Battleground: Wisconsin or Georgia?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Nate Silver's polls-plus chance of flipping:
Wisconsin: 16.5%
Georgia: 25.7%

Nate Silver's polls-only chance of flipping:
Wisconsin: 13.8%
Georgia: 41.9%

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

In a close and competitive race, WI by a mile.

Right now, GA.

Voted WI, since I believe that the race will tighten significantly.

I think if the race is tight in GA, the race is over.  Of course, if the race is tight in WI, it is also probably over.

My personal completely unscientific wild-guess model has GA a +8 R and WI a +4 D.  In that sense, WI is much more battleground-y.  But with a Clinton lead of five points, GA is going to be a whole lot more competitive than Wisconsin.

[elcorazon]

I think it's more likely that Wisconsin goes for Trump in a close election than that Georgia goes for Hillary in a close election.

[Wiz in Wis]

Wisconsin is a terrible fit for Trump. Whole upper Midwest is a hard region for him, but GOP Radio in MKE is firmly against him. He'll get crushed in Madison/City of Milwaukee, Eau Claire/LaCrosse. Probably lose Fox Valley, and definitely under-perform in WOW counties.

[Badger]

Probably Georgia depite relative inelastic voting habits, though in any normal-ish race it should be WI.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I've seen Making a Murderer.

With all due respect to the fine citizens of Wisconsin, my only knowledge of the state comes from that show.

And also the body snatcher guy who skinned woman to make a macabre skin suit, Ed Gein, the inspiration for Silence of the Lambs.

Definitely Trump territory.

[pbrower2a]

Georgia based upon Nate Silver's projection -- and that Donald Trump is a singularly awful candidate for President.  The fellow makes Barry Goldwater running in 1964 look cautious and tolerant.

Map showing likelihood of wins for Clinton and Trump, Johnson considered

chance of
win          sat

>99%       9
95-98.9    8
90-94.9    7
80-89.9    6
70-79.9    5
60-69.9    4
55-59.9    3
52-54.9    2
<52%       1  (white)

[heatcharger]

Wisconsin has been immune to the supposed appeal Trump has to the Rust Belt, because either:

A) There's not that much manufacturing in the state to begin with
B) The calm dairy farmers of the north don't like Trump's tone
C) The state is too partisan for there to be a significant swing

I'm gonna go with all of the above. Georgia might have lots of inelastic whites, but with record black turnout and gains in suburban Atlanta and with women, there's a very slight chance it could flip.

[Fargobison]

Georgia I guess. Neither is much of a battleground, honestly I am not sure why WI is even considered to be a battleground anymore.

[IceSpear]

Neither

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Georgia, as it is a Tossup/Tilt R, while Wisconsin is Likely D.

[Gass3268]

Georgia, easily

Wisconsin won't be that close

[Xing]

Wisconsin will be closer to the PV, but the way things stand right now, Georgia will be a bit closer.

[TJ in Oregon]

This year the answer is Georgia. Half the Wisconsin GOP isn't going to vote for President in 2016.

Under normal circumstances it would be Wisconsin.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Georgia

[Mallow]

Wisconsin will be closer to the PV, but the way things stand right now, Georgia will be a bit closer.

That's what I have as well. In a Clinton+7 election, I have GA at R+7.8, and WI at D+9.6

[pbrower2a]

This year the answer is Georgia. Half the Wisconsin GOP isn't going to vote for President in 2016.

Under normal circumstances it would be Wisconsin.

It's hard to say what is a normal election. This one is strange in the extreme. We have a politician making insults in the manner of Don Rickles at all sorts of people (with Don Rickles, the insult is personal and it is directed at someone full of himself) and a female nominee for President in a three-way race in which the Third Party nominee team is two people fully qualified to be President.

2016 is clearly not 'normal circumstances'.   

[Seriously?]

Neither

[Young Conservative]

Neither

[ElectionsGuy]

Clinton will come closer in Georgia but the likelihood of her winning is around equal of Trump winning Wisconsin.

[President Johnson]

Tilt Wisconsin. But actually neither. Georgia will be TRUMP territory and Wisconsin is going to end up in Hilldog's column.

[eric82oslo]

The right answer is of course Arizona. Neither Georgia nor Wisconsin will of course be particularily close this year. Just like Georgia will be one of Trump's very best states, in the same way Wisconsin will be one of his worst. Arizona however I think might flip towards Clinton.