538 Model Megathread

[dspNY]

538 Nowcast this morning has Arizona at exactly 50-50 and Georgia with a 48.6% chance for HRC

[dspNY]

The polls-only and polls-plus will also move to 90% or more for Clinton if we get a bunch of Florida polls like Suffolk showing Clinton up 6 points

[dspNY]

Starting today, there are no artificial bounce effects in 538's models, so what you see is what you get

[dspNY]

Gary Johnson just hit 10% on the nowcast for the first time

[dspNY]

I wonder how much of a hit Hillary will take today from the Emerson PA/MI/OH polls.

They're a B rated pollster with a sizeable R bias, so I'm not really sure. Maybe she'll lose .5% or something like that.

Only a .1% drop, but she had a couple decent tracking polls.

It got canceled out by the UPI poll which had a one day swing of 3 points in her direction

[dspNY]

After Arizona Clinton +1 poll, it's now showing 20.5%
Seems like their system updates pretty slow.

How could that be...a tossup poll in Arizona should not improve trumps chances of winning. Nate has some serious bugs in his model here

[dspNY]

Back to Arizona's tossup poll improving trump's chances by 2% nationally...it's not like Arizona is historically a Lean D state that Trump is turning red

[dspNY]

Interesting to see how the models react today. We've had a lot of polling, mostly good for Clinton but a couple of good ones for Trump in NH and NV. I think the models move towards Clinton

+5 Washington Post national
+1.4 LA Times national
+7 Ohio
+2 Florida
-2 Arizona
-2 Georgia
-1 Nevada
+1 New Hampshire

[dspNY]

Polls Plus- 68.5% -31.5% (Clinton-Trump)
Polls Only-- 70.0%-30.0% (Clinton-Trump)
Nowcast- 74.3%- 25.7% (Clinton-Trump)

Not much of a change

[dspNY]

To me the thing that makes the least amount of sense is there have been 3 Florida polls released since yesterday with Clinton up (+1,+5,+5), yet Trump's odds in Florida keep spiking?

Polls only should have Clinton ahead in FL and its jacked up if they don't...which would improve her win % substantially

[dspNY]

I think his model is too volatile compared to 2012, which was not only accurate, but mirrored President Obama's internal polling that always showed him ahead

[dspNY]

Ohio turns back blue on the nowcast

[dspNY]

When the CBS/NYT poll is factored into the model, Clinton will go above 80% on the Nowcast and probably over 72% in polls only

[dspNY]

The Nowcast now has Arizona moving back into the battleground with a nearly 40% chance for Clinton to win it. Polls-only has Arizona at a 35% chance for Clinton. Watch this because the early vote starts there in 9-10 days and Clinton is setting up a real swing-state organization to bank early votes...

[dspNY]

All states in the blue firewall are at least 83.6% or higher for Clinton in the Nowcast, 76.9% in polls-only and 73.9% in polls-plus

Arizona is all the way to 43.3% on the Nowcast and 38.4% on polls-only for Clinton

[dspNY]

That PPP Ohio poll moved Clinton to 87.1% in the Nowcast and 78.7% in the polls only. The 87.1% in the Nowcast is the highest number for Clinton since August 19-20, while the 78.7% in the polls-only is the highest number for her since August 28.

Interestingly, Nate's Nowcast accurately predicted that two Arizona polls would be within the margin of error, one in Clinton's direction, before we saw them (the Clinton +2 and the tie)

[dspNY]

Arizona moves to exactly 50-50 on polls-only

[dspNY]

That NBC/WSJ poll is going to do some real cool things to the models

[dspNY]

McMullin added to the Utah model!

McMullin's color in Utah is purple

[dspNY]

Decided to make a map of all the states that have never dipped below an 80% chance of the leading candidate winning for more than a week:

Clinton — 176
Trump — 146
tossup* — 216

*Edit: I do not think the grey are tossup, I think they are the not-titanium-[party here] states.

This would probably be an improvement on your map

50% red: Clinton 60% or greater chance to win at all times
30% red: Clinton always in the lead, but under 60% chance to win at one point
Gray: Candidates have exchanged the lead
30% blue: Trump always in the lead, but under 60% chance to win at one point
50% blue: Trump 60% or greater chance at all times

[dspNY]

Clinton's slipped to 86% in the Nowcast, 85% in the polls-only and 81-82% in the polls-plus.

The Senate forecast has shifted to the Democrats (now over 60% in all three models) because Cortez-Masto has taken the lead in Nevada

[dspNY]

HRC approaching 50% of the popular vote in the polls-only model

[dspNY]

With the Bloomberg Clinton +9, the PRRI Clinton +15 and the Arizona Clinton +4 poll, 538 will most likely have Clinton at or slightly above 50% of the popular vote in at least one of their models, possibly two (polls-only and Nowcast)

[dspNY]

Arizona actually has a slightly higher chance of going Democratic than Iowa in the Nowcast

AZ: 59.4%
IA: 57.3%

[dspNY]

I can't wait to see how the model reacts to these Emerson polls... so excited!

With the inclusion of the Utah poll, Evan McMullin's chances of winning UT have gone up to 24.7% in the Nowcast. However he is still only ay 10.9% in the polls-only