When will Trump start leading in the polls?
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  When will Trump start leading in the polls?
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Author Topic: When will Trump start leading in the polls?  (Read 1676 times)
Spark
Spark498
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« on: July 01, 2016, 12:52:59 AM »

He's behind in most polls that have come out recently
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Shameless Lefty Hack
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« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2016, 12:56:54 AM »

Most #analysis is going to be useless before the 1st debate, IMHO.

It's possible he'll never lead, it's possible he'll lead next week.

Give him a chance to right his campaign before sticking a fork in him, would be my general advice.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2016, 01:10:56 AM »

He'll lead after the RNC, most likely. After that, who knows. Maybe after a strong debate performance (or relatively strong, since expectations for him will be ridiculously low.) Or perhaps a bad one for Hillary.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2016, 02:17:31 AM »

He'll lead in the week between the RNC and DNC. Unless he has a stellar debate performance or Hillary totally crashes, I don't see him leading after that.
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Meclazine for Israel
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« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2016, 02:47:40 AM »

He will hit the lead in the last fortnight before the election, then he will be assasinated by a pro-Islamic Mexican migrant.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
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« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2016, 05:33:13 AM »

He will hit the lead in the last fortnight before the election, then he will be assasinated by a pro-Islamic Mexican migrant.

Who is also a Chinese climate change scientist.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #6 on: July 01, 2016, 05:48:34 AM »

He will hit the lead in the last fortnight before the election, then he will be assasinated by a pro-Islamic Mexican migrant.

Who is also a Chinese climate change scientist.

And a radical feminist.
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skoods
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« Reply #7 on: July 01, 2016, 07:46:11 AM »

Trump will never lead in the "poles."
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SillyAmerican
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« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2016, 08:24:11 AM »

Most #analysis is going to be useless before the 1st debate, IMHO.

It's possible he'll never lead, it's possible he'll lead next week.

Give him a chance to right his campaign before sticking a fork in him, would be my general advice.

Things will remain very volatile until after the conventions (and probably until the first debate in September), but Trump is reported ahead in the latest Rasmussen poll this week.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2016, 08:49:20 AM »

Never. There will be some single polls where he is slightly ahead, but he will never lead in the RCP-average.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #10 on: July 01, 2016, 08:51:10 AM »

Trump will lead in a few polls here or there, especially around the RNC.  His rolling average from the number crunchers like RCP and 538 will never get closer than 2 points.

Clinton's lead will grow to double digits at times, but stabilize to around 6-8 points by October, barring terrible economic events or ugly surprises.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #11 on: July 01, 2016, 09:00:55 AM »

Only if Hillary gets indicted.
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #12 on: July 01, 2016, 09:25:34 AM »

Only THE GAYS know for sure.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #13 on: July 01, 2016, 11:10:24 AM »

Never. There will be some single polls where he is slightly ahead, but he will never lead in the RCP-average.

This could be correct ; spot-on.
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DS0816
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« Reply #14 on: July 01, 2016, 11:22:42 AM »

If he goes to work on more and more speaking against neoliberalism economic policies and globalism—urging to look after the people of the United States before others—and the Democrats, with a general-election nominee Hillary Clinton, miscalculate then we can see a dramatic shift toward Donald Trump.
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pho
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« Reply #15 on: July 01, 2016, 11:23:37 AM »

Probably sometime in summer of 2017 when something bad happens and a pollster asks people how they would vote if they had it to do over. Incumbents never win those things.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #16 on: July 01, 2016, 11:24:27 AM »

Hopefully, never.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #17 on: July 01, 2016, 11:27:51 AM »

When will Trump start leading in the polls? I can predict the exact date: the 12th of never.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #18 on: July 01, 2016, 11:36:11 AM »

Never. There will be some single polls where he is slightly ahead, but he will never lead in the RCP-average.
Except he already lead in the RCP average.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #19 on: July 01, 2016, 11:43:22 AM »

Never. There will be some single polls where he is slightly ahead, but he will never lead in the RCP-average.

Except he already lead in the RCP average.

I think MohamedChalid meant from here forward, until the election.
And remember trump only led the RCP Avg for 3 or 4 days, and it was only by a measly +0.2%.
 
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Seriously?
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« Reply #20 on: July 01, 2016, 12:03:27 PM »

Never. There will be some single polls where he is slightly ahead, but he will never lead in the RCP-average.

Except he already lead in the RCP average.

I think MohamedChalid meant from here forward, until the election.
And remember trump only led the RCP Avg for 3 or 4 days, and it was only by a measly +0.2%.
 
It doesn't matter if your bank account is overdrawn by $1 or $800. It's still overdrawn. A lead is a lead.
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
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« Reply #21 on: July 01, 2016, 12:06:19 PM »

The 40th of Nevermember in the year 5000
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #22 on: July 01, 2016, 12:16:59 PM »

If he has a good VP pick and RNC, then he could pull up to +1 avg range.  His main problem now is consolidating the GOP.
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Ljube
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« Reply #23 on: July 01, 2016, 12:32:18 PM »

He'll lead after the RNC, most likely. After that, who knows. Maybe after a strong debate performance (or relatively strong, since expectations for him will be ridiculously low.) Or perhaps a bad one for Hillary.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #24 on: July 01, 2016, 01:09:30 PM »

Never. There will be some single polls where he is slightly ahead, but he will never lead in the RCP-average.

Except he already lead in the RCP average.

I think MohamedChalid meant from here forward, until the election.
And remember trump only led the RCP Avg for 3 or 4 days, and it was only by a measly +0.2%.

It doesn't matter if your bank account is overdrawn by $1 or $800. It's still overdrawn. A lead is a lead.

OK. But would you rather have a positive balance in your bank account of say, $1 or $800, to help insure that you don't overdraw your account (lose the election) ?
And wouldn't it be better to have an $800 balance consistently and more often, rather than just relying on a "measly" $1 to "hold you above water" ?
;-)
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