538 Model Megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: 538 Model Megathread  (Read 83323 times)
Angel of Death
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« on: June 29, 2016, 01:54:50 PM »
Does this mean everyone loves Nate Silver again?
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Angel of Death
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Posts: 2,412
« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2016, 07:44:46 AM »
Here's the old forecast from 2012. In particular, I miss the explicit "tipping point state" probabilities this time.
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Angel of Death
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Posts: 2,412
« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2016, 07:30:26 PM »
Trump doing better in the polls-only forecast than the now-cast would suggest a DNC bounce, as the latter is more aggressive in response to new polls.
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Angel of Death
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Posts: 2,412
« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2016, 08:31:47 AM »
Clinton now also ahead in Arizona according to the polls-only forecast. Still, how ridiculously polarized is this country when only a handful of states can possibly flip given the expected vote margin? For a stunning contrast, compare with the 1988 election.
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Angel of Death
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Posts: 2,412
« Reply #4 on: August 14, 2016, 05:17:23 PM »
Anyone hazard a guess if and when Clinton will finally gain another state in the polls-plus forecast?
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Angel of Death
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,412
« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2016, 03:08:05 PM »
Trump is now at his most favorable yet in the polls-plus forecast.
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Angel of Death
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,412
« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2016, 05:51:21 PM »
Hillary just "lost" Nevada in polls-plus.
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Angel of Death
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,412
« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2016, 02:26:33 PM »
What's with the high interest in the now-cast? It's there as not much more than a curiosity and it oscillates too much.
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Angel of Death
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Posts: 2,412
« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2016, 07:30:40 AM »
Is North Carolina really going to vote to the left of Ohio and Iowa?
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Angel of Death
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Posts: 2,412
« Reply #9 on: October 10, 2016, 01:52:50 PM »
And she is still hardly doing better in the Electoral College than Obama in 2012, much less 2008.
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Angel of Death
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,412
« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2016, 04:47:55 PM »
Is it possible for Utah to turn purple in any of the forecasts in the remaining time or is the inertia that would need to be overcome just too great?
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Angel of Death
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,412
« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2016, 10:56:16 AM »
Weird to see polls-plus and the now-cast agreeing against polls-only on something (Iowa).
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Angel of Death
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,412
« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2016, 10:03:36 AM »
538 addresses the elephant in the casino.
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Angel of Death
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,412
« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2016, 11:23:57 AM »

That could have been a perfect political cartoon to illustrate what the GOP actually did.
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Angel of Death
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,412
« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2016, 05:15:13 PM »
How can you people be angry at an algorithm? Seriously, does Obamacare cover Nate Silver Derangement Syndrome?
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