Clinton going on the ground and on the air in Nebraska's 2nd district

[HillOfANight]

http://m.omaha.com/news/metro/with-ads-clinton-eyes-picking-up-nd-district-commercials-to/article_2b56b4b2-a4a0-5a53-a769-edcf7a07b9b7.html?mode=jqm

The Democratic presidential candidate’s campaign expanded its media focus today to include a TV campaign in the Omaha- based 2nd District. In addition, the campaign gave notice that it plans to reopen campaign offices in Omaha.

The last time a D has won here was Obama in 2008. The last time a Republican has won Maine's 2nd district was Bush in 1988.

By comparison, Obama set up shop here in September, so Hillary's 2 months early
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/obama-camp-targets-omaha/

[Gass3268]

Their polling must be the same or better than what we are seeing to invest in Omaha. Then again Omaha's media market also bleeds into Western Iowa.

[dspNY]

Nice! Arizona and Georgia next!

[RJEvans]

Nice! Arizona and Georgia next!

I hope so, I really hope so. And if 538 is any indication, MO, SC and MS are real possibilities. We just need more public polling from these places. I imagine PPP well test the waters there.

[heatcharger]

I hope so, I really hope so. And if 538 is any indication, MO, SC and MS are real possibilities. We just need more public polling from these places. I imagine PPP well test the waters there.

MO maybe, SC highly unlikely, and MS no way in hell. You can't win a state where you have a county (Hinds County, MS) that went 71-28 Obama, and then a county literally right next to it (Rankin County, MS) that went 76-23 Romney. There is just way too much polarization among whites and blacks in these deep south states.

[Vosem]

I hope so, I really hope so. And if 538 is any indication, MO, SC and MS are real possibilities. We just need more public polling from these places. I imagine PPP well test the waters there.

MO maybe, SC highly unlikely, and MS no way in hell. You can't win a state where you have a county (Hinds County, MS) that went 71-28 Obama, and then a county literally right next to it (Rankin County, MS) that went 76-23 Romney. There is just way too much polarization among whites and blacks in these deep south states.

You do it by convincing the whites not to turn out. If the county voting for you 71-28 casts way more votes than the one that goes 76-23, you win. I doubt it'll work (and if I were Hillary I would focus on states with competitive Senate races and just try to run up the score there), but if Hillary wants a large EC victory to demonstrate that she has a mandate it might be worth a shot.

[heatcharger]

I hope so, I really hope so. And if 538 is any indication, MO, SC and MS are real possibilities. We just need more public polling from these places. I imagine PPP well test the waters there.

MO maybe, SC highly unlikely, and MS no way in hell. You can't win a state where you have a county (Hinds County, MS) that went 71-28 Obama, and then a county literally right next to it (Rankin County, MS) that went 76-23 Romney. There is just way too much polarization among whites and blacks in these deep south states.

You do it by convincing the whites not to turn out. If the county voting for you 71-28 casts way more votes than the one that goes 76-23, you win. I doubt it'll work (and if I were Hillary I would focus on states with competitive Senate races and just try to run up the score there), but if Hillary wants a large EC victory to demonstrate that she has a mandate it might be worth a shot.

Whites, especially older whites, never stay home. I don't think it's because the Republican GOTV is anything special, these people just always vote. Good for them, and as long as blacks are a minority in these states, it's gonna be a hard for Democrats to win them anytime soon.

[Holmes]

I hope so, I really hope so. And if 538 is any indication, MO, SC and MS are real possibilities. We just need more public polling from these places. I imagine PPP well test the waters there.

MO maybe, SC highly unlikely, and MS no way in hell. You can't win a state where you have a county (Hinds County, MS) that went 71-28 Obama, and then a county literally right next to it (Rankin County, MS) that went 76-23 Romney. There is just way too much polarization among whites and blacks in these deep south states.

You do it by convincing the whites not to turn out. If the county voting for you 71-28 casts way more votes than the one that goes 76-23, you win. I doubt it'll work (and if I were Hillary I would focus on states with competitive Senate races and just try to run up the score there), but if Hillary wants a large EC victory to demonstrate that she has a mandate it might be worth a shot.

Whites, especially older whites, never stay home. I don't think it's because the Republican GOTV is anything special, these people just always vote. Good for them, and as long as blacks are a minority in these states, it's gonna be a hard for Democrats to win them anytime soon.

African-American turnout was higher than white turnout was in 2012. I think older African-Americans, especially in the South, are one of the most reliable voting blocs to turn out.

[HillOfANight]

I hope so, I really hope so. And if 538 is any indication, MO, SC and MS are real possibilities. We just need more public polling from these places. I imagine PPP well test the waters there.

MO maybe, SC highly unlikely, and MS no way in hell. You can't win a state where you have a county (Hinds County, MS) that went 71-28 Obama, and then a county literally right next to it (Rankin County, MS) that went 76-23 Romney. There is just way too much polarization among whites and blacks in these deep south states.

You do it by convincing the whites not to turn out. If the county voting for you 71-28 casts way more votes than the one that goes 76-23, you win. I doubt it'll work (and if I were Hillary I would focus on states with competitive Senate races and just try to run up the score there), but if Hillary wants a large EC victory to demonstrate that she has a mandate it might be worth a shot.

Whites, especially older whites, never stay home. I don't think it's because the Republican GOTV is anything special, these people just always vote. Good for them, and as long as blacks are a minority in these states, it's gonna be a hard for Democrats to win them anytime soon.

African-American turnout was higher than white turnout was in 2012. I think older African-Americans, especially in the South, are one of the most reliable voting blocs to turn out.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html?_r=0

I recently read an article about exit polls being off and overstating minority turnout.

Official data from states is better. I believe due to the Voting Rights Act, states like GA have race on the voter registration, and report on it.

http://sos.ga.gov/elections/TurnoutByDemographics/2008_1104/documentdirect%20ssvrz376_nov.pdf
2008, 80% black females, and 70% black males voted, and 78% white females and 76% white males voted in Georgia.

http://sos.ga.gov/elections/TurnoutByDemographics/2012_1106/376_cfv_by_county_nov_2012.pdf
2012, 77% black females, and 66% black males voted, and 76% white females and 75% white males voted.

Dropoff bigger among blacks, though minor overall.

[Ljube]

I wonder what kind of EC math would make that one EV count.

[HillOfANight]

I wonder what kind of EC math would make that one EV count.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/azPxN

[IceSpear]

She needs to air ads in West Virginia as well! Go for the 50-state landslide, Hilldawg!

DISGUSTING!

They don't deserve the ad revenue or to have her presence on their TV screens.

[DINGO Joe]

She needs to air ads in West Virginia as well! Go for the 50-state landslide, Hilldawg!

DISGUSTING!

They don't deserve the ad revenue or to have her presence on their TV screens.

When you factor in some TV markets adjacent to WV that Hillary will be on the air, probably more than half the state will get the pleasure of seeing Hillary on their TV.

[BuckeyeNut]

Wheeling, WV media market hits eastern OH, and I imagine parts of PA as well.