Guys, believe it or not, I am aware I was too pessimistic over the primaries and have already taken that into account. However, this is not the same thing as a primary election. Unlike an election, which is a transparent event with virtually unlimited data points, including polls that you can use to say, 'Beet's prediction is a longshot/outlier', the law enforcement elite is a secretive cabal of bureaucrats. There are no direct data points here. The people this forum studies - politicians - are the prey of these people. Studying the prey does not tell you anything about the predator.
Think about this from Loretta Lynch's perspective. If there is no indictment recommendation coming, you're as happy as a peach. You're as high as a kite. Why? Because the FBI make a recommendation and Democrats would be happy and Republicans would have to accept it - the FBI would be the point of focus. Bill Clinton comes over and talks to you - you give him a few positive wink wink, nod nods, knowing that everything is rainbows and butterflies, and that's that.
Now suppose the opposite - the FBI recommends indictment. Now you're sweating like Homer Simpson after being accidentally locked in a sauna for 3 hours. Water is pouring down your shirt like Usain Bolt's after a 100m dash. Because all the heat is going to be on you. You will piss off either Republicans or Democrats on an epic level. So you're looking for any excuse - any. To recuse yourself.
Enter Bill Clinton.
The guy (who should really take a vacation to Tahiti for the rest of the campaign) still wracked with guilt over decades of infidelity and damaging Hillary's career up till now, still can't help himself and goes over to talk to you in your private plane. This obviously, highly inappropriate, egregious breach of ethics gives you the perfect excuse to out yourself. So you do.
The public only sees the end outcome of this. But think like a detective. Today's action suggests that Clinton is finished.
Anyway, want to keep this thread about Bernie. After the indictment he will look vindicated for keeping his campaign going, and that's what he's counting on. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if he had a 'mole' somewhere. Before today, his decisions made no sense. Now, his decisions do make sense.
No, she made the announcement because she knows Hillary is in the clear and doesn't want anybody to thinks it's rigged. She's going to catch a LOT of heat from Republicans but at least this way she can show that she's just following the FBI Iike she said she would
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