Is Bernie staying in, in the hopes Clinton is indicted?
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  Is Bernie staying in, in the hopes Clinton is indicted?
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Author Topic: Is Bernie staying in, in the hopes Clinton is indicted?  (Read 1578 times)
Beet
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« on: July 01, 2016, 09:00:52 AM »
« edited: July 01, 2016, 09:02:46 AM by Beet »

Yes, pretty much. It makes it logistically easier for him to claim the nomination (Let's be real here, no one gives a ___ about the frickin' platform, least of all Bernie. Even jfern admits no one reads it).

If Clinton feels she may be indicted after her interview, then she must announce her VP pick immediately. That way, that person can then be a backup to potentially take over, just as Gerald Ford took over for Richard Nixon. It's logistically easier than bringing in Joe Biden.
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SillyAmerican
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« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2016, 09:08:25 AM »

Yup. Bernie can read the writing on the wall, so why should he drop out now?
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Beet
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« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2016, 09:11:14 AM »

Yup. Bernie can read the writing on the wall, so why should he drop out now?

Pretty much.

Come to think of it, Hillary shouldn't wait until her interview. She should announce her VP pick as soon as possible, then get her allies to say that, that person will take over in the event she loses delegate support for her person, for any reason. This would be the quickest way to shut the door on Bernie, and unite the party.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2016, 09:12:08 AM »

Whether Bernie "stays in" or "concedes" will be irrelevant if Hillary is indicted before a convention roll call.  If this occurs, the convention will move to release all delegates and have an open nomination.

If Hillary is indicted after the convention the situation becomes very murky.  I have a feeling that either:

1. Hillary will be sworn in, immediately resign, and the VP will ascend to the Presidency
2. The electors will be instructed to cast votes for the VP candidate (with state legislatures passing emergency legislation authorizing them to do this where necessary).
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Beet
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« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2016, 09:16:08 AM »

If it's after the convention, the VP pick steps up, that's easy.

If it's before the convention, if Clinton has made a VP pick, it would go to an open convention, but the VP pick would have a stronger claim than Biden or Sanders. Hence, why she must make a VP pick ASAP.
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Panda Express
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« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2016, 09:21:21 AM »

Beet, you know Hillary better than anyone so give it to me straight - what are the odds Hilldawg gets indicted?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6 on: July 01, 2016, 09:22:04 AM »

What the hell?

No. He's just being stubborn and losing more leverage by the day.

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Beet
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« Reply #7 on: July 01, 2016, 09:25:37 AM »

The AG has moved to recuse herself from the case - after meeting with Bill privately, the meeting was "leaked" to the press - a move that was guaranteed to cause a firestorm and give the AG pretext for today's decision.

Which would not be necessary if the FBI was not going to recommend to indict. Today's move only makes sense if an indictment recommendation is coming. Otherwise, Lynch's decision does not logically follow, as there would be no conflict of interest between her political loyalty and her job. Before today,I would have said odds of 1 in 3. But today it's been signaled that an indictment is coming.

Bernie's case is stronger if he hasn't "conceded" because it shows continuity of his argument from the primaries until the post-indictment convention. He has never accepted the verdict of the primaries makes his case going forward, that the delegates should hand it to him, more consistent.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2016, 09:29:17 AM »
« Edited: July 01, 2016, 09:34:03 AM by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »

Rightio.

Your skewed reading comprehension and your panic merchant status have collided.

The official statement came because of the private meeting to show the outcome is free of any personal involvement. Is this so hard to comprehend?
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2016, 09:30:07 AM »

Is Beet freaking out again? That must be a good sign for Hillary then.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #10 on: July 01, 2016, 09:38:54 AM »

Hillary won't get indicted. Get over it.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #11 on: July 01, 2016, 09:47:54 AM »

If it's after the convention, the VP pick steps up, that's easy.

If it's before the convention, if Clinton has made a VP pick, it would go to an open convention, but the VP pick would have a stronger claim than Biden or Sanders. Hence, why she must make a VP pick ASAP.

