Who will Johnson voters come home to?

[Lyin' Steve]

The prevailing theory seems to be that the Johnson voter is a #NeverTrump voter who still wants a republican.  If the race is tied going down the stretch, will Johnson voters say "well, at least Trump is a republican..." and go to him?  Or will they say "oh Jesus I have to stop Trump" and go to her?

I'd make the same poll about Jill but I think anyone who's voting for the green party is a lost soul.

[SingingAnalyst]

Who will Johnson voters come home to? They won't.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Clinton. My guess is these people are Bernie Sanders dunceholes who still wanna stick it to Hillary.

[sparkey]

Most polls have seemed to indicate that he pulls either evenly or a little more from Clinton. LP candidates in general tend to pull pretty evenly, despite the stereotype that we draw mainly from Republicans.

I know that doesn't quite answer your question, though, since you're not interested in the second preference of all Johnson voters, but rather in the people who say Johnson when polled, but waffle and vote major party on election day. I don't see a reason to think that this second group will be much different than the larger group, does anyone?

[Vosem]

Neither. Who will they go for in 2020 is a better question but it's difficult to speculate until we know just who the nominees are.

[Heisenberg]

First and foremost, about 1 or 2% are actual big-L Libertarian voters who are already "at home". The remaining 5-9% are both Democratic and Republican voters, it appears.

[john cage bubblegum]

In polls that release both three-way and head-to-head matchups, Clinton's margin is often worse in the three-way numbers.  So I imagine a decent number of Johnson voters are young Bernie supporters.  To the extent that Johnson voters "come home" to a major party candidate, I'd guess they'd go somewhere between 50/50 and 60/40 Clinton, depending on how strongly Sanders supports Clinton.

Obviously a decent chunk of current Johnson voters won't voter for either Clinton or Trump.

[amdcpus]

Johnson.

[Ljube]

Trump, of course. True Johnson voters would never vote for Hillary.

[Landslide Lyndon]

A recent poll mentioned by Patrick Ruffini showed that many young voters (possibly Sanders fans) mistakenly understand "libertarian" as a variation of "liberal" and that's the reason why they say that they "support" Johnson.

[Ljube]

A recent poll mentioned by Patrick Ruffini showed that many young voters (possibly Sanders fans) mistakenly understand "libertarian" as a variation of "liberal" and that's the reason why they say that they "support" Johnson.

So, you think that the inflated Johnson's numbers come from Sanders supporters? Not from the Never Trump Republicans?

If so, how likely are they to actually switch to Hillary as compared to just staying home?

[Crumpets]

Paul voters seem to have come home to Trump. Why shouldn't Johnson voters?

[ProudModerate2]

Both.
Possibly slightly more to Clinton, as some/most polls reveal this.

[skoods]

Really guess that depends on what the landscape of the campaign is. If Trump is continuing to be Trump, then I could see more coalescing around Clinton. If Trump turns this thing around, then they could move towards him.

[ElectionsGuy]

Johnson.

[angus]

What a choice for libertarians!  Fascist foreign policy or fascist domestic policy, pick one.

My guess is that they'll pick neither.  Stick with Johnson if that's who you like. 

[Ljube]

What a choice for libertarians!  Fascist foreign policy or fascist domestic policy, pick one.

My guess is that they'll pick neither.  Stick with Johnson if that's who you like. 

I am a libertarian and I choose Trump. Never Hillary.

[angus]

I was thinking also of issue-specific libertarian-leaning voters.  I assume that if their priority is avoiding costly foreign military invention, then they might prefer Trump.  On the other hand, if they're motivated by free trade and against protectionism, then Clinton is to the right of Trump and might be a better fit.

Then again, there are other reasons not to support either of them which transcend either domestic economic or foreign/military concerns.  I understand that very well.