NBC: Clinton 253 Trump 190 Tossup 95 (NV moving towards Trump)

[Likely Voter]

Looks right but not so sure about NV.  It is hard to poll. IIRC Obama over performed polls in NV by around 4%.  It is hard to get right sample of Latino voters, especially with English only polls and doubly so with robopolls. Assuming Clinton and Reid have the unions and GOTV operations ready, NV is not going to be the tipping point winner for Trump

[Likely Voter]

RE: Nevada polling

here is a table comparing the RCP avg vs actual result for NV and FL and OH

Year      NV           FL          OH   
2012   R+3.9   R+2.4   R+0.1   
2008   R+6.0   R+1.0   R+2.1   
2004   R+3.7   D+5.0   --   

So each cycle the polls in Nevada have overestimated the GOP candidate by 4-6 points. Whereas in FL and OH it has been much closer, except in 2004 in FL where they really overestimated Kerry.  

And with a young population and so many new people moving in and out of NV and with the trends away from landlines and the growth of Latinos, its not like there are any indications polling is getting any better. I just think NBC and others forget about how pollsters consistently blow it in Nevada.  

That doesn't mean it is safe or even likely Clinton, but it isn't more likely than Florida.