Is Bernie staying in, in the hopes Clinton is indicted?

[Beet]

Yes, pretty much. It makes it logistically easier for him to claim the nomination (Let's be real here, no one gives a ___ about the frickin' platform, least of all Bernie. Even jfern admits no one reads it).

If Clinton feels she may be indicted after her interview, then she must announce her VP pick immediately. That way, that person can then be a backup to potentially take over, just as Gerald Ford took over for Richard Nixon. It's logistically easier than bringing in Joe Biden.

[Beet]

Yup. Bernie can read the writing on the wall, so why should he drop out now?

Pretty much.

Come to think of it, Hillary shouldn't wait until her interview. She should announce her VP pick as soon as possible, then get her allies to say that, that person will take over in the event she loses delegate support for her person, for any reason. This would be the quickest way to shut the door on Bernie, and unite the party.

[Beet]

If it's after the convention, the VP pick steps up, that's easy.

If it's before the convention, if Clinton has made a VP pick, it would go to an open convention, but the VP pick would have a stronger claim than Biden or Sanders. Hence, why she must make a VP pick ASAP.

[Beet]

The AG has moved to recuse herself from the case - after meeting with Bill privately, the meeting was "leaked" to the press - a move that was guaranteed to cause a firestorm and give the AG pretext for today's decision.

Which would not be necessary if the FBI was not going to recommend to indict. Today's move only makes sense if an indictment recommendation is coming. Otherwise, Lynch's decision does not logically follow, as there would be no conflict of interest between her political loyalty and her job. Before today,I would have said odds of 1 in 3. But today it's been signaled that an indictment is coming.

Bernie's case is stronger if he hasn't "conceded" because it shows continuity of his argument from the primaries until the post-indictment convention. He has never accepted the verdict of the primaries makes his case going forward, that the delegates should hand it to him, more consistent.

[Beet]

Guys, believe it or not, I am aware I was too pessimistic over the primaries and have already taken that into account. However, this is not the same thing as a primary election. Unlike an election, which is a transparent event with virtually unlimited data points, including polls that you can use to say, 'Beet's prediction is a longshot/outlier', the law enforcement elite is a secretive cabal of bureaucrats. There are no direct data points here. The people this forum studies - politicians - are the prey of these people. Studying the prey does not tell you anything about the predator.

Think about this from Loretta Lynch's perspective. If there is no indictment recommendation coming, you're as happy as a peach. You're as high as a kite. Why? Because the FBI make a recommendation and Democrats would be happy and Republicans would have to accept it - the FBI would be the point of focus. Bill Clinton comes over and talks to you - you give him a few positive wink wink, nod nods, knowing that everything is rainbows and butterflies, and that's that.

Now suppose the opposite - the FBI recommends indictment. Now you're sweating like Homer Simpson after being accidentally locked in a sauna for 3 hours. Water is pouring down your shirt like Usain Bolt's after a 100m dash. Because all the heat is going to be on you. You will piss off either Republicans or Democrats on an epic level. So you're looking for any excuse - any. To recuse yourself.

Enter Bill Clinton.

The guy (who should really take a vacation to Tahiti for the rest of the campaign) still wracked with guilt over decades of infidelity and damaging Hillary's career up till now, still can't help himself and goes over to talk to you in your private plane. This obviously, highly inappropriate, egregious breach of ethics gives you the perfect excuse to out yourself. So you do.

The public only sees the end outcome of this. But think like a detective. Today's action suggests that Clinton is finished.

Anyway, want to keep this thread about Bernie. After the indictment he will look vindicated for keeping his campaign going, and that's what he's counting on. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if he had a 'mole' somewhere. Before today, his decisions made no sense. Now, his decisions do make sense.