Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Alabama
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  Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Alabama
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Poll
Question: Rate Alabama and Predict Who Will Win
#1
Safe D
 
#2
Likely D
 
#3
Lean D
 
#4
Toss-Up
 
#5
Lean R
 
#6
Likely R
 
#7
Safe R
 
#8
Trump
 
#9
Clinton
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 149

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Alabama  (Read 3609 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: July 01, 2016, 12:42:51 PM »

Hi, starting with a new month I thought I would create a new series where we rate each state and DC and predict who will win each state. This will be an ongoing series starting in alphabetical order, I encourage everyone to go back and change votes as the election develops. I will have each previous thread linked in each new thread. I will create two maps along the way, one for ratings, and one for winning predictions. The ratings will be based on the median response, not the response that gets the most number of votes. Please be serious about the votes, don't vote Safe D for Alabama as some kind of sarcasm, for example (unless you actually think Alabama is Safe D Tongue). Some of these will be painfully obvious, but I want to get a final result that reflects what Atlas really thinks. Ratings are up to interpretation. Hopefully as many people participate as possible and people enjoy this Smiley Note: I know I don't have a tilt category here, if you think a state tilts a certain way, choose the lean option.

A new thread for a new state will be posted every two days (should take it up to October). I know that ratings and predictions of who will win are available in the predictions section, but many of those are outdated and don't accurately reflect the forum now. This I hope will do a better job of that.

Also, optional: Provide percentages for what you think the final result will be, if enough people do that I can also accumulate data for what people think the results will look like.

Finally, Alabama: Safe R, Trump, 62-36 Trump.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2016, 12:45:28 PM »

I'll definitely want to update my predictions for percentages as we get closer to the election, but my rating of this state almost certainly won't change: Safe Trump (R)

For now, I'll say Trump wins 59-38.
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AGA
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« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2016, 12:58:57 PM »
« Edited: July 01, 2016, 07:40:39 PM by Chrome »

Safe R, Trump

62% Trump
36% Clinton
2% Others
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HAnnA MArin County
semocrat08
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« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2016, 01:11:41 PM »

Safe Trump

Trump 59
Clinton 39
Johnson 1
Others 1
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Spark
Spark498
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« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2016, 01:18:16 PM »
« Edited: July 07, 2016, 09:44:13 AM by Spark498 »

Safe R for Trump. 63-37
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Nyvin
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« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2016, 01:22:19 PM »

Safe R, Trump
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« Reply #6 on: July 01, 2016, 02:53:16 PM »
« Edited: July 01, 2016, 03:12:46 PM by Beef »

Flips if Clinton wins the national vote by 30 points, 63-33.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #7 on: July 01, 2016, 02:57:43 PM »

Safe R , Trump wins59-39-2
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2016, 03:10:33 PM »

I pressed "Safe D"  by accident. "Safe R" is more like it.

Alabama should be one of the surest states for Trump, as the partisan divide will closely follow partisan lines. In view of Trump struggling to get out of the 30s in Utah, I can imagine only Oklahoma and West Virginia being safer for Trump.   
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2016, 03:15:57 PM »

I pressed "Safe D"  by accident. "Safe R" is more like it.

You can always change your vote.
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hurricanehink
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« Reply #10 on: July 01, 2016, 03:53:55 PM »

I voted Trump, but don't forget to include Johnson for future states, who I think has a shot in a few states (call me crazy).
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #11 on: July 01, 2016, 04:00:43 PM »

Safe R, Trump, 57-40.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #12 on: July 01, 2016, 04:40:24 PM »

If Johnson fades:

Trump 60
Clinton 37
Johnson 2
Others 1

If he doesn't:

Trump 58
Clinton 35
Johnson 6
Others 1
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KingSweden
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« Reply #13 on: July 01, 2016, 04:47:24 PM »

Safe R
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VPH
vivaportugalhabs
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« Reply #14 on: July 01, 2016, 05:35:52 PM »

Democrats remained competitive in parts of Northern Alabama right up through 2000. Sadly today those are bygone times
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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: July 01, 2016, 05:50:05 PM »

Please be serious about the votes, don't vote Safe D for Alabama as some kind of sarcasm, for example (unless you actually think Alabama is Safe D Tongue).

You were basically begging for that one person to vote Safe D. Tongue

Anyway, Safe R, Trump wins 61-37.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #16 on: July 01, 2016, 05:57:43 PM »

Democrats remained competitive in parts of Northern Alabama right up through 2000. Sadly today those are bygone times

Didn't Bush underperform in Alabama in 2000?

Slightly. He won it 57-42. Gore won five counties that aren't considered part of the black belt but surprisingly lost Jefferson County (Birmingham)
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #17 on: July 01, 2016, 06:34:43 PM »

I voted Trump, but don't forget to include Johnson for future states, who I think has a shot in a few states (call me crazy).

I think I'll include an 'Other' option in future polls, just in case. Don't expect too many people to choose it, and I don't expect Johnson or Stein to become competitive, but if they do I don't want to have no option. Shouldn't matter for Alabama.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: July 01, 2016, 06:35:47 PM »

I pressed "Safe D"  by accident. "Safe R" is more like it.

You can always change your vote.

I just did.
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Skye
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« Reply #19 on: July 01, 2016, 06:46:30 PM »

Trump 59
Clinton 38
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Badger
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« Reply #20 on: July 01, 2016, 09:22:13 PM »

I voted Trump, but don't forget to include Johnson for future states, who I think has a shot in a few states (call me crazy).

you're crazy
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #21 on: July 01, 2016, 10:19:16 PM »

Safe R
Trump 59
Clinton 39
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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #22 on: July 01, 2016, 10:37:27 PM »

Safe Trump. He should get between 55 and 60 percent of the vote.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #23 on: July 01, 2016, 10:45:41 PM »

I voted Likely R because I'm holