2016 election and beyond - A timeline of continued division in America

[Drew]

10:15

Wolf:  We have some MAJOR projections right now.



We are now able to project that Hillary Clinton will win the battleground state of VA.  She was looking good in the early numbers, and now she wins it.  Huge win for the former Secretary of State. 

Trump: 196 EV
Clinton: 140 EV

CNN can now project that Democrat Russ Feingold will defeat Ron Johnson for the Senate seat in WI for a Democratic pickup.  And in FL, we also have Congressman Alan Grayson (D) unseating the former presidential candidate Marco Rubio for another Democratic pickup.  A stunning upset after the GOP thought they would hold this seat when Rubio decided to run again.  This was not the case.  This might not bode well for Donald Trump as FL is a crucial battleground state.  But we'll continue counting the votes.

The Democrats now need a net gain of +1 Senate seats.  PA, NH, and IA are still winnable for the Dems, however they have to make sure they hold NV as well.  Mitch McConnell can't be all that comfortable right now.

[Drew]

10:30 PM

Wolf::  We have some more MAJOR projections to make, right now.



CNN can now project that Hillary Clinton will win the state of Pennsylvania.  Another huge win for Clinton, as she picks up 20 EV.  We also project that Donald Trump will win MT for 3 EV.

POTUS

Trump: 199 EV
Clinton: 160 EV

We have a couple of Senate projections to make.  We project that Chuck Grassley (R) will hold his seat in IA.  We also project that the Senate race in LA will go to a runoff next month, as no candidate will get over 50%.

LA Senate
75% reporting

Foster Campbell 41%
Charles Boustany 36 %
Others 23 %

Projection: Runoff

Though Campbell is leading right now, it appears that he is highly vulnerable as the vast majority of those "other" voters are backing Republicans.  The runoff election will take place on December 3 between Campbell and Boustany.

Senate

Still plenty to watch this evening as we wait to see who will be our next President.  We'll be right back after these mess-- wait!  We've got a major, MAJOR projection to make right now!

[Drew]

10:35 PM

BREAKING:  GOP retains control of House of Representatives


Wolf:  CNN can now project that the Republicans will retain the House of Representatives.  Though we are unsure of the precise number at this time, we have gathered enough data and made enough individual projections to the point where we feel confident that the GOP will hold the chamber.  Let's go over to John King with some Key Race Alerts.  John, I understand that we have some interesting developments?

[Drew]

10:40 PM





John:  That's right Wolf, we do have some interesting developments.  Earlier, we projected that Democrats will win Senate races in OH and FL.  Here are the current numbers for those races

OH Senate (90% in)          FL Senate (80% in)
Strickland 52%                  Grayson 53%
Portman 47%                       Rubio 45%

Now have a look at the Presidential races in these states:

OH POTUS (90% in)          FL POTUS (80% in)
Trump 50%                           Trump 49%
Clinton 48%                         Clinton 48%

Look at this!  Trump has been maintaining a lead for much of the night, narrow as it may be.  There are still some votes available in the Cleveland and Miami areas which could help Clinton catch up, but we'll have to see if that's enough of a margin for her.  I can also find some rural, conservative counties in each state which have not gotten to 100% yet.  Considering the fact that Trump has lost VA and PA, it is critical for him to hold on to at least one of these states.  More on this to come.  Wolf?

Wolf:  Excellent analysis, John.  We've got some MAJOR projections to make right now...

[Heisenberg]

I know it's your timeline, but I really can't imagine many Trump/Grayson voters at all.

[Drew]

10:45 PM



Wolf:  CNN can now project that Hillary Clinton will win the states of WI and CO.  Despite Trump leading in OH and FL as John just stated, Clinton is able to secure these two other battlegrounds.  Let's look at our map now:

POTUS

Trump: 199 EV
Clinton: 179 EV

We also have a significant Senate projection to make.  CNN projects that Democrat Katie McGinty will defeat Republican Senator Pat Toomey.  Another Democratic pickup!  Now, assuming the Democrats do not lose any of their incumbent seats, the Democrats will take over the Senate!  Here's our map now:

Senate

Let's go to John King to examine the remaining Senate races.



John:  Wolf, as you can see by the map, we are still counting in NH and NV.  Let's look at those races:

NH Senate (80% in)          NV Senate (20% in)
Hassan 52%                  Heck 51%
Ayotte 47%                       Cortez-Masto 47%

If these numbers hold, then it's a virtual certainty that the Democrats will take over the Senate.  The potential GOP pickup in NV would be offset by a Dem pickup in NH.  In NH, we still have some votes left in some of the more conservative Boston exurbs, so we'll see if Ayotte can come back.  In NV we have many more votes to come out of Vegas, so this has a long way to go.

