538 Model Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

538's polls-only forecast gives Trump a higher chance of winning ME-02 than NE-02. How accurate is this?

Recent polling in ME-02 shows Trump definitely ahead there.  There isn't any recent data from NE-02, so this is more uncertain.

[NOVA Green]

9/25:

PollsPlus- C- 57.6 %   T- 42.4%
Polls Only- C 58.1%- T- 41.9%
Nowcast- C- 56% T- 44%

[°Leprechaun]

I don't agree with his odds in swing states and if they are correct then Clinton has a much better chance of winning than he says she does.  Today's map agrees with the overall consensus 273-265 and if her chances are as high in states like PA, VA, CO and NH as he says they are she has more than a 58.1% chance of winning. NH is more likely to go Clinton than CO or VA and PA has a better chance than VA. I do think he's right about the overall odds, although they may be even better, unless, as could happen, Trump improves in the next few weeks,  he could even be tied or ahead, which so far hasn't happened yet. NV, FL and other states are closer to 50-50. IA an AZ should be higher. Overall he might be close, but some states are off. IA is the worst prediction although Trump may be above 50% and he could certainly win there, even though it has been pretty reliable for Dems (except, of course 2004).

edit, however all predictions are open to debate because this election is very unpredictable (IA being a good example, because Clinton could still win there). He might be right about NV being the closest, however. Clinton could surprise him. She can still win AZ, NC and IA although she would have to bounce back a little before 11/8. Trump can still win, but only in a razor thin election, at least that's how it looks now. I don't think that he'll win PA, however, as some people seem to think.

[jaichind]

I don't agree with his odds in swing states and if they are correct then Clinton has a much better chance of winning than he says she does.  Today's map agrees with the overall consensus 273-265 and if her chances are as high in states like PA, VA, CO and NH as he says they are she has more than a 58.1% chance of winning. NH is more likely to go Clinton than CO or VA and PA has a better chance than VA. I do think he's right about the overall odds, although they may be even better, unless, as could happen, Trump improves in the next few weeks,  he could even be tied or ahead, which so far hasn't happened yet. NV, FL and other states are closer to 50-50. IA an AZ should be higher. Overall he might be close, but some states are off. IA is the worst prediction although Trump may be above 50% and he could certainly win there, even though it has been pretty reliable for Dems (except, of course 2004).

edit, however all predictions are open to debate because this election is very unpredictable (IA being a good example, because Clinton could still win there). He might be right about NV being the closest, however.

All things equal I agree with you.  I think the model has a much lower correlation factor between results of places like PA VA NH and CO.  If Clinton comes out ahead in one of them then most likely she will win all 4.  In that sense the real chances of a Trump victory should really be in the mid 30s and not above 40%.  On the other hand these numbers does imply that the chances of Trump coming close to winning but not winning will be quite large. 

[°Leprechaun]

jaichind, yes you could be right about Trump's chances being lower than he says, based on what we know, but Silver could end up being close because of the fact that things are likely to change. However, since his model is only based on what we know today he is mistaken to give Trump such high odds overall. I think Clinton certainly has a greater than 33% chance in IA, although as I have said it could be less than 59%.

[°Leprechaun]

By the way, if the 273-265 model is correct Clinton only needs one electoral vote from Maine, and if Trump were to win all four (no way it would happen in a razor thin election) the election would be 269-269.

[°Leprechaun]

Or maybe Clinton can offset any losses in ME with one electoral vote in NE, although I doubt that that will happen. If she wins one in NE she gets all four from ME.

[GeorgiaModerate]

One thing to remember about the 538 models is that they have a "wider" graph of probabilities than some other models (i.e., although they show a greater chance of Trump winning than some, they also have a greater chance of a big Clinton win.)  Nate tweeted about this (https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/780050423470100480):

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[Antonio the Sixth]

LOL

[AGA]

The polls-only model gives Trump a 0.4% chance of winning DC!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Nowcast has ME-02 safer for Trump than Montana.  This is getting bizarre, but probably won't matter at the end of the day!

[KingSweden]

The polls-only model gives Trump a 0.4% chance of winning DC!

So you're saying there's a chance?

[emailking]

Because if, say, she loses NH (the current 538 tipping point state), then she actually has not just one but five backup plans: NV, FL, NC, OH, & IA, all of which are more likely (according to 538) to flip to Clinton than NH is to flip to Trump.

If she loses NH, that doesn't make it any more likely she'll win one of those 5 states then it already is right now. If anything, it's less likely. Losing New Hampshire is the assumption in this scenario. That's unlikely to happen, but if it does, she is more likely to lose than win (at least according to current polling).

I'm not sure that's true, but it doesn't really matter, because you can make that claim about dozens of states.

Well I'm taking the odds from the model at face value.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

TRUMP IS THE FRONTRUNNER

[Classic Conservative]

Trumps up with 54% in the NowCast. He has 48% in both polls only and polls plus!

[Vern]

Lets hope Hillary flops tonight...

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

God help us all

[elcorazon]

race is essentially tied.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

So honored to have the highly educated behind us now in Colorado! A very fit people too. America may actually be the greatest country on earth. Wow! Not even in my wildest dreams has a win happened yet.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

So honored to have the highly educated behind us now in Colorado! A very fit people too. America may actually be the greatest country on earth. Wow! Not even in my wildest dreams has a win happened yet.

What even are you?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

So honored to have the highly educated behind us now in Colorado! A very fit people too. America may actually be the greatest country on earth. Wow! Not even in my wildest dreams has a win happened yet.

What even are you?

An urbane hipster who wants to make America so great, maybe even greater than ever before

[muon2]

The 538 model now has the 272 freiwal for Clinton turned into a 266 freiwal for Trump.

Trump has no states in the now-cast closer than R+2.6. Clinton has 4 states closer than D+2.0: CO, MI, NH, PA. A Clinton win with 272 is still the most probable single outcome, but an additional flip from D to R is more likely than a flip from R to D. So the now-cast has a number of Trump-winning outcomes with nearly the same likelihood as Clinton 272. That just shifts the total number of simulated Trump wins ahead of Clinton wins.

In the polls-only forecast each has two states within 2%: CO D+1.3, FL R+1.6, NV R+1.5, NH D+1.7. That makes it roughly equally likely that states will flip to either candidate from the 272 freiwal scenario. With equal flip possibilities each way, Clinton maintains her position as the favorite in this forecast.

[PaperKooper]

Trump has set a new record high in poll-plus, 48.1%

[Gabagool102]

Trump is doing well in the now-cast, hopefully if he wins the debate he will go up to 60%.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Averaging the three gives Trump a slight lead, 50.3%-49.7%.  I think this is the first time he has led in the average of the three.