NBC: Clinton 253 Trump 190 Tossup 95 (NV moving towards Trump)
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  NBC: Clinton 253 Trump 190 Tossup 95 (NV moving towards Trump)
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Author Topic: NBC: Clinton 253 Trump 190 Tossup 95 (NV moving towards Trump)  (Read 1815 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: July 01, 2016, 11:48:29 AM »
« edited: July 01, 2016, 11:51:43 AM by HillOfANight »

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/first-read-clinton-maintains-edge-new-nbc-battleground-map-n602306

Clinton over-performing in diverse states; Trump holding his own in states with large white working-class populations. The exception, however, is Nevada, where both private and public polling shows a close contest that actually leans Trump's way right now. (Trump's strength is Reno, by the way).



Florida from Tossup to Lean Dem

Nevada / Pennsylvania from Lean Dem to Tossup

Utah from Likely GOP to Lean GOP

Mississippi / Montana from Lean GOP to Likely GOP

New Jersey from Lean Dem to Likely Dem.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2016, 12:07:40 PM »

FL in the Lean Dem column is great news!
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2016, 12:11:59 PM »

Looks right but not so sure about NV.  It is hard to poll. IIRC Obama over performed polls in NV by around 4%.  It is hard to get right sample of Latino voters, especially with English only polls and doubly so with robopolls. Assuming Clinton and Reid have the unions and GOTV operations ready, NV is not going to be the tipping point winner for Trump
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xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2016, 12:17:56 PM »

I disagree with making NV a toss-up. Polls have consistently undersampled Latinos, and had a Republican bias, as a result. I certainly wouldn't make it a toss-up if Florida is Lean D.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2016, 12:24:59 PM »
« Edited: July 01, 2016, 12:27:42 PM by HillOfANight »

The PAC and campaign is spending heavily in Nevada. Unless there's proof otherwise, can't just assume 2016 like will be 2012. If they don't spend at all, this could easily slip to GOP.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/
538 ultimately predicts a Clinton win, but so far, there's only been 2 unfavorable polls for her.


http://axiomstrategies.com/abc/washoe/
There was also that poll from the GOP pollster with Trump 46-34 in Washoe County (Reno).
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Devils30
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« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2016, 12:26:02 PM »

Florida is not going Hillary without Nevada and Colorado as well.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #6 on: July 01, 2016, 12:32:08 PM »

I disagree with making NV a toss-up. Polls have consistently undersampled Latinos, and had a Republican bias, as a result. I certainly wouldn't make it a toss-up if Florida is Lean D.

I'd take PA out of tossup and put it in Lean D as well.  Trump has not led a single poll there since last October, and several polls have put Clinton ahead by double digits.
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Devils30
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« Reply #7 on: July 01, 2016, 12:32:13 PM »

Would anyone be stunned if Nevada polls point to a 2% Hillary lead and she wins it by 12% on election night?
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Holmes
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« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2016, 12:34:17 PM »

Would anyone be stunned if Nevada polls point to a 2% Hillary lead and she wins it by 12% on election night?

Yes.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2016, 12:40:54 PM »

Would anyone be stunned if Nevada polls point to a 2% Hillary lead and she wins it by 12% on election night?

Stunned at the first, not at the second.

Also if Nevada takes 12 points of the D, it's going come with a generous portion of Johnson.

Clinton 49
Trump 37
Johnson 14
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xingkerui
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« Reply #10 on: July 01, 2016, 12:43:59 PM »

Would anyone be stunned if Nevada polls point to a 2% Hillary lead and she wins it by 12% on election night?

A little bit. If polls in Nevada are off by about 5% in the end, I won't be surprised, but 10%!?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: July 01, 2016, 12:48:35 PM »

Florida is Lean Dem while North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania are toss-ups? Do we have data suggest Nevada will be competitive, not really sure where they're coming from. Its a decent map, just a bit weird imo.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #12 on: July 01, 2016, 12:49:10 PM »

I see that 2012 taught people nothing about overestimating Republican strength. If Romney couldn't carry Nevada, Trump surely cannot.
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Devils30
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« Reply #13 on: July 01, 2016, 12:49:56 PM »

Virginia should be lean D too.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #14 on: July 01, 2016, 12:53:10 PM »

FL in the Lean Dem column is great news!

Especially given that it'd only be a 34 EV lead with 124 toss-ups without it....
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EliteLX
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« Reply #15 on: July 01, 2016, 12:57:19 PM »

* Virginia is a tossup state.

* Florida is not.

lol
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RaphaelDLG
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« Reply #16 on: July 01, 2016, 01:13:43 PM »

Do they know something about Florida that we don't?!?
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #17 on: July 01, 2016, 01:17:07 PM »

Agree with others here.
Nevada should be, at minimum, Lean Dem.
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DS0816
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« Reply #18 on: July 01, 2016, 02:10:54 PM »

Looks like the same map is going to get pushed for several election cycles.

If a Democrat wins the U.S. Popular Vote by +10, or greater, for how much longer can a news source pretend the light red states haven’t moved over to at least become yellow?
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Deblano
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« Reply #19 on: July 01, 2016, 02:17:03 PM »

I'm guessing the "muh Democratic Utah" may-may has turned into dust, recently?
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #20 on: July 01, 2016, 04:51:41 PM »

RE: Nevada polling

here is a table comparing the RCP avg vs actual result for NV and FL and OH

Year      NV           FL          OH   
2012   R+3.9   R+2.4   R+0.1   
2008   R+6.0   R+1.0   R+2.1   
2004   R+3.7   D+5.0   --   

So each cycle the polls in Nevada have overestimated the GOP candidate by 4-6 points. Whereas in FL and OH it has been much closer, except in 2004 in FL where they really overestimated Kerry.  

And with a young population and so many new people moving in and out of NV and with the trends away from landlines and the growth of Latinos, its not like there are any indications polling is getting any better. I just think NBC and others forget about how pollsters consistently blow it in Nevada.  

That doesn't mean it is safe or even likely Clinton, but it isn't more likely than Florida.  
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #21 on: July 01, 2016, 05:35:05 PM »

Jon Ralston speculates based on internal polls he has seen that Hillary is ahead by high single digits in NV - coupled with the surge in DEM voter registrations in Clark County it will be difficult for any R to win the state.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #22 on: July 01, 2016, 05:39:47 PM »

Nevada will NEVER go to Trump..
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #23 on: July 01, 2016, 05:40:55 PM »
« Edited: July 01, 2016, 05:54:43 PM by ProudModerate2 »


Oh wow.
Is it just me, or is this the first time we are seeing you (LibertarianRepublican) in Red ?
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #24 on: July 01, 2016, 05:48:01 PM »


You're surprised by this? Lol.
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