2016 election and beyond - A timeline of continued division in America
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  2016 election and beyond - A timeline of continued division in America
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Drew
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« on: June 30, 2016, 11:08:00 PM »

This will be my first Atlas timeline.  My short term plan is to focus on the 2016 elections, which I've already pre-written to a great extent, and then eventually, I'll hopefully do the 2018 midterms and the 2020 POTUS election.  Beyond 2020, I haven't decided yet.  The timeline will start in the summer 2016, pretty much based on how things are at the present time.

Chapter I: The (Relative) Calm Before The Storm

July 1, 2016


It was getting to be convention time, as Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were awaiting their respective nominations.  They were both emerging from brutal primary races, and were already engaged in a brutal general election campaign, even before the conventions. 

At this point in the campaign, the two candidates were tasked with uniting their respective parties, as well as figuring out who to nominate as their running mates.  As the temperatures heated up in July, so did the VP speculation ahead of the conventions.
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Drew
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« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2016, 10:08:18 PM »

July 7, 2016:

BREAKING:  Sarah Palin named as Trump’s GOP running mate

 
NEW YORK (AP)—You betcha Donald Trump has a running mate.

Moments ago, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) arrived here at Trump Tower as it was announced that presumptive GOP Presidential nominee Donald Trump had named her his running mate.  Though this pick was a surprise to many, Trump selected Palin in order to help him with female voters and with the conservative wing of the party.  She is also experienced in campaigning for Vice President, as she was also John McCain’s running mate in 2008. 

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-Donald Trump

Palin delivered the following remarks to a large, enthusiastic crowd at Trump Tower after descending down the escalator with Trump:

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The Republican convention will take place from July 18-21 in Cleveland.  The running mate for presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has yet to be announced...
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Drew
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« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2016, 10:12:35 PM »

July 14, 2016:

BREAKING:  Al Franken chosen as Clinton’s vice presidential nominee

 
WASHINGTON (AP)—Less than two weeks before the start of the Democratic National Convention, Hillary Clinton has made her pick for a running mate.

The former Secretary of State and presumptive Democratic presidential nominee has selected Senator Al Franken (D-MN) for her ticket.  The two term Minnesota senator largely flew under the radar while Americans were speculating about who Clinton’s pick would be.  Establishment Democrats were looking for someone like Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA), while progressives were hoping for another Democratic presidential candidate, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT).  But in the end, it was Franken.

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  -Hillary Clinton

Franken spoke to reporters outside the Capitol late this afternoon:

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The Democratic convention will take place from July 25th through the 28th in Philadelphia.  Clinton is widely expected to win the nomination over Sanders.
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Drew
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« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2016, 10:17:51 PM »

July 21, 2016

2016 Republican National Convention
Cleveland, OH


 
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Drew
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« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2016, 10:20:52 PM »

July 28, 2016

2016 Democratic National Convention

Philadelphia, PA


 
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Drew
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« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2016, 10:53:45 PM »

Here are the 2016 Senate and Gubernatorial nominees.  Incumbents in bold, Dems in Atlas Red, GOP in Atlas Blue.

Senate races:

