: D+3.0%
South Carolina: D+2.9%
Tennessee: D+2.7%
Missouri: D+2.6%
Virginia: D+2.5%
Louisiana: D+2.0%

Alabama: D+1.0%
North Dakota: D+0.7%
Florida: D+0.6%

Indiana: No change

Oregon: R+0.1%
Minnesota: R+0.3%
Pennsylvania: R+0.3%
Colorado: R+0.9%
New Hampshire: R+1.0%

Wisconsin: R+1.5%
Washington: R+1.8%
New Mexico: R+2.0%
California: R+2.1%
Mississippi: R+2.3%
Ohio: R+2.5%
Illinois: R+2.8%

Massachusetts: R+3.3%
Maryland: R+3.9%
Michigan: R+3.9%
Nevada: R+4.7%
Connecticut: R+4.9%

Iowa: R+6.3%
Maine: R+7.3%
Delaware: R+7.4%
New Jersey: R+8.2%

New York: R+10.5%
Vermont: R+12.5%
Hawaii: R+13.3%
Rhode Island: R+16.8%

D.C.: R+38.1%


PS: I've emboldened the top ten tipping point states as of today. That is, the ten states that comes the closest to the current center according to 538's "snake graph".

Some possible explanations for what these numbers basically are showing:

1) The impact of very strong numbers for third parties
2) The strong impact of undecided voters (most states will ultimately be less close than what they appear now)
3) The unusual strenght of Trump in northeastern states and Clinton's strenght in the South (with the exception of Mississippi)
4) The complete fallout of Trump in Mormon states like Utah, Idaho and Arizona and total collapse in the great plains states, which were Cruz's forte in the primaries
5) Clinton's strenght in most diverse states (again with the exception of Mississippi and the northeast), Trump's strenght in mostly white states
6) A less polarized electorate, driven by the fact that Trump is historically unpopular among Republicans, while Clinton is much less popular among Democrats than Obama was

I will try to update this list in a few weeks time, either after the first debate or the second debate I think. At the very least after the last debate.

[KingSweden]

Interesting stuff! Thanks for compiling that

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This is my DON'T PANIC image of the day.

Momentum is not a thing, and despite things getting very close between Obama and Romney in mid-October, Obama cruised safely to victory.

[Classic Conservative]

This is my DON'T PANIC image of the day.

Momentum is not a thing, and despite things getting very close between Obama and Romney in mid-October, Obama cruised safely to victory.

Mid-October this is Mid-September.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This is my DON'T PANIC image of the day.

Momentum is not a thing, and despite things getting very close between Obama and Romney in mid-October, Obama cruised safely to victory.

Mid-October this is Mid-September.

Yes, which means Clinton has more than twice as much time bounce back as Obama did four years ago.

This cycle, if Clinton is within a point of Trump on Oct. 12, the entire AF will be screaming that the sky is falling and it's all over.

[Angel of Death]

Trump is now at his most favorable yet in the polls-plus forecast.

[Xing]

On a side note, I'm disappointed Nate isn't doing his "Road to 270" series again this year. I always looked forward to in-depth analysis, and justification for his projections, even if I disagreed in some cases.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

When are they releasing their Senate model?

[KingSweden]

On a side note, I'm disappointed Nate isn't doing his "Road to 270" series again this year. I always looked forward to in-depth analysis, and justification for his projections, even if I disagreed in some cases.

Yeah his state breakdowns were great

[NOVA Green]

I just made this list, showing the trendlines so far among states compared to the 2012 results (using the current 538 NowCast):


Utah: D+33.3%

Kansas: D+12.3%
Idaho: D+11.8%
Oklahoma: D+11.7%
Wyoming: D+10.3%

Texas: D+8.3%
Arkansas: D+8.2%
Kentucky: D+7.6%
West Virginia: D+7.6%
Arizona: D+6.6%
Nebraska: D+5.9%
South Dakota: D+5.7%

Alaska: D+4.5%
Georgia: D+4.3%
Montana: D+3.5%

North Carolina: D+3.0%
South Carolina: D+2.9%
Tennessee: D+2.7%
Missouri: D+2.6%
Virginia: D+2.5%
Louisiana: D+2.0%

Alabama: D+1.0%
North Dakota: D+0.7%
Florida: D+0.6%

Indiana: No change

Oregon: R+0.1%
Minnesota: R+0.3%
Pennsylvania: R+0.3%
Colorado: R+0.9%
New Hampshire: R+1.0%

