NBC: Clinton 253 Trump 190 Tossup 95 (NV moving towards Trump)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I disagree with making NV a toss-up. Polls have consistently undersampled Latinos, and had a Republican bias, as a result. I certainly wouldn't make it a toss-up if Florida is Lean D.

I'd take PA out of tossup and put it in Lean D as well.  Trump has not led a single poll there since last October, and several polls have put Clinton ahead by double digits.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Would anyone be stunned if Nevada polls point to a 2% Hillary lead and she wins it by 12% on election night?

Stunned at the first, not at the second.

Also if Nevada takes 12 points of the D, it's going come with a generous portion of Johnson.

Clinton 49
Trump 37
Johnson 14