538 Model Megathread

[RJEvans]

Most likely states to flip (polls only):

NC   59.00%
AZ   53.90%
MO   47.30%
GA   41.90%
SC   38.50%
KS   32.60%
CO   31.50%
MS   31.10%
SD   30.00%
IN   29.60%

Most likely states to flip (polls-plus):

NC   46.00%
OH   40.10%
CO   38.80%
AZ   37.70%
IA   37.10%
FL   36.70%
NH   32.90%
MO   31.80%
VA   27.70%
NV   27.00%

Just eyeballing it, it looks like the most likely Electoral College outcome in the model is Clinton 368-170, with AZ, NC and MO flipping. The model is also bullish on Clinton 400+ with a relatively high probability of 483-55.

[RJEvans]

Junk!

There is no reason to believe that the race is that tight in red states like TN and TX.

The data is right there.

Two polls with Trump at +9 in TN, gives Trump an 8-12 point victory.
Three polls with 3 and 7 point lead for Trump in TX gives him a 6-9 point victory.

This is not Nate's punditry, this is his model spitting out data.

[RJEvans]

That NBC/WSJ poll is going to do some real cool things to the models

It's a small sample size so I'm not sure it will change too much.

[RJEvans]

Model just dropped to 63,6% - lowest in a long time - and Nevada is back in the Trump camp.

Looks like IBD and the LA Times poll knocked it down 3%.