538 Model Megathread

[Wiz in Wis]

According to today's now-cast, if Trump picks up EVERY state he has a 25% or greater chance of winning, the map looks like this:

Trump 270
Clinton 168

If Clinton picks up every state she has a 25% or greater chance in, the map looks like this:

* Missouri is at 24.9% for Clinton

Clinton 384
Trump 154

Has there been an election where one candidate has carried all 13 original states? 36?

[Wiz in Wis]

1984 also.

Yeah, Roosevelt did it 3 times actually, 36, 40, and 44

[Wiz in Wis]

A bit off topic, but MSNBC just plotted out Hillary's ceiling at this time: Here was the map:

Pretty much lines up with all of the states where Hillary has >25% chance of winning today in 538 Nowcast.

[Wiz in Wis]

They put the new numbers in, Clinton dropped about 2% in all three models.

All things considered, the past 15 days have been very stable in their model.

[Wiz in Wis]

Clinton's now below 70 in polls-plus.  The surge is real!

For the first time in a month.

Some of that was the jobs report

[Wiz in Wis]

Nate Silver actually believes that Rhode Island will be a single digit race. Wow. He's really lost it.

He also added the poll showing TX tied. This isn't about "believing" a poll, he just takes every data point into account. Cherry-picking polls would defeat the purpose of his model.

Yes... I'm so tired of people attributing every change in the 538 model to Nate Silver "choosing" to believe X or Y. He's just putting in new data and hitting "run" a few dozen times a day.

[Wiz in Wis]

My point is that he used to at least weigh "state fundamentals" to at least some degree, meaning that if a poll showed Rhode Island or Texas close, the model would not immediately follow suit. The margins would narrow somewhat in each state, but if previous elections, demographics, and other various "indicators" did not suggest the state should be close, it would take several polls, all consistently showing a similarly close race for the model to also consider it a close race, though state fundamentals would still have some impact on the margin.

I'm sick of people acting like the model is its own sentient entity. It's not. He created the model, so it represents what he thinks the polls suggest about the race. If the results of his model were absurd to him, he'd tweak it.

Ok, but he has 3 models, which one are you referring to? The Polls-plus model has been almost painfully stable for weeks!

[Wiz in Wis]

After he put in those Google polls, especially the DC one, I lost all faith in this model.

The real issue is that there are a ton of really questionable polls out there, and he's including every single last one of them in the name of "more data=better"

Garbage in, garbage out.

[Wiz in Wis]

I think his model is too volatile compared to 2012, which was not only accurate, but mirrored President Obama's internal polling that always showed him ahead

I'd point out that the polls-plus and the polls-only models both have Clinton ahead still, and only the latter of the two has ever shown a trump lead... and then only 50.1% to 49.9% after the RNC for one day. So basically, they have both shown Clinton ahead the whole time.

Again, it's also harder this year with many more methodologies. The NYT-Upshot poll also pointed out how varying enthusiasm/filters can affect LV screens. I'm not going to rip on 538 for including as much information as possible, just because I don't like the number I see.

[Wiz in Wis]

NV and FL now blue in all three models.

[Wiz in Wis]

North Carolina is now blue in all three models, and Ohio is blue in Nowcast and Polls-only. WI, MI, PA, VA are all 80% plus in Polls-only. Florida approaching 70% Clinton in the Nowcast. Clinton breaks 300 EVs in all three models as well.

[Wiz in Wis]

As of this morning, Iowa is now blue in the Nowcast, at 48% Clinton in Polls Only.

[Wiz in Wis]

Clinton at her highest point ever in Polls-plus.

[Wiz in Wis]

Ok... I'm annoyed by this. 1 poll from UT comes in, with Trump up 7, and the national probability of his winning goes UP 1.3%. That's a ridiculous amount of over sensitivity.

[Wiz in Wis]

I see the junk polls have erased Clinton's bounce.

Are they junk polls though?

Also, I noticed something. HRC's at 64%, but every state in her Freiwal is over 70% except for New Hampshire. Thats only because the model sees Nevada as a toss-up; so the overall numbers are deflated just because of that.

Exactly.