Bernie Sanders would still have 1,831 released delegates who would be inclined to support him in an open convention.  Why would the "claim" of a candidate who won 22 nominating contests be "weaker" than the VP pick of a candidate undergoing criminal proceedings?
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Beet
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« Reply #12 on: July 01, 2016, 09:51:07 AM »

Guys, believe it or not, I am aware I was too pessimistic over the primaries and have already taken that into account. However, this is not the same thing as a primary election. Unlike an election, which is a transparent event with virtually unlimited data points, including polls that you can use to say, 'Beet's prediction is a longshot/outlier', the law enforcement elite is a secretive cabal of bureaucrats. There are no direct data points here. The people this forum studies - politicians - are the prey of these people. Studying the prey does not tell you anything about the predator.

Think about this from Loretta Lynch's perspective. If there is no indictment recommendation coming, you're as happy as a peach. You're as high as a kite. Why? Because the FBI make a recommendation and Democrats would be happy and Republicans would have to accept it - the FBI would be the point of focus. Bill Clinton comes over and talks to you - you give him a few positive wink wink, nod nods, knowing that everything is rainbows and butterflies, and that's that.

Now suppose the opposite - the FBI recommends indictment. Now you're sweating like Homer Simpson after being accidentally locked in a sauna for 3 hours. Water is pouring down your shirt like Usain Bolt's after a 100m dash. Because all the heat is going to be on you. You will piss off either Republicans or Democrats on an epic level. So you're looking for any excuse - any. To recuse yourself.

Enter Bill Clinton.

The guy (who should really take a vacation to Tahiti for the rest of the campaign) still wracked with guilt over decades of infidelity and damaging Hillary's career up till now, still can't help himself and goes over to talk to you in your private plane. This obviously, highly inappropriate, egregious breach of ethics gives you the perfect excuse to out yourself. So you do.

The public only sees the end outcome of this. But think like a detective. Today's action suggests that Clinton is finished.

Anyway, want to keep this thread about Bernie. After the indictment he will look vindicated for keeping his campaign going, and that's what he's counting on. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if he had a 'mole' somewhere. Before today, his decisions made no sense. Now, his decisions do make sense.
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dspNY
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« Reply #13 on: July 01, 2016, 10:03:06 AM »

Guys, believe it or not, I am aware I was too pessimistic over the primaries and have already taken that into account. However, this is not the same thing as a primary election. Unlike an election, which is a transparent event with virtually unlimited data points, including polls that you can use to say, 'Beet's prediction is a longshot/outlier', the law enforcement elite is a secretive cabal of bureaucrats. There are no direct data points here. The people this forum studies - politicians - are the prey of these people. Studying the prey does not tell you anything about the predator.

Think about this from Loretta Lynch's perspective. If there is no indictment recommendation coming, you're as happy as a peach. You're as high as a kite. Why? Because the FBI make a recommendation and Democrats would be happy and Republicans would have to accept it - the FBI would be the point of focus. Bill Clinton comes over and talks to you - you give him a few positive wink wink, nod nods, knowing that everything is rainbows and butterflies, and that's that.

Now suppose the opposite - the FBI recommends indictment. Now you're sweating like Homer Simpson after being accidentally locked in a sauna for 3 hours. Water is pouring down your shirt like Usain Bolt's after a 100m dash. Because all the heat is going to be on you. You will piss off either Republicans or Democrats on an epic level. So you're looking for any excuse - any. To recuse yourself.

Enter Bill Clinton.

The guy (who should really take a vacation to Tahiti for the rest of the campaign) still wracked with guilt over decades of infidelity and damaging Hillary's career up till now, still can't help himself and goes over to talk to you in your private plane. This obviously, highly inappropriate, egregious breach of ethics gives you the perfect excuse to out yourself. So you do.

The public only sees the end outcome of this. But think like a detective. Today's action suggests that Clinton is finished.