AL:  Ron Crumpton vs. Richard Shelby
AK:  Edgar Blatchford vs. Lisa Murkowski
AZ:  Ann Kirkpatrick vs. Kelli Ward (replacing John McCain, lost in primary)
AR:  Conner Eldridge vs. John Boozman
CA:  Loretta Sanchez vs. Kamala Harris (replacing Barbara Boxer)
CO:  Michael Bennet vs. Darryl Glenn
CT:  Richard Blumenthal vs. Dan Carter
FL:  Alan Grayson vs. Marco Rubio
GA:  Jim Barksdale vs. Johnny Isakson
HI:  Brian Schatz vs. John Carroll
ID:  Jerry Sturgill vs. Mike Crapo
IL:  Tammy Duckworth vs. Mark Kirk
IN:  Baron Hill vs. Todd Young (replacing Dan Coats)
IA:  Patty Judge vs. Chuck Grassley
KS:  Patrick Wiesner vs. Jerry Moran
KY:  Jim Gray vs. Rand Paul
LA:  Foster Campbell vs. Charles Boustany (replacing David Vitter)
MD:  Chris Van Hollen vs. Kathy Szeliga (replacing Barbara Mikulski)
MO:  Jason Kander vs. Roy Blunt
NV:  Catherine Cortez-Masto vs. Joe Heck (replacing Harry Reid)
NH:  Maggie Hassan vs. Kelly Ayotte
NY:  Chuck Schumer vs. Wendy Long
NC:  Deborah Ross vs. Richard Burr
ND:  Eliot Glassheim vs. John Hoeven
OH:  Ted Strickland vs. Rob Portman
OK:  Mike Workman vs. James Lankford
OR:  Ron Wyden vs. Mark Callahan
PA:  Katie McGinty vs. Pat Toomey
SC:  Thomas Dixon vs. Tim Scott
SD:  Jay Williams vs. John Thune
UT:  Misty Snow vs. Mike Lee
VT:  Patrick Leahy vs. Scott Milne
WA:  Patty Murray vs. Chris Vance
WI:  Russ Feingold vs. Ron Johnson

Gubernatorial races:

DE:  John Carney vs. Colin Bonini (replacing Jack Markell, term limited)
IN:  John Gregg vs. Mike Pence
MO:  Chris Koster vs. Peter Kinder (replacing Jay Nixon, term limited)
MT:  Steve Bullock vs. Greg Gianforte
NH: Colin Van Ostern vs. Chris Sununu (replacing Maggie Hassan, running for Senate)
NC:  Roy Cooper vs. Pat McCrory
ND:  Marvin Nelson vs. Doug Burgum (replacing Jack Dalrymple, retiring)
OR (Special):  Kate Brown vs. Bud Pierce
UT:  Mike Weinholtz vs. Gary Herbert
VT:  Matt Dunne vs. Phil Scott (replacing Peter Shumlin, retiring)
WA:  Jay Inslee vs. Bill Bryant
WV:  Jim Justice vs. Bill Cole (replacing Earl Ray Tomblin, term limited)
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Drew
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« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2016, 06:56:03 AM »
« Edited: July 04, 2016, 03:34:39 PM by drewmike87 »

Chapter II: Election Day 2016

November 8, 2016
5 PM EST

CNN Election Night in America


 
Wolf Blitzer: HAPPENING NOW...polls are getting ready to close as Americans continue to cast their votes.  After a long and bitter campaign, Election Day 2016 is finally upon us.  We’re monitoring this race between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump.  It’s expected to be a good battle.  

PLUS...many Senate seats are up for grabs today.  Can the Republicans hang on to their majority, or will the Democrats oust Mitch McConnell from the Majority Leader position?  

AND...we have some gubernatorial races going on today in a dozen states.  A long evening ahead of us indeed.  

I’m Wolf Blitzer, and you’re watching CNN’s Election Night coverage.

[CNN Election music] Do do do do DO DO DOOOOOO, da da dum, DA DA DA DA DUM. da da dum...
  
WB: Good evening everyone, and thank you for joining us.  The first polls will close in a couple of hours at 7 ET, as you can see with this map indicating when the final polls in each state will close.  These are the  earliest times when we could possibly report a projection.  We’ll be here all night long bringing you the results.  Let’s go over to John King for some analysis.  He’s standing over at the CNN Magic WallTM.