Wisconsin: R+1.5%
Washington: R+1.8%
New Mexico: R+2.0%
California: R+2.1%
Mississippi: R+2.3%
Ohio: R+2.5%
Illinois: R+2.8%

Massachusetts: R+3.3%
Maryland: R+3.9%
Michigan: R+3.9%
Nevada: R+4.7%
Connecticut: R+4.9%

Iowa: R+6.3%
Maine: R+7.3%
Delaware: R+7.4%
New Jersey: R+8.2%

New York: R+10.5%
Vermont: R+12.5%
Hawaii: R+13.3%
Rhode Island: R+16.8%

D.C.: R+38.1%


PS: I've emboldened the top ten tipping point states as of today. That is, the ten states that comes the closest to the current center according to 538's "snake graph".

Some possible explanations for what these numbers basically are showing:

1) The impact of very strong numbers for third parties
2) The strong impact of undecided voters (most states will ultimately be less close than what they appear now)
3) The unusual strenght of Trump in northeastern states and Clinton's strenght in the South (with the exception of Mississippi)
4) The complete fallout of Trump in Mormon states like Utah, Idaho and Arizona and total collapse in the great plains states, which were Cruz's forte in the primaries
5) Clinton's strenght in most diverse states (again with the exception of Mississippi and the northeast), Trump's strenght in mostly white states
6) A less polarized electorate, driven by the fact that Trump is historically unpopular among Republicans, while Clinton is much less popular among Democrats than Obama was

I will try to update this list in a few weeks time, either after the first debate or the second debate I think. At the very least after the last debate.

This is great!

Thanks for running the numbers on this....

It helps explain some of the weird polling numbers we have seen this election season (Texas/Kansas much closer than usual, weird numbers from reliably Dem states in the Northeast/Central Atlantic, etc...).

Key problem for the Dems is that major Clinton gains are concentrated in heavily Republican states, whereas Trump seems be doing significantly better in "swing" or "battleground" states which is where the EVs are in the event of a squeaker election.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

538 wrote an article that partially about this.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-clintons-electoral-map-isnt-as-good-as-obamas/

This is what I was arguing this week. Close Texas, and bigger margins in CA and other noncompetitive states, while tie in nationall polls are really a great news for Trump.

[NOVA Green]

Latest Updates (Haven't posted much for the past two days):

Polls Plus- 59.7-40.3 Hillary
Polls Only- 61.3-38.7 Hillary
Nowcast-  60.4-39.6 Hillary

Marginal improvements for Hillary on Polls-Plus and Polls-Only and a major increase for Hillary in the Nowcast.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Trump back above 40 in all three models.  In 2012, Romney was in low single-digits going into the first debate, so Trump seems to be in much better shape than his forerunner.

[PaperKooper]

Polls Plus - 58.5-41.5 Hillary
Polls Only - 59.3-40.7 Hillary
Nowcast -  57.6-42.4 Hillary

Trump's reached a record high in the Polls Plus model. 

[KingSweden]

Trump back above 40 in all three models.  In 2012, Romney was in low single-digits going into the first debate, so Trump seems to be in much better shape than his forerunner.

Obama's convention bounce hadn't really subsided by then, though. Much less time between conventions and debates, so it's hard to make an apples to apples comparison.

[Angel of Death]

Hillary just "lost" Nevada in polls-plus.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hillary just "lost" Nevada in polls-plus.

She lost that days ago. What you are looking at is the polls-only model, which she did just lose NV in. Yes, polls-only is the "default" view.

[rafta_rafta]

The first debate is crucial to Hillary's chances

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Massive Trump surge mostly due to Ipsos tracking polls, and that the Florida polls were adjusted to small Clinton leads.

Nowcast: 47.9%
Polls-plus: 44.1%
Polls-only: 43.7%

This is a new all-time high for Trump in polls-plus.

By the way, Trump's nearing 80% in ME-02 nowcast.

[bilaps]

They weighted Monmouth poll pretty modestly cause of a samling size i guess. So Trump is still at 55% in FL in polls only.

[Classic Conservative]

Maine and Minnesota have now been put on states to watch.

[Mallow]

I'm not sure what polls are responsible, but 538's model has Trump still surging.