Anyway, want to keep this thread about Bernie. After the indictment he will look vindicated for keeping his campaign going, and that's what he's counting on. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if he had a 'mole' somewhere. Before today, his decisions made no sense. Now, his decisions do make sense.

You leave out a critical point which destroys your entire thesis. Why would President Obama and Vice President Biden endorse a candidate they know will be indicted? The blowback hits them too. The moment they endorsed Clinton pretty much ruled out any possibility of an indictment because they know better than anyone else what is going on with the email investigation.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #14 on: July 01, 2016, 10:16:09 AM »

Guys, believe it or not, I am aware I was too pessimistic over the primaries and have already taken that into account. However, this is not the same thing as a primary election. Unlike an election, which is a transparent event with virtually unlimited data points, including polls that you can use to say, 'Beet's prediction is a longshot/outlier', the law enforcement elite is a secretive cabal of bureaucrats. There are no direct data points here. The people this forum studies - politicians - are the prey of these people. Studying the prey does not tell you anything about the predator.

Think about this from Loretta Lynch's perspective. If there is no indictment recommendation coming, you're as happy as a peach. You're as high as a kite. Why? Because the FBI make a recommendation and Democrats would be happy and Republicans would have to accept it - the FBI would be the point of focus. Bill Clinton comes over and talks to you - you give him a few positive wink wink, nod nods, knowing that everything is rainbows and butterflies, and that's that.

Now suppose the opposite - the FBI recommends indictment. Now you're sweating like Homer Simpson after being accidentally locked in a sauna for 3 hours. Water is pouring down your shirt like Usain Bolt's after a 100m dash. Because all the heat is going to be on you. You will piss off either Republicans or Democrats on an epic level. So you're looking for any excuse - any. To recuse yourself.

Enter Bill Clinton.

The guy (who should really take a vacation to Tahiti for the rest of the campaign) still wracked with guilt over decades of infidelity and damaging Hillary's career up till now, still can't help himself and goes over to talk to you in your private plane. This obviously, highly inappropriate, egregious breach of ethics gives you the perfect excuse to out yourself. So you do.

The public only sees the end outcome of this. But think like a detective. Today's action suggests that Clinton is finished.

Anyway, want to keep this thread about Bernie. After the indictment he will look vindicated for keeping his campaign going, and that's what he's counting on. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if he had a 'mole' somewhere. Before today, his decisions made no sense. Now, his decisions do make sense.

I'm putting you back on ignore. I thought you might have mellowed out but you've clearly latched onto something else now.
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Flake
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« Reply #15 on: July 01, 2016, 10:21:47 AM »

He's staying in until the convention because he's actually trying to get some things done with the DNC and change a few things with the platform at least.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #16 on: July 01, 2016, 10:45:26 AM »

Every single news reports says that the FBI has found zero evidence of Clinton breaking the law.
Until that changes can we please stop wasting bandwidth with these redundant and useless threads?
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #17 on: July 01, 2016, 10:48:29 AM »

He could suspend his campaign and endorse and still be in position to reenter the race and take the nomination if she is indicted. That is not a good excuse.
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #18 on: July 01, 2016, 11:20:40 AM »

Every single news reports says that the FBI has found zero evidence of Clinton breaking the law.
Until that changes can we please stop wasting bandwidth with these redundant and useless threads?

Considering how high-profile this investigation is, I don't think the FBI is letting "anonymous sources" go around to news organizations and describe the current details of an ongoing investigation.

So what you're most likely reading is bullcrap.
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Hermit For Peace
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« Reply #19 on: July 01, 2016, 11:37:06 AM »


Bernie said himself earlier that he did not think much about the email situation and that basically it would come to nothing, but he did warn his supporters to look at it closely.