Poll closing times (EST) map:



7 PM
8 PM
9 PM (gray)
10 PM
11 PM
1 AM (white)
*=Polls close 1/2 hour later
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Drew
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« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2016, 07:08:00 AM »



John King:  Good evening everyone, I’m John King.  Let’s start by recapping the 2012 election between President Obama and Mitt Romney:

2012 POTUS Election:



Pres. Barack Obama (D-IL)/VP Joe Biden (D-DE): 332 EV
Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI): 206 EV
 
JK: As you can see, Obama seemed to have won fairly handily.  However, it’s important to note that a number of these states were and are considered to be battleground states which can be won by anyone.  Let’s look at the outlook for 2016: 

Map for POTUS chances:
Darker colors indicate greater degree of confidence


 
JK:  Here’s the map based on polls and analysis up to this point, illustrating the chances for the candidates to win.  You see those gray states, which were all won by Obama in 2012.  Those states are in play again.  Trump is thought by many to have a good chance to win states like Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, and Pennsylvania, among others.  He may also make inroads in the northern Rust Belt states like Michigan and Wisconsin.  On the other hand, Clinton may be able to win historically conservative states like North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, and Colorado.  Let’s have a look at our Senate races for tonight.

Senate races up for election:



R incumbent
D incumbent
No election
 
JK: The current balance of power is 54-44-2 in favor of the GOP.  As those two independents tend to caucus with the Democrats, the Democrats effectively need to have a net gain of +5 seats in order to take control of the chamber.  Or, they could have control with +4, plus a Clinton victory, as Al Franken would become President of the Senate and have tiebreaking power in a 50-50 Senate.  You see how there’s a lot of Atlas blue on this map.  Shout out to those awesome folks on the Atlas forums.  Great site.  Anyway, the GOP is trying to defend 24 seats tonight while the Democrats defend 10.  The Dems see several opportunities for pickups, including in IL, WI, OH, PA, NH, and FL.  Meanwhile the GOP is looking to gain NV, as Harry Reid is retiring.  They are also looking to maybe pick up CO, as it’s one of those battleground states.  One thing that we do know is that the CA seat will be won by a Democrat.  As you recall, there were two Democrats that won CA’s blanket primary back in June, so the only question is which one wins?  Let’s take a look at the gubernatorial map:

Gubernatorial races up for election:



R incumbent
D incumbent
No election
 
JK: Here you can see the 12 states with gubernatorial elections today, including a special election in OR.  The hotly contested races include NH, NC and MO.  Democrats are unlikely to make any major gains in the gubernatorial balance of power throughout the country, as they are defending a majority of the seats in play tonight.  They may be able to flip NC.  Dems will have a better chance in 2018 when many more GOP seats will be in play.  Meanwhile, the GOP is looking to flip states like NH, WV, MO, and MT.  Let’s go to our panel for some thoughts on tonight's races...
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Drew
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« Reply #8 on: July 02, 2016, 07:17:02 AM »



Anderson Cooper:  Good evening everyone.  I’m Anderson Cooper.  Let’s get some expert analysis from our panel.


 
Gloria Borger:  This election should be a competitive one.  Though this is somewhat of a unique election, we will be asking the same questions as we would in any election.  Who exactly will turn out?  Which way will independents and moderates vote?  How do the swing states vote?  Will the winner have a coattail effect on these Senate and gubernatorial races?

This is also somewhat of a referendum of President Obama.  Hillary Clinton is running largely on Obama’s platform, while Donald Trump has energized many of those who are dissatisfied with Obama. 

Finally, which of these candidates has been the better uniter?  Has Hillary done enough to consolidate Bernie Sanders’ supporters, or has Trump brought a decent number of them in with his views on trade?  Has Hillary failed to sufficiently energize her base, and has Trump alienated too many people?  Those are the real concerns, respectively.  Should be a good one tonight.

Jeffrey Lord:  I like Donald’s chances tonight.  Make no mistake, Hillary is a third term of Obama.  Eight years is enough for anyone.  The American people know this.  Donald Trump has defied expectations, over and over and over.  They said he would go nowhere after first entering the GOP race.  Then they said he would fade after a few months due to some of his comments.  Then they said the #NeverTrump movement would stop him.  Now they’re saying that he’ll lose to Hillary Clinton.  I believe he’ll win.  Most Americans are dissatisfied.  They’re ready for change. 

