538 Model Megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: 538 Model Megathread  (Read 83489 times)
Alcon
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Posts: 30,866
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« on: October 10, 2016, 02:18:53 PM »

^ You do realize stuff like that is based on the past relationship between poll results (including apparent outlier polls) and actual results?  He's not just making it up.  You can have a serious conversation about how to handle uncertainty, and how to weight new data vs. fundamental data, but it's kind of lame to criticize a counterintuitive model outcome without providing any real criticism of the underlying assumptions or methodology.
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Alcon
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 30,866
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2016, 07:17:52 AM »


It seems like a lot of FiveThirtyEight's non-main writers are basically there to throw red meat clickbait to its reader base of white liberals.  The formula seems to be:

1. Find an issue that touches on some liberal value, such as disproportionate impacts on minorities, gun violence, whatever.

2. Use fairly obvious statistical evidence to show that something liberals like/dislike does, in fact, have an effect.  Don't necessarily spend a ton of time contextualizing how much impact it does have.

3. Don't actually get into the impact or implications much, so you don't have to address counterarguments.  Just keep to the article limited to doing (2) to accomplish (1).

It's also kind of funny how, in many articles, they'll put in a lot of caveats about how there might be other, missing data...but then on something like their "voter fraud barely exists" article, the entire article is premised on ignoring that possibility.

Anyway yeahhh not a fan
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