538 Model Megathread

[Boston Bread]

It's a lot more valid than his previous prediction that Trump has almost no chance in the primary. That prediction turned out to be bad because all of the primary polls went against it. Meanwhile all of the polls are on Clinton's side in the general.

[Boston Bread]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don't think so... that's the 2nd most likely map, after Obama 2012+NC.

[Boston Bread]

Does this mean everyone loves Nate Silver again?

Well, I like that he's actually doing something useful again.

[Boston Bread]

Polls plus is a proven failure. I'll take the bettors consensus over that at this point, and I find them to be really irrational and uninformed/out of touch generally

No. Different polls plus than the primary model.

Note: polls plus is identical to the model that called 49/50 in 2008 and 50/50 in 2012.

Polls plus becomes more or less identical to polls-only by election day. The fact that "polls plus" got it right on election day is attributable only to polling.

[Boston Bread]

I put together a swing map between the 2012 election and the margin of victory in the 538 polls-only model.

Largest R swing: DC
Largest D swing: Utah

[Boston Bread]

Made another swing map based on 538's polls only model. Red = Clinton does better than Obama in 2012. Blue = worse

[Boston Bread]

RE: Sorenroy, I only did margin. If I did vote% then Clinton would underperform Obama in most states.

[Boston Bread]

It might take a while to calculate, but I think two-party vote percentage might be the best thing to look at.

I did exactly as you requested. Here is the two party swing map between 538's polls only model and 2012. Not too much of a difference, although the Great Lakes area looks much better now.