538 Model Megathread

[ProudModerate2]

Looking further down:

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Wait...
Whaaaaaa?

I saw that. And they have "Clinton winning a 2012 Romney state" at a lower percentage, even with the model showing her currently winning two of them.

It is strange.
Unsure how they do "the math" for this. You can not click on it for additional detail.

[ProudModerate2]

The swing that took place today in the 538 models, in favor of Hillary, is dramatic.
And they made me happy !
8-)

[ProudModerate2]

Man, the now-cast map is absolutely bluetiful ! And he hasn't even entered in the FL Suffolk poll.

LOL.
I like that .... "bluetiful."
8-)

[ProudModerate2]

Wow.
Look at the charts for all three models.
The trend lines on how things have shifted in the last 6 to 8 days is dramatic !
I mean Hillary's numbers are shooting-up like a rocket, and trump's are falling off the cliff.
Incredible !

[ProudModerate2]

The Now Model has gone coo coo for Clinton Puffs, giving HRC a 91.5% chance to win the election with all swing states and some lean states going D.

Which makes sense; the now-cast currently has it as nearly an 8 pt race (45.1/37.5). I'd expect to win more than 9/10 times, too, if the election day polling showed those kinds of numbers. The other 2 forecasts think it's ~5-6 pts.

The Now-Cast model has creeped-up to 92.5%.
More than likely because of the inclusion of the new GA poll released today.

[ProudModerate2]

Why didn't 538 update the system to include the two new Florida polls that were released earlier today (Tue Sept 20th) ?
I can possibly understand that they are unsure to include the St Leo University poll, but why would they not include the Monmouth poll ?
(PS: Both polls are +5 Clinton.)

[ProudModerate2]

Why didn't 538 update the system to include the two new Florida polls that were released earlier today (Tue Sept 20th) ?
I can possibly understand that they are unsure to include the St Leo University poll, but why would they not include the Monmouth poll ?
(PS: Both polls are +5 Clinton.)

See, you are trying to rig the polls now! Sad!

You lost me.

[ProudModerate2]

Florida has swung back to Hillary in both the nowcast and polls-only.

Yes,
But on the Now-Cast model, in addition to Florida swinging towards Hillary, it also now (12:15 pm Eastern time) shows North Carolina and Nevada in Clinton's column.
8-)

[ProudModerate2]

Ohio turns back blue on the nowcast

Wow. You are right.
And with that, Hillary's chance of winning the entire election goes up to 76%.
Nice.

[ProudModerate2]

If we get just one or two small Clinton leading-in-Ohio polls, then I suspect that 538 will flip Ohio to Hillary-blue in their "Polls-Only forecast" model.
It is so close to the tipping point right now (Oct 1st, 2pm Eastern), that anything positive for her should shift it in her favor.

[ProudModerate2]

If we get just one or two small Clinton leading-in-Ohio polls, then I suspect that 538 will flip Ohio to Hillary-blue in their "Polls-Only forecast" model.
It is so close to the tipping point right now (Oct 1st, 2pm Eastern), that anything positive for her should shift it in her favor.

That Selzer poll seems to be part of the problem.

True. It seems that 538 has classified it with so much weight (probably with its A+ rating).
But look at the date period that this poll covered .... Sept 9-12.
It is now getting old, so a new poll with a decent rating (and the like) will probably overshadow the Selzer numbers and take precedence.

[ProudModerate2]

Does Trump have a path without PA, VA and NC?

rafta,
May I suggest that you visit and look at The New York Times, The Upshot, "Who will be President" analysis and tools.
Here is the link : http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0

Scroll down to the very bottom, and look at the section "Paths to the White House."
Hover your mouse over each of the check-marks, to get a reading on how each scenario might work. (PS: The larger the check-mark, the higher probability that that scenario will happen.)  The entire page has some neat information, so give it a look.

[ProudModerate2]

Even Rasmussen has Trump down by 3

.... And with 538's adjustment, they convert the Rasmussen lead to a Clinton +5 (not just +3).
8-)

[ProudModerate2]

God bless the freiwal! Such a beautiful freiwal, folks, like none you've ever seen. And it's going to grow BIGGER in the next few cycles, BELIEVE me.

So what are you saying ..... that the Firewall just got two feet higher ?

[ProudModerate2]

God bless the freiwal! Such a beautiful freiwal, folks, like none you've ever seen. And it's going to grow BIGGER in the next few cycles, BELIEVE me.

So what are you saying ..... that the Firewall just got two feet higher ?

BUILD THAT WALL... BUILD THAT WALL!

We're gonna build a 322 EV freiwal.  AND WE'RE GONNA MAKE REINCE PRIEBUS PAY FOR IT!!

LMAO !

[ProudModerate2]

538 just adjusted all their models from a very large inclusion of polls from Ipsos, about 1 hour ago (Sat Oct 15th @ 5:31 PM EDT).
I was hoping the Arizona poll from Ipsos would be more Clinton friendly.

[ProudModerate2]

Is it just me, or have you noticed that in just one or two days, trump's chances went from 35%-ish to what is now about 28%-ish.
That is a huge drop in such a small amount of time.