Is this a logical prediction map?
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  Is this a logical prediction map?
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Author Topic: Is this a logical prediction map?  (Read 315 times)
Former Senator Haslam2020
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« on: June 30, 2016, 01:37:24 PM »

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Xing
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« Reply #1 on: June 30, 2016, 01:41:38 PM »

Logical in what way? I could certainly see the map looking like that if it ends up being a close race, but I wouldn't say Trump is favored in Florida right now.
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #2 on: June 30, 2016, 01:42:53 PM »

In a scenario where Trump suddenly righted the ship/a 50-50 race, approximately yes.  Not as the race currently stands.

Though arizona would probably be more strongly blue and maine and nebraska would be solidly red and blue, respectively.  I also happen to think Nevada is about as likely for Trump as Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #3 on: June 30, 2016, 01:51:23 PM »

As things currently poll, if Pennsylvania is a tossup, Colorado and Iowa are lean R, and Arizona and NE-2 are safe R.  Nevada would probably not be safe.

Then what you have is a 6-point blueshift from today.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #4 on: June 30, 2016, 01:55:39 PM »

In some ways.

Florida is a pure toss-up and Virginia is leaning D.
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Ljube
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« Reply #5 on: June 30, 2016, 02:02:02 PM »

In some ways.

Florida is a pure toss-up and Virginia is leaning D.
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #6 on: June 30, 2016, 02:20:57 PM »

In a scenario where Drumpf suddenly righted the ship/a 50-50 race, approximately yes.  Not as the race currently stands.

Though arizona would probably be more strongly blue and maine and nebraska would be solidly red and blue, respectively.  I also happen to think Nevada is about as likely for Drumpf as Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan.
I agree with this, only if Trump managed to bring this race to a 50 - 50 margin.
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skoods
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« Reply #7 on: June 30, 2016, 02:23:08 PM »

In a scenario where Trump suddenly righted the ship/a 50-50 race, approximately yes.  Not as the race currently stands.

Though arizona would probably be more strongly blue and maine and nebraska would be solidly red and blue, respectively.  I also happen to think Nevada is about as likely for Trump as Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #8 on: June 30, 2016, 02:23:34 PM »
« Edited: June 30, 2016, 02:32:38 PM by ProudModerate2 »

In a scenario where Drumpf suddenly righted the ship/a 50-50 race, approximately yes.  Not as the race currently stands.

Though arizona would probably be more strongly blue and maine and nebraska would be solidly red and blue, respectively.  I also happen to think Nevada is about as likely for Drumpf as Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan.

I agree with this, only if Trump managed to bring this race to a 50 - 50 margin.

Ok, I can possibly buy this argument (exactly as the OP's map above is displayed) except for one point.
A 50-50 margin nationally, would not color Florida to trump. Tossup at most.
(PS: Colorado might also then be tossup.)
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Ljube
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« Reply #9 on: June 30, 2016, 02:48:14 PM »

In a scenario where Drumpf suddenly righted the ship/a 50-50 race, approximately yes.  Not as the race currently stands.

Though arizona would probably be more strongly blue and maine and nebraska would be solidly red and blue, respectively.  I also happen to think Nevada is about as likely for Drumpf as Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan.

I agree with this, only if Trump managed to bring this race to a 50 - 50 margin.

Ok, I can possibly buy this argument (exactly as the OP's map above is displayed) except for one point.
A 50-50 margin nationally, would not color Florida to trump. Tossup at most.
(PS: Colorado might also then be tossup.)

OK, finally we can have a meaningful discussion. There is nothing to discuss if Hillary wins by 5 or so.
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #10 on: June 30, 2016, 03:07:48 PM »

Sort of. Except FL, CO, & NH. They'd all be toss-ups in a close race.
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