As far as the Senate races go, I fully expect the GOP to maintain their majority.  The Dems need 5 seats to take over.  That is simply too steep of a mountain to climb with increased turnout for Trump.   
 
Van Jones:  I’m looking for Hillary to become our 45th President tonight.  Donald Trump is simply toxic, with the way he alienates Hispanics, Muslims, women, you name it.  Discrimination simply doesn’t win.  He does not have the necessary experience to be POTUS.  Hillary has served decades at the federal level in high-ranking roles.  Many moderates and independents will side with the more established Hillary over the inexperienced Trump.  It’s one thing to run for Governor or Congress when you  have no political experience, but POTUS is a different matter.  My money is on Hillary.

I also believe the Democrats can tie or take the Senate.  These Senators were previously elected during the 2010 Tea Party wave.  Now it’s a Presidential year, and the wave has subsided.

[Argument ensues between Lord and Jones]

AC:  Great discussion everyone.  Let’s send it back to Wolf.

WB:  As we approach 7 PM here in Washington, we are moments away from our first poll closings.  We will be able to make our first PROJECTIONS...
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NHI
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« Reply #9 on: July 02, 2016, 12:54:28 PM »

Wow! This is a great timeline. The detail. The descriptions. Very realistic!

Keep it up!!
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Drew
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« Reply #10 on: July 02, 2016, 03:59:22 PM »

Wow! This is a great timeline. The detail. The descriptions. Very realistic!

Keep it up!!

Thanks!  I was a bit worried that people would pan it for having Palin for VP, as IMO it's not too realistic in real life (at least I would hope not).  More to come later today/this weekend.
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Drew
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« Reply #11 on: July 02, 2016, 05:19:10 PM »
« Edited: July 02, 2016, 05:24:23 PM by drewmike87 »

7 PM EST

(CNN Projection music) Da da Da da DA DA DA DUM!


Wolf:  CNN can now project that Donald Trump will win the states of IN, KY, and SC.  Meanwhile, we can project that Hillary Clinton will win Bernie Sanders' home state of VT.  No surprises so far.  We cannot make projections yet in GA and VA.  VA in particular is going to be interesting, as it is one of the biggest battleground states, worth 13 EV.  Here's our map so far:



Trump: 28 EV
Clinton: 3 EV

In the race to 270, Donald Trump has secured 28 EV, while Hillary Clinton 3 EV so far.  Still very, very early.  

Meanwhile, we have some Senate projections to make.  In IN, we project that Todd Young will become the successor of Dan Coats.  The GOP holds the seat.  In KY, former Presidential contender Rand Paul will be safely reelected.  And in SC, it's Tim Scott retaining his seat.  Meanwhile in VT, we project that Patrick Leahy will win another term.  We cannot yet project the race in GA between Isakson and Barksdale.  Here's the map.  No partisan changes so far.
  


We cannot make a projection in either the IN or VT governor's races at this time.
 


(Cue music again)


We've got a Key Race Alert, brought to you by our good friends at Audi.  Let's look in at the VA Presidential race:

VA POTUS

Clinton 51%
Trump 48%

5% in

Look just how close it is!  Still very, very early.  We will be watching this throughout the evening.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #12 on: July 02, 2016, 07:43:50 PM »

Very interesting the early results in Virginia. Unless it's different in this timeline, just to let you know, in Virginia, the first precincts to report are all in the very Republican parts of the state outside the DC suburbs, so the early Virginia results make it look like a big GOP landslide until results from the Democratic DC suburbs start to pour in. Colorado is also like that.
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Drew
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« Reply #13 on: July 02, 2016, 08:16:53 PM »

Very interesting the early results in Virginia. Unless it's different in this timeline, just to let you know, in Virginia, the first precincts to report are all in the very Republican parts of the state outside the DC suburbs, so the early Virginia results make it look like a big GOP landslide until results from the Democratic DC suburbs start to pour in. Colorado is also like that.

