538 Model Megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: 538 Model Megathread  (Read 83497 times)
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« on: July 04, 2016, 10:08:16 AM »
In polls plus, Trump is closer to 30%.  Much of it is based on really old polls, too.  Like, his rationale for saying that SC could be close is two polls from November showing modest Trump leads.
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2016, 05:03:52 PM »
If we voted today, Trump's 90th percentile:



402-136

Crooked Hillary's 90th percentile:



418-120
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2016, 09:54:17 PM »
50.1%-49.9%
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2016, 06:21:56 PM »
Here's a map of where Trump's chances are better and worse than his chance of winning the EC, per polls plus:



Every state where Trump's chance is over 27% (their national chance for him) is in blue.  Their current pure tossups (within 45-55) are Iowa, North Carolina, and ME-02
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Posts: 11,727


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2016, 03:08:58 PM »
In the now-cast, 538 now says that it is exactly 50-50 in Iowa.
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Posts: 11,727


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2016, 07:05:30 PM »
Polls-plus is up to 30%!!  Polls-only and Nowcast are 26 and 27, respectively.  The surge is real, and it wouldn't surprise me if Trump takes the lead soon!!
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Posts: 11,727


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #6 on: September 01, 2016, 09:49:26 AM »
Polls-plus is thinking Romney+Iowa+ME-02 for Trump now (though his pickups, NC, FL, OH, NE-02, NV and NH are all pure tossups in its mind)

Nowcast might be the weirdest for Trump: Romney-North Carolina-NE-02+Iowa+ME-02
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Posts: 11,727


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #7 on: September 02, 2016, 11:25:36 AM »
Clinton's now below 70 in polls-plus.  The surge is real!
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Posts: 11,727


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #8 on: September 06, 2016, 10:35:29 AM »
One pro-Trump poll would probably flip Ohio on polls-plus.  Right now, it's still Romney+Iowa+ME02.  But, Trump is up to a 1/3 chance on that and Nowcast and a 31% chance on Polls-only.  If it keeps going like this, he could take the lead in a couple of weeks.
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #9 on: September 06, 2016, 10:58:31 AM »
So, if the election were held today, Rhode Island would be closer to the national average than New Missouri Iowa!
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #10 on: September 14, 2016, 10:23:38 AM »
Ohio flips to Trump on polls-plus and nowcast.

Polls Plus: Romney+Iowa+Ohio+ME-02
Pols Only: Romney-North Carolina+Iowa+ME-02
Nowcast: Romney-North Carolina+Iowa+Ohio+ME-02
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Posts: 11,727


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #11 on: September 14, 2016, 12:38:53 PM »
Florida and Ohio flip to Trump on polls-plus, and North Carolina flips to Trump on polls only

Plus: Romney+Florida+Ohio+Iowa+ME-02 (260 EV)
Only: Romney+Ohio+Iowa+ME-02 (231 EV)
Now: Romney-NC+Ohio+Iowa+ME-02 (216 EV)
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Posts: 11,727


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #12 on: September 14, 2016, 04:37:05 PM »
538 has Maine more likely to vote Republican than Virginia in all three models and ME-02 almost as likely in the nowcast to go for Trump as Arizona!
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Posts: 11,727


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #13 on: September 15, 2016, 03:22:00 PM »
Trump now up to 43.4 in the nowcast, and it still doesn't include the recent MI poll or the CO/others one.  Could Trump be ahead by the end of the day if the FOX national poll has him ahead??
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Posts: 11,727


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #14 on: September 16, 2016, 04:04:16 PM »
When are they releasing their Senate model?
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #15 on: September 19, 2016, 04:10:14 PM »
Trump back above 40 in all three models.  In 2012, Romney was in low single-digits going into the first debate, so Trump seems to be in much better shape than his forerunner.
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Posts: 11,727


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #16 on: September 20, 2016, 03:22:31 PM »
Massive Trump surge mostly due to Ipsos tracking polls, and that the Florida polls were adjusted to small Clinton leads.