Nevertheless, Bernie is not staying in in the hopes Clinton is indicted. He is pushing his personal agenda to the max.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #20 on: July 01, 2016, 11:52:04 AM »

I just wish the FBI would decide already.
All sides on the Dem side just want an answer.
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PaperKooper
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« Reply #21 on: July 01, 2016, 12:02:23 PM »

At least in part, yes. 
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #22 on: July 01, 2016, 12:06:29 PM »

It is more likely he is using his leverage to push the platform, reports are TPP is a big sticking point. There is another platform meeting next week.  I think that is the final decision point. If he doesn't get what he wants he will have two choices.
1 accept the concessions they got and endorse, and then get a primetime speaking slot.
2. Refuse to endorse and push for a floor fight over the platform. 

Maybe he will try to do both? Endorse to get his speaking slot but also urge the floor fight? Not sure the Clinton team will tolerate that. 
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Hermit For Peace
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« Reply #23 on: July 01, 2016, 12:32:07 PM »


If Bernie had been a Democrat for as many years as Hillary, and if he had spent the time she has in generating friendships within the party and also outside of the party, he might have more loyalty to the party than he has.

What he's done (and yes I know he voted with the Dems much of the time, but so what?) is maintained his maverick status, not shown any propensity for loyalty, and gone and done his own thing. So now, when it's important for him to endorse Hillary for the sake of unity, he's taking his sweet time. He's playing it his way, like Frank Sinatra.

Bernie has an agenda he's been pushing since day 1. He doesn't care about the Democratic Party. He wants to morph it into something of his creation. Problem is that most people are not on board with his agenda. Yes some enthusiastic young people are, but right now they need to learn that compromise is the name of the game. That's some tough love based in reality.

The millennial generation is bigger than the Boomers now, and they are a major force, but this time around is not their time. They need to wait their turn....just suck it up and come back stronger and wiser next time. Then they can vote in their Bernie clone of choice and it will be a majority vote. And the sooner Bernie puts his feet on the ground and comes to grips with what he needs to do, the better for everyone all around. Waiting for Hillary to be indicted is a non issue.

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« Reply #24 on: July 01, 2016, 12:35:22 PM »

Guys, believe it or not, I am aware I was too pessimistic over the primaries and have already taken that into account. However, this is not the same thing as a primary election. Unlike an election, which is a transparent event with virtually unlimited data points, including polls that you can use to say, 'Beet's prediction is a longshot/outlier', the law enforcement elite is a secretive cabal of bureaucrats. There are no direct data points here. The people this forum studies - politicians - are the prey of these people. Studying the prey does not tell you anything about the predator.

Think about this from Loretta Lynch's perspective. If there is no indictment recommendation coming, you're as happy as a peach. You're as high as a kite. Why? Because the FBI make a recommendation and Democrats would be happy and Republicans would have to accept it - the FBI would be the point of focus. Bill Clinton comes over and talks to you - you give him a few positive wink wink, nod nods, knowing that everything is rainbows and butterflies, and that's that.

Now suppose the opposite - the FBI recommends indictment. Now you're sweating like Homer Simpson after being accidentally locked in a sauna for 3 hours. Water is pouring down your shirt like Usain Bolt's after a 100m dash. Because all the heat is going to be on you. You will piss off either Republicans or Democrats on an epic level. So you're looking for any excuse - any. To recuse yourself.

Enter Bill Clinton.

The guy (who should really take a vacation to Tahiti for the rest of the campaign) still wracked with guilt over decades of infidelity and damaging Hillary's career up till now, still can't help himself and goes over to talk to you in your private plane. This obviously, highly inappropriate, egregious breach of ethics gives you the perfect excuse to out yourself. So you do.

The public only sees the end outcome of this. But think like a detective. Today's action suggests that Clinton is finished.

Anyway, want to keep this thread about Bernie. After the indictment he will look vindicated for keeping his campaign going, and that's what he's counting on. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if he had a 'mole' somewhere. Before today, his decisions made no sense. Now, his decisions do make sense.

No, she made the announcement because she knows Hillary is in the clear and doesn't want anybody to thinks it's rigged. She's going to catch a LOT of heat from Republicans but at least this way she can show that she's just following the FBI Iike she said she would
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