538 Model Megathread

[LLR]

According to today's now-cast, if Trump picks up EVERY state he has a 25% or greater chance of winning, the map looks like this:

Trump 270
Clinton 168

If Clinton picks up every state she has a 25% or greater chance in, the map looks like this:

* Missouri is at 24.9% for Clinton

Clinton 384
Trump 154

Those two maps actually look really, really realistic, with the exceptions of Nevada in the first and Missouri in the second.

It would also be pretty cool if Clinton won all thirteen original colonies.

I don't think we see South Carolina flip. That seems like a bit of a stretch.

*triggered*

[LLR]

After AZ and GA, the next state to flip is.... SOUTH CAROLINA! Y'all better wake up - I've been saying this for too long!

[LLR]

Nowcast now has Clinton leading in AZ, GA, and SC (!)

Ok, we need an SC poll now. Never thought I would be asking for one in 2016, lol.

You should've listened. You all should've listened!

[LLR]

On one of the models, his (Trump's) top state is NE-3.

[LLR]

something south carolina

[LLR]

he's not wrong. Reagan was hapless and completely unqualified for the job.

But the Reagan example proves why we shouldn't elect Trump - Reagan was a terrible President.

Reagan is the best president post-Eisenhower. Enough said.

[LLR]

I put together a swing map between the 2012 election and the margin of victory in the 538 polls-only model.

Largest R swing: DC
Largest D swing: Utah

This looks mostly accurate but
-DC is obviously junk
-No way North Dakota trends D
-Same for West Virginia

[LLR]

Clinton's currently at her best ever in most, if not all, swing states

[LLR]

Can McMuffin/Clinton win Utah... would that close any feasible path for Trump to the presidency?

He's losing by 6-7. I think any feasible path he has is long down the gutter

[LLR]

Why is South Dakota less safe than the other Plains states?

Not sure about the model, but it and North Dakota have always voted less Republican than KS and NE in recent cycles, and recently the ND oil boom made it more conservative

[LLR]

6 of the 13 are in the West.  I guess that's where Johnson (+McMullin) is strongest.

Definitely needed to look at Nate Silver's projections to come up with this. Yep. Thanks for the insightful analysis

[LLR]

News.com.au predicts a Trump win:

http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/why-trump-could-really-win-this/news-story/8e4bd4e6f5a65434724702ed8c8f221f

"one of the most respected pollsters in the United States, Nate Silver"

Haha. Told you top of Google meant something.

Except that he's not a pollster