Thanks for the comment, I was not aware that there was a certain order in some states.  In this timeline it will be random.  So the early numbers above don't suggest a Hillary blowout, nor do they even suggest a Hillary win.  Stay tuned for further updates!
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Drew
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« Reply #14 on: July 02, 2016, 08:52:07 PM »
« Edited: July 02, 2016, 08:57:30 PM by drewmike87 »

7:30 pm



Wolf: CNN can now project that Donald Trump will win the states of WV and GA.  OH and NC have also closed their polls, but there is no projection yet in these two battleground states.


 
Trump: 49 EV
Clinton: 3 EV

We also have a Senate projection.  We project that Johnny Isakson will win reelection in GA.  Another hold for Republicans.  No projection yet for the Senate contests in OH and NC, and those we will be keeping our eye on.



We are awaiting results of governor's races in NC and WV.  No projections at this time.


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Drew
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« Reply #15 on: July 02, 2016, 09:00:19 PM »
« Edited: July 02, 2016, 09:04:14 PM by drewmike87 »

7:45 PM



Wolf:  We can now project that IN Governor Mike Pence will win reelection over challenger John Gregg.



It is about to be 8 PM on the East Coast.  15 states along with Washington, DC will be closing their polls.  These jurisdictions carry 168 EV.  We will have some major projections RIGHT NOW...
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Drew
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« Reply #16 on: July 04, 2016, 03:08:14 PM »

8 PM



Wolf: CNN can now project that Donald Trump will win the states of AL, MS, OK, and TN.  Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is projected to win MA, CT, NJ, MD, DE, IL, and the District of Columbia.  We currently have no projections for the just-closed states of ME, NH, PA, FL, and MO.



Trump: 82 EV
Clinton: 71 EV

We can also make some Senate projections.  In CT, Sen. Richard Blumenthal will win reelection.  In MD, Chris Van Hollen will succeed fellow Dem Barbara Mikulski.  Richard Shelby will win another term in AL.  In OK, Sen. James Lankford will win a full term.  These are all expected results, and there are no party changes to speak of here.

We have no projections yet for Senate races in NH, PA, FL, MO and IL. 



Lastly, we have a gubernatorial projection to make.  CNN projects that John Carney will become DE's new governor.  This is another Democratic hold.  We have no projection for the MO governor's race at this time.

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Drew
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« Reply #17 on: July 04, 2016, 03:19:25 PM »

8:15 PM



Wolf:  We have a couple projections to make in the gubernatorial races.  In WV, we project that Jim Justice will succeed fellow Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin as the new governor there.  Meanwhile, in VT, we can project that Republican Phil Scott will become the new governor of that state.  This is a GOP pickup!

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Drew
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« Reply #18 on: July 04, 2016, 03:31:19 PM »

8:30 PM



Wolf:  We can now make a couple more projections for the Presidential race.  Donald Trump will win the state of AR, and we can also project that Hillary Clinton will win all 4 of ME's EV. 



Trump: 88 EV
Clinton: 75 EV


We also project that Sen John Boozman of AR will win reelection.

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Drew
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« Reply #19 on: July 06, 2016, 09:14:15 PM »

8:45 PM



Wolf:  We have some major projections to make in the Presidential race.  CNN can now project that Hillary Clinton will win the state of NH.  Meanwhile, we project that Donald Trump will win NC and MO. 

POTUS



Trump: 113 EV
Clinton: 79 EV

We have a couple of major Senate projections.  CNN can project that Richard Burr, Republican from NC, will win reelection.  Also, Republican Roy Blunt of MO will win another 6 years in the Capitol. 

Senate



No surprises with these projections.  We'll see if the governor's races in these states are influenced by the upballot coattails. 

