538 Model Megathread

[Gass3268]

Nate Silver may suck when it comes to primaries, but he is so far 100/100 in predicting how each state will go in a general election.

Here is the electoral map based on the currently projected odds:

As of right now Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, and North Carolina are the pure toss up states.

[Gass3268]

Kansas and Mississippi are some of the most competitive states? I like Nate Silver's forecasts, but just like his primary prognostications, I think these will end up totally wrong (Gary Johnson probably won't get anywhere near the 9% this forecast shows).

To be fair this will adjust with new polling (both statewide and nationally). Obviously those two states should move towards Trump.

[Gass3268]

Making any definitive prediction before the conventions and debates is foolish

The awesome thing about doing it now is you can watch the numbers change was we getting closer to election day.

[Gass3268]

So New Jersy is now a potential tipping point state or is that an error?

2-3% chance as a tipping point state.

[Gass3268]

Hillary is essentially in the same place in the polls-plus model right now as she was on June 8th when the model started.

[Gass3268]

I'm surprised Trump could actually win Nevada and lose Colorado at this point when looking at polls.

He could, but based on past elections I would say that Trump needs to be up on average by 5% on election day to have a chance.

[Gass3268]

Hillary is now at 73.3% in the Polls-Plus Model. Ties her peak from July 9th, before the post-Comey Press Conference polls kicked in.

[Gass3268]

One more big poll like we got to day and she'll probably go over 80% in the polls-plus model.

[Gass3268]

A couple polls came out today that, while having Clinton in the lead, were less than glorious for her, yet the model doesn't seem to have budged since yesterday. Anyone know why?

They haven't put in the Pew or Nevada poll yet. It should also be noted that the last Pew poll was in early June, so even though it had Clinton up 12, it won't be as awful as it would be if the poll would have been out in late July.

[Gass3268]

They put the new numbers in, Clinton dropped about 2% in all three models.

[Gass3268]

They put the new numbers in, Clinton dropped about 2% in all three models.

All things considered, the past 15 days have been very stable in their model.

This is good news for Clinton. We are almost to the one month historical precedent of whoever leads a month after the conventions wins the election.

[Gass3268]

I wonder how much of a hit Hillary will take today from the Emerson PA/MI/OH polls.

They're a B rated pollster with a sizeable R bias, so I'm not really sure. Maybe she'll lose .5% or something like that.

Only a .1% drop, but she had a couple decent tracking polls.

[Gass3268]

Nate Cohen's Upshot model on the New York Times has shown Clinton recovering the past couple days. Currently gives her a 75%, up from the low 70's. I find there differences fascinating, especially right now.

[Gass3268]

To me the thing that makes the least amount of sense is there have been 3 Florida polls released since yesterday with Clinton up (+1,+5,+5), yet Trump's odds in Florida keep spiking?

[Gass3268]

In the polls only, Democrats have a better chance of winning the Senate than Clinton winning the Presidency, lol.

[Gass3268]

I imagine those state polls will nudge Clinton a little bit down, but probably not a ton since they're in states where Trump is already leading

Yeah, national polls, especially major ones have a biggest effect in the system. Also it takes a few for them to cause movement. If say the next couple major polls have Clinton +5, she should spike. Problem is we probably won't get any polls again until after the debate.

[Gass3268]

Nevada switched back to Clinton in the polls-only.

[Gass3268]

Nevada switched back to Clinton in the polls-only.

Why?

Clinton's national lead continues to climb. Trump got the closest he ever has to Clinton since the conventions on September 20th, only down 1.1%. Only three days later he's down 2.5%.

[Gass3268]

The 538 senate model has also moved over to GOP for Senate control.  Part of it has to do with the fact that 50-50 will be more likely mean GOP control given Trump's chances has surged.  But most of it is just polls moving in GOP direction in the Senate races.

Back to the Democrats, lol

[Gass3268]

Florida has swung back to Hillary in both the nowcast and polls-only.

[Gass3268]

Even tho she has no chance of pulling out a win for herself, Clinton should consider helping out Kander in Missouri, probably by having some of her more likeable surrogates campaign and/or fundraise there with Kander.

Wouldn't be a bad place to send Bill.

[Gass3268]

Clinton inching closer to 80% in the polls-only model.

[Gass3268]

Since the 1st debate (September 26) there has been a:

- 46.5 point swing towards Clinton in the polls-plus model
- 54 point swing towards Clinton in the polls-only model
- 70.6 point swing towards Clinton in the now-cast

[Gass3268]

Clinton is up 5.4% (+0.3 since yesterday) in the polls-only national polls average, highest she's been since August 29.

Also Johnson has dropped a full percentage point since October 1, 2 full points since September 14. If the current trend continues he should be around 4% by election day.

[Gass3268]

Alaska is at 30% on Polls Only - higher than GA

Probably because no one has polled GA since Hillary has had her comeback.