Nowcast: 47.9%
Polls-plus: 44.1%
Polls-only: 43.7%

This is a new all-time high for Trump in polls-plus.

By the way, Trump's nearing 80% in ME-02 nowcast.
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Posts: 11,727


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #17 on: September 20, 2016, 03:34:45 PM »
« Edited: September 20, 2016, 03:38:34 PM by ExtremeRepublican »
Swing states (everything between 10-90% in PP) (Trump odds- PP, PO, NC):

Georgia: 86, 80, 85
Arizona: 80, 76, 83
Iowa: 69, 66, 77
Ohio: 63, 61, 68
North Carolina: 63, 58, 63
Florida: 58, 55, 60
Nevada: 53, 54, 60
New Hampshire: 40, 40, 40
Colorado: 39, 38, 44
Pennsylvania: 31, 32, 31
Wisconsin: 30, 32, 34
Michigan: 30, 33, 35
Maine: 27, 31, 33
Minnesota: 26, 26, 24
Virginia: 25, 27, 25
New Mexico: 21, 21, 23 (Johnson has a 1-2% chance to carry NM)
Rhode Island: 16, 21, 25
Delaware: 15, 19, 19
New Jersey: 12, 15, 15
Oregon: 10, 12, 10

NE-01: 88, 86, 88
NE-02: 71, 69, 72
ME-02: 70, 70, 79
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Posts: 11,727


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #18 on: September 20, 2016, 03:39:31 PM »
Quote from: Mallow on September 20, 2016, 03:38:28 PM
Quote from: Left on September 20, 2016, 03:35:08 PM
Quote from: Mallow on September 20, 2016, 03:34:12 PM
Quote from: KingSweden on September 20, 2016, 03:32:23 PM
Quote from: Mallow on September 20, 2016, 03:30:54 PM
I'm not sure what polls are responsible, but 538's model has Trump still surging.

That's what I'm scratching my head over. I get that he includes all the funky tracking polls, but you'd think more traditional polls would get weighted higher

Even the tracking polls don't show Trump expanding his lead anymore, though. I wish there was a place on the site where you could see a list of the most recent additions to the model forecast.

It's right here: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

Thank you. Wish I had seen this earlier.

It might be new; I just saw it the other day for the first time.
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Posts: 11,727


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #19 on: September 21, 2016, 05:42:27 PM »
Trump drops to 42% in all three models with the addition of the NBC poll (adjusted to Clinton +5).  The FOX state polls are not included yet.
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Posts: 11,727


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #20 on: September 22, 2016, 11:08:40 AM »
Alabama becomes the first state to go to >99.9% Trump in any model
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Posts: 11,727


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2016, 09:48:31 PM »
Nowcast has ME-02 safer for Trump than Montana.  This is getting bizarre, but probably won't matter at the end of the day!
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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*****
Posts: 11,727


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #22 on: September 26, 2016, 10:36:02 AM »
Averaging the three gives Trump a slight lead, 50.3%-49.7%.  I think this is the first time he has led in the average of the three.
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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*****
Posts: 11,727


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #23 on: October 04, 2016, 08:15:04 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 04, 2016, 07:18:27 PM
Clinton is now above 70% in all three models (over 80% in nowcast).  It's the first time she's been above 70% in polls-plus since September 1.

I'm losing hope.  Maybe Pence will stop the bleeding!
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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*****
Posts: 11,727


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57
« Reply #24 on: October 10, 2016, 10:59:12 AM »
Quote from: Assemblyman Gass3268 on October 10, 2016, 10:50:57 AM
Quote from: elcorazon on October 10, 2016, 10:47:54 AM
Alaska is at 30% on Polls Only - higher than GA

Probably because no one has polled GA since Hillary has had her comeback.

I think Georgia is going to be tough for Hillary because it is so inelastic.  But, I'm not nearly as optimistic about somewhere like Arizona, Alaska, or even Montana.
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