As we approach 9 PM here in Washington, 14 states are about to close their polls.  They collectively carry 156 EV.  Stand by, because we have some MAJOR PROJECTIONS.  Right now...
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Drew
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« Reply #20 on: July 06, 2016, 09:37:31 PM »

9 PM



Wolf:  CNN can project that Donald Trump wins the states of ND, SD, WY, TX, LA, KS, and all 5 EV in NE.  Hillary Clinton will win RI, Al Franken's home state of MN, and also NY, which is the home state of both Clinton and Trump.  No call yet on MI, WI, CO, NM, and AZ.  Stay tuned for those.

POTUS



Trump: 179 EV
Clinton: 122 EV

Some Senate projections to report as well.  In NY, Chuck Schumer (D) will win yet another term.  With Harry Reid retiring, he could become the Senate Minority, or even Majority Leader.  We'll see what the rest of the night has in store.  We have three GOP holds to report; John Hoeven in ND, John Thune in SD, and Jerry Moran in KS will all be safely reelected.  No projections yet in CO, WI, AZ, or LA at this time.

Senate



We also have a gubernatorial projection to make.  CNN projects that Doug Burgum will become the new Governor of ND.  He replaces the outgoing Jack Dalrymple.  This is a GOP hold.  The map so far:

Gubernatorial



So far, no surprises really in the Senate or Presidential races.  But buckle up, we've got a long night ahead of us.  I'm just getting word that we have some MAJOR PROJECTIONS to make right now!...

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Drew
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« Reply #21 on: July 06, 2016, 09:56:08 PM »

9:15 PM



Wolf:  CNN can now project that Tammy Duckworth (D) will defeat incumbent Republican Mark Kirk for IL's Senate seat.  We have our first Senate pickup of the night, and it's the Dems gaining a seat.

Senate



We also have a gubernatorial projection.  We project that NC's Pat McCrory will win another term, defeating AG Roy Cooper.  This was a controversial and hotly contested race, but now, we have NC voting Atlas Blue in all three of its races tonight.

Gubernatorial



The Democrats will now need a net gain of +4 to take a 51-seat majority in the Senate.

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Drew
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« Reply #22 on: July 06, 2016, 10:07:02 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2016, 10:22:13 PM by drewmike87 »

9:30 PM



Wolf:  CNN can now make a couple of Presidential projections.  We project that Sec. Clinton will win NM, and that Mr. Trump will win the state of AZ. 

POTUS



Trump: 190 EV
Clinton: 127 EV

We also have a MAJOR projection to make in NH.  We project that Republican Chris Sununu will score a GOP pickup and succeed Democrat Maggie Hassan for the Governor's office there.  Hassan, meanwhile is locked in a tight Senate race with Kelly Ayotte.

Gubernatorial:



Stay tuned now, as we have a MAJOR PROJECTION...
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Drew
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« Reply #23 on: July 06, 2016, 10:20:24 PM »

9:45 PM



Wolf:  We can now project that Ted Strickland will defeat Sen. Rob Portman for OH's Senate seat.  This is a big, big upset and will result in another Democratic pickup.  The Dems now need a net +3 to take control of the Senate chamber.

Elsewhere, we project that Michael Bennet will win reelection in CO.  This is a Democratic hold in a swing state.

Also, we project that Republican Kelli Ward will become AZ's new senator.  What a story this was, as she pulled a primary upset that defeated John McCain, and now she wins the election.



As we approach 10 PM ET, polls will close in 4 states.  There are 21 EV at stake.
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Drew
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« Reply #24 on: July 07, 2016, 07:13:05 PM »

10 PM



Wolf:  With the 10:00 ET polls closing, we are able to make some projections out of UT.  Donald Trump will win the state's 6 EV.  Republican Mike Lee will win reelection to the Senate.  And GOP Gov. Gary Herbert will win another 4 years as the chief executive of the state.

Still awaiting results for POTUS in IA, MT, and NV.  Likewise, no Senate projection yet in IA or NV.  And no call for the gubernatorial race in MT.

POTUS



Senate



Governor

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