Here's a look at the numbers of Senate seats that have been secured by party.  This includes seats that are not up for election tonight, plus the ones that we've projected:

Dems: 46 (including 2 independents)
GOP: 45
Pending: 8
Runoff: 1

Coming up here at the top of the hour, we will have 4 Democratic incumbent seats closing.  If these hold, this will put the Democrats at 50.  They would just need to find one more.  Wolf?

Wolf:  Polls are about to close in 5 more states, and we have some MAJOR projections to make, right now!

[Drew]

11 PM



Wolf:  CNN can now project that Sec. Clinton will win the states of CA, OR, WA, and HI.  Mr. Trump will pick up ID.  No surprises here.

POTUS

Clinton: 257 EV
Trump: 203 EV

We can make some Senate projections as well.  In WA, Democrat Patty Murray wins another term.  Ron Wyden (D) will win reelection easily in OR.  In ID, Mike Crapo (R) will be reelected.  And in HI, Brian Schatz (D) will win another 6 years in the Senate.  These were all expected results, all holds.  We still have not made a projection in CA, but we can tell you that it will be a Democratic hold due to two Democrats contesting that race.  We'll see how that turns out. 

Senate

And now for some gubernatorial projections.  WA Gov. Jay Inslee (D) will win reelection, and OR Gov. Kate Brown (D) will win the special election in that state.  She will serve for at least another 2 years.

Gubernatorial

Let's go over to John King over at the Magic--wait, stand by, we have a MAJOR PROJECTION to make!

[Drew]

11:05 PM

BREAKING:  Democrats will win control of Senate


Wolf: CNN can now project that the Democrats will win control of the United States Senate.  That's because we project that Democrat Maggie Hassan will unseat the Republican Kelly Ayotte for another Democratic pickup.

Here are the current Senate numbers:

Dems: 51 (including 2 independents+CA which will go Dem)
GOP: 46
Pending: 2 (NV and AK)
Runoff: 1 (LA)

We have another MAJOR projection right now...

[Drew]

11:10 PM



Wolf:  A major projection in the Presidential Race.  CNN can now project that Donald Trump will win the state of OH.  As expected, it was a hotly contested battleground state.

Clinton: 257 EV
Trump: 221 EV

That is a crucial win for Donald Trump, as Clinton is potentially one state away from winning this election.  Stand by, we have another MAJOR projection right now...

[Drew]

11:15 PM



Wolf:  CNN can now project that Hillary Clinton will win the state of NV.  She now gets a bit closer to victory with 6 more EV's.

POTUS

Clinton: 263 EV
Trump: 221 EV

Meanwhile, we can also project that Chris Koster (D) will become the next Governor of MO.  He will succeed fellow Democrat Jay Nixon.

Gubernatorial

Let's go to John King for a Key Race Alert.

[Drew]

11:30 PM



John:  Let's have a look at the Electoral College math at this point.

Clinton: 263 EV
Trump: 221 EV

You need 270 EV to win the presidency.  If Sec. Clinton can win either FL or MI, she wins, regardless of what happens in IA and AK.  Mr. Trump must win all 4 remaining states to win outright.  One interesting scenario: if Clinton wins IA and Trump wins FL, MI and AK, we will have a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College.  This would set up a tiebreaker where the House and Senate would elect the President and Vice President, respectively.  We now know that the GOP will control the House, and that the Democrats will control the Senate.  In the event of a tie, we may be talking about a Trump/Franken administration.  Very interesting scenario indeed.  Let's look at our current numbers.

FL POTUS (95% in)                     MI POTUS (60% in)                                   IA POTUS (40% in)
Trump: 50%                                     Clinton 49.6%                                          Clinton 52%
Clinton: 48%                                   Trump 48.8%                                             Trump 47%


Trump has continued to maintain his lead in FL, now with 95% of the vote in.  We'll have to see if there are enough votes left in Miami-Dade County to help Clinton, but at the moment it's looking like Trump will win the Sunshine State.  MI is extremely close right now, less than a 1% margin.  This has been an Atlas Red state for a while now, but Trump thought he could contest this state.  So far he is putting up a good fight, and I'm sure the Clinton team isn't satisfied by a 0.8% lead right now.  There are still plenty of votes out in the Detroit area but we also haven't heard from many of the rural counties yet.  In IA Clinton has been building an early lead, but we'll have to see what happens at the conservative western parts of the state start to fill in.  AK hasn't closed its polls yet, but it is expected that Trump will win, especially considering that it is Sarah Palin's home state.  If the current margins hold, than Clinton would win the presidency.  But it's not over.  Wolf?

Wolf: Stand by, we have some projections to make, right now.

[Drew]

11:45 PM



Wolf: We have a couple of downballot projections to make.  CNN can project that Kamala Harris will defeat fellow Democrat Loretta Sanchez to become CA's newest Senator, succeeding Barbara Boxer for another Democratic hold.

