538 Model Megathread

[jaichind]

The 538 senate model has also moved over to GOP for Senate control.  Part of it has to do with the fact that 50-50 will be more likely mean GOP control given Trump's chances has surged.  But most of it is just polls moving in GOP direction in the Senate races.

[SirMuxALot]

From The Department of Comically Irrelevant 538 Adjustments:

District of Columbia / SEP.12-25 / CVOTER International
Raw: Clinton +66
Adjusted: Clinton +65

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nowcast has now flipped back to Clinton, 52.4-47.6.  She's at 55.0 in polls-only and 54.2 in polls-plus.

[Gass3268]

The 538 senate model has also moved over to GOP for Senate control.  Part of it has to do with the fact that 50-50 will be more likely mean GOP control given Trump's chances has surged.  But most of it is just polls moving in GOP direction in the Senate races.

Back to the Democrats, lol

[NOVA Green]

Nate's server must be having a virtual meltdown today caused by massive overheating as a result of a massive influx of junk data that his computer algorithms are not designed to handle.

Much like the brains of many of us on this forum that have an OCD order of excessive poll consumption, with a healthy pinch of over-analysis, and THE DATA DOES NOT COMPUTE!!!!

[heatcharger]

I'm throwing away my copy of The Signal and the Noise. Nate clearly can no longer differentiate between the two.

He believes that presidential elections are far more volatile than they actually are.

[Gustaf]

With the latest PPP poll dumn Nowcast is now up to 68% Clinton and she is breaking 60% in all 3.

[Gass3268]

Florida has swung back to Hillary in both the nowcast and polls-only.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Looking at Nate's probability spread, I'm trying to guess the most likely scenarios:

(Now-cast, and note that there is more than one path to any of these)

[elcorazon]

looks to me like 2012 + NC + AZ + NE2 is the single most likely result on here... that seems odd

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WELCOME BACK, FLORIDA!!!!!!

[ProudModerate2]

Florida has swung back to Hillary in both the nowcast and polls-only.

Yes,
But on the Now-Cast model, in addition to Florida swinging towards Hillary, it also now (12:15 pm Eastern time) shows North Carolina and Nevada in Clinton's column.
8-)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

looks to me like 2012 + NC + AZ + NE2 is the single most likely result on here... that seems odd

Only in polls-only.  Now-cast has 2012+NC+NE2 (or other 348s), and polls-plus still has freiwal (or other 272s) as the most likely.

The reason bigger EV results spike is because we have a bunch of states that can move in concert. And the more of them flip, the more likely the next one along will flip.  If Clinton wins 2012+NC, her chances of winning AZ go up tremendously.  In fact, what polls-only is saying is that if Clinton gets at least 348 EVs, she is more likely to win AZ than to lose AZ.

If Clinton loses any of the "swing 5" (FL, NV, NC, IA, OH), her chances in AZ go way down.

Keep in mind as well, the chances of this scenario are only a bit over 1%.  The model has the chances of Clinton winning AZ at 21-28%.

[elcorazon]

looks to me like 2012 + NC + AZ + NE2 is the single most likely result on here... that seems odd

Only in polls-only.  Now-cast has 2012+NC+NE2 (or other 348s), and polls-plus still has freiwal (or other 272s) as the most likely.

The reason bigger EV results spike is because we have a bunch of states that can move in concert. And the more of them flip, the more likely the next one along will flip.  If Clinton wins 2012+NC, her chances of winning AZ go up tremendously.  In fact, what polls-only is saying is that if Clinton gets at least 348 EVs, she is more likely to win AZ than to lose AZ.

If Clinton loses any of the "swing 5" (FL, NV, NC, IA, OH), her chances in AZ go way down.

Keep in mind as well, the chances of this scenario are only a bit over 1%.  The model has the chances of Clinton winning AZ at 21-28%.

yea. I get it. Part of my surprise is that AZ but not GA swinging to Hillary is more likely than both of them. I would almost have expected that the gap after Hillary takes the dicier states like Iowa and Ohio would be greater than the gap between Az and GA.

[Angel of Death]

What's with the high interest in the now-cast? It's there as not much more than a curiosity and it oscillates too much.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

What's with the high interest in the now-cast? It's there as not much more than a curiosity and it oscillates too much.

When movement happens in the polls, the now-cast acts as a leading indicator.  It's not nearly as backward-looking as the other two models.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NEVADA IS BACK!!!!!!!!!!

[Ebsy]

NEVADA IS BACK!!!!!!!!!!

BEAUTIFUL!

Now just waiting for North Carolina and Ohio!

[Lief 🗽]

Good, good. Nate Silver heeled.

[Xing]

NEVADA IS BACK!!!!!!!!!!

Crooked Nate thinks he can unskew polls and factor in demographics, huh?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NEVADA IS BACK!!!!!!!!!!

Crooked Nate thinks he can unskew polls and factor in demographics, huh?

Hillary has a 51% chance. It's not Safe or even Likely D. But Trump has lost his lead.

[dspNY]

Ohio turns back blue on the nowcast

[Wiz in Wis]

NV and FL now blue in all three models.

[ProudModerate2]

Ohio turns back blue on the nowcast

Wow. You are right.
And with that, Hillary's chance of winning the entire election goes up to 76%.
Nice.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Ohio turns back blue on the nowcast

That's a bit bold of the model, considering that Trump has led 6 of 7 polls this month, except for one outlier at the beginning of September.  A 4-point lead nationally (according to the model) justifies contradicting that many state polls?