538 Model Megathread

[heatcharger]

Here it is:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Beautiful electoral map, projected vote shares, chances of winning states, surprisingly includes Gary Johnson, all with different models, based purely on polls, another factoring in economic and historical data.

Here's Nate Silver's explanation of his methodology:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-has-a-20-percent-chance-of-becoming-president/

I'm gonna have fun looking at this every day for the next 4 months.

[heatcharger]

Why is Gary Johnson getting such large percentages in states where he isn't yet on the ballot, particularly in the now-cast model?

Agreed. I think it's very possible he'll hit double digits in states like UT, AK, MT, ID, VT, and ME, aka strong Perot and Nader states, he won't even hit 5% in any state in the Deep South.

[heatcharger]

> Kansas

In fairness, he gave that Zogby poll a C-, so once there's a real poll that could change a lot. But it really wouldn't surprise me if Kansas is a single digit win for Trump given how awful Brownback is.

[heatcharger]

For the first time in forever, Trump has passed 40% in 538's polls-plus model.

Projected as the favorite in both Ohio and Florida. That doesn't make any sense.

I think this model is too sensitive to trendlines for specific pollsters, namely Quinnipiac.

[heatcharger]

We need new NC polls badly. Trump being favored in the polls-only and polls-plus forecasts makes no sense considering all the recent polls have Hillary ahead.

[heatcharger]

They really just added all those Reuters polls... Montana is a lovely light red though.

[heatcharger]

They're putting some stock in Reuters. That somehow flipped NC back on the polls-plus map.

Reuters/Ipsos used to be a live phone pollster, and they were generally good, but then they switched to being an internet only firm, and now they're all over the place. If Nate and Co. are smart they'll change their weight in the model.

[heatcharger]

Reuters/Ipsos used to be a live phone pollster, and they were generally good, but then they switched to being an internet only firm, and now they're all over the place. If Nate and Co. are smart they'll change their weight in the model.

Are you sure? I thougt they've always been using internet polling only.

This poll from 2012 says "live telephone interviewing". They had Obama +3 which was pretty accurate.

[heatcharger]

The problem is Florida. Why is Trump still favored, and why did his odds go up today? I know, the trend, but Monmouth last polled it a month ago, so at that point, the statute of limitations for a trend should go out the window. It could've been a lot worse if Monmouth conducted the poll last week.

Also, he just gave Nate Cohn an explanation for adjusting Siena poll to Trump +1. He basicaly says that Siena was D leaning this cycle because their NY polls were strongest for Clinton out of 10 different pollsters.

Silly reasoning. Safe state polling is almost always less accurate than swing states. Are Nate & Co. really basing their 2 point D-house effect on some NY Siena polls? Isn't the methodology of the FL Upshot/Siena poll also completely different?

[heatcharger]

I'm throwing away my copy of The Signal and the Noise. Nate clearly can no longer differentiate between the two.

He believes that presidential elections are far more volatile than they actually are.

[heatcharger]

Arizona moves to exactly 50-50 on polls-only

But you can tell it has the slightest of a red tinge possible. UNFAIR!

[heatcharger]

Darn. ME-02 didn't flip either, but it's close.

[heatcharger]

Trump is back in single-digits in the now-cast, and NE-02 has flipped in the polls-only model.

[heatcharger]

She regained Florida in the polls-only model, but I have to say, the huge D-house-effects they've slapped on some of these higher quality polls are absolutely laughable:

[heatcharger]

That HuffPo writer is out of his league on this one, but wow Nate is sweating so badly -- honesty it's disgusting. My real qualm is that he's including so many junk polls that it's skewing the averages, which makes quality pollsters seem like they have a huge D-house effect.

[heatcharger]

It's not his fault there have been so many garbage polls released recently -- but his model is supposed to weigh them accordingly based on their rating. That hasn't happened the way it's supposed to because the sheer volume of junk polls is flooding the model in a way that didn't happen in 2012.

At least in pollster.com you can modify which polls are included.