Senate

And in our final gubernatorial projection of the night, we project that Democrat Steve Bullock will win another term as Governor of Montana.  Here's the final gubernatorial map, showing a GOP net gain of +2 (VT and NH).

Gubernatorial

GOP: 33
Dems: 16
Ind: 1

[Drew]

November 9, 2016
12 AM ET

Wolf: It is now midnight on the East Coast and we have a MAJOR projection to make right now...



CNN can now project that Donald Trump will win the state of FL and its 29 EV.  As Donald Trump would say, this is a YUGE win for the GOP nominee and he pulls a bit closer in this race for the Presidency.

Clinton: 263 EV
Trump: 250 EV

Let's go again to John King.

[Drew]

12:30 AM



John:  Let's take another look at those two races in IA and MI:

MI POTUS (80% in)                                  IA POTUS (70% in)
Trump 49.3%                                           Clinton 51%
Clinton 48.9%                                          Trump 48%

These have both tightened up, particularly MI, where Trump has taken a very narrow lead.  Still some votes out in Detroit, but I can also find you a number of conservative counties that haven't reported 100% yet.  In IA it has narrowed as the more conservative parts of the state have started to come in, but we're still counting there as well.  Now over to that Senate race in NV, --wait, it looks like Wolf has a projection.

Wolf:  That's right John, we have another MAJOR projection to make right now.

[Drew]

12:45 AM



Wolf:  CNN can now project that Catherine Cortez-Masto (D) will become NV's newest Senator.  She defeats Republican Joe Heck and succeeds Harry Reid.  So now the Democrats have clinched 52 seats for the next Congress.

As we approach 1 AM on the East Coast, we will have the polls closing in AK, and we can make projections there.

[Drew]

1 AM



Wolf:  CNN can now project that Donald Trump will win AK's 3 EV.  No surprise there.  It's been an Atlas Blue state for a long time, and it's the home state of Trump's running mate, Sarah Palin. 

POTUS

Clinton: 263 EV
Trump: 253 EV

We can also project that Republican Lisa Murkowski will hold onto her Senate seat.  Here's the final Senate map and party affiliations:

Senate:

Dems: 52 (including 2 independents)
GOP: 47
Runoff: 1

Hang on, stand by, we have to make another, MAJOR projection right now!...

[Drew]

1:05 AM



Wolf: CNN can now project that Hillary Clinton will win the state of IA and its 6 EV.  This brings her EV total to 269.  She has at least clinched a tie in the EC.  It will all come down to the state of MI to determine if she wins outright, or we have a Congressional tiebreaker.

POTUS

Clinton: 269 EV
Trump: 253 EV

Let's go back to John King with another Key Race Alert.

[Drew]

1:05 AM



John:  Here are the latest numbers for MI:

MI POTUS (95% in)
Trump 49.1%
Clinton 49.1%

This is a stunningly close race, with Trump leading by a mere 213 votes--no wait it just changed slightly, it's now a lead of 57 votes for Trump.  Fifty-seven!  This will be razor-thin, and there's a good chance that it will go to a recount.  It may be days or weeks before we know who the next President will be.  We're still going to count tonight, it could go either way.  There are votes left in Detroit and there are votes left in the UP.  Let's go over to Anderson and the panel for some analysis.  Anderson? 

[Drew]

1:15 AM



Anderson:  What a night this has been!  As we wait for the final count in MI, let's get some perspectives on this election from our panelists.



Borger:  Once again, we are seeing a sharply divided election produced by a sharply divided electorate.  We have seen quite a bit of split-ticket voting in states like OH and FL.  In addition to some other factors, part of it could be the unorthodox nature of the Trump candidacy.  People have crossed the aisle to vote for him, and they've crossed away from him.  He has certain agreements with even progressive Democrats such as on trade, which may have helped these new Democratic Senators to victory.  And now we see him contesting MI, an Atlas red state for years now.

Lord:  We are witnessing the beginning of a new era in American history and American politics.  I am confident that Donald Trump will pull this off and win, even if it takes a recount to do it.  He has won in red states and blue states, states that just elected red Senators and blue Senators.  It's also looked like he's picked up a number of those disgruntled Bernie Sanders supporters.  America is ready for changes across the board in our political system. 

Jones:  Well, first off, I'm proud of Democrats for taking back the Senate.  People are tired of the GOP's Congressional obstructionism and people made a statement in these battleground states tonight by tossing Rubio, Portman, etc.  Regarding this Presidential election, I see Hillary making a final push in MI among these final votes.  Turnout among African American and Latino voters has been stimulated by this election.  This will ultimately make the difference in a state like MI.

[Argument starts between Lord and Jones, but is interrupted by Anderson.]

Anderson:  I'm sorry gentlemen, I'd hate to interrupt this spirited discussion, but we need to go back to Wolf.

[Drew]

1:35 AM

BREAKING:  Hillary Clinton wins Michigan, presidency pending likely recount


Wolf:  Ladies and gentlemen, we have some breaking news to report early on this Wednesday morning.  We can now project that former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton will have enough votes to become the next President of the United States.  She does this by winning the state of MI by a margin of, get this, 107 votes!  We should note that this is well within the margin for recount in the state of MI, and we would expect Donald Trump to exercise his right to a recount.  We expect to hear from the two candidates tonight.  We'll see what their reactions are like.  For now, here is our Presidential map:

Sec. Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Sen. Al Franken (D-MN): 285 EV
Mr. Donald Trump (R-NY)/Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK): 253 EV

I'm getting word that Donald Trump is getting ready to address his supporters at Trump Tower.  I'm not sure it will be a concession speech considering the impending recount, but we will certainly know what's on his mind in a little while when he comes down that escalator and addresses his supporters.  Stay tuned for that, everyone!

 

[Drew]

2:35 AM

Wolf:  Let's go out to New York where Donald Trump will begin speaking.



Donald Trump:  Thank you everyone!  What a night!  Absolutely unbelievable night.  Let me tell you, I just got off the phone with Hillary Clinton, --

Crowd: BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Trump:  I just got off the phone with Hillary.  And I told her that I am NOT conceding this election!

Crowd: YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Trump:  Because we're going to count all the votes in Michigan!  We're going to recount them.  Believe me, we will.  Even though Crooked Hillary is about to give her victory speech here later this morning.  Only Crooked Hillary would do something like that.  To declare victory before we do the recount.  Unbelievable.  And these media networks do a horrible job with their reporting, declaring Crooked Hillary the winner before the recount.  I'm talking to you, Wolf Blitzer.  And you, Megyn Kelly.  I know you're all listening out there.   

Now, I know I will be taking office on January 20, 2017.  And, let me tell you--

Crowd: YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Trump:  Let me tell you, I'm going to make deals with Congress.  As you all know, the Democrats will control the Senate next year, --

Crowd: BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Trump:  Yes, they will control the Senate next year.  But we will make deals.  I love making deals.  They're going to work with us to make America great again.

Crowd: YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Trump:  I mean, look at these other Republicans.  Especially the ones that got voted out tonight.  Do you really think that Little Marco would have worked with us, especially after him and the establishment tried to rig the nomination process against me?  I don't think so.  That Little Marco, he has lower energy than Jeb.  That's why he lost tonight.  These GOP incumbents, low energy.  That's why they don't have the Senate anymore.  Believe me.  But with the changes I'm going to make, we'll get the Senate back in a couple years.

Crowd: YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So we're going to begin recounting the votes.  We're going to win.  We don't win anymore.  But we're going to win now, and in years to come.  We're going to Make America Great Again!  Good night everyone!

[Drew]

Does Trump know that even if he wins Michigan, he gets Al Franken as his VP?  The new congress votes.

He realizes this, but as he said, he's prepared to make deals in the event he gets elected.

[NHI]

Loving this TL!!!

[Drew]

I know it's your timeline, but I really can't imagine many Trump/Grayson voters at all.

I'll admit that it could be a bit of a stretch in real life.  But some factors that sunk Marco could include his implosion in NH during the primaries, his poor attendance record, and the fact that he flip-flopped on running for reelection after he suspended his POTUS campaign.

[Drew]

3:15 AM

Wolf:  Let's go back out to New York and listen to Hillary Clinton.



Hillary Clinton:  Thank you!  Thank you all!  First of all, I want to thank Donald Trump for --

Crowd:  BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Clinton:  No, no, please.  I want to thank Mr. Trump for a spirited campaign, and for a constructive debate about the issues facing our country.  I wish him and Melania, and their children and grandchildren the best.

Having said that, looking at the numbers tonight, it looks like we have won!

Crowd:  YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Clinton:  We have won because of all your hard work, your conversations about the issues, your efforts to turn out the vote.  And now you can say hello to President Clinton 45!

Crowd:  YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Clinton:  There will of course be a procedural recount in the state of MI, but I am confident that our margin of victory will hold.

Crowd:  YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Clinton:  Meanwhile, we have scored another victory tonight, as Democrats have taken back the Senate!

Crowd:  YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Clinton:  I look forward with both Republicans and Democrats in Congress over the next 4 years to continue the great legacy of President Obama.  Fighting for women's rights, for civil rights, for LGBT rights, for immigrants' rights, for disability rights, for voters' rights.  I thank you all for joining with me to pursue these goals and to help make America whole.  Now get some sleep everyone!  It's 3:30 in the morning!  Thank you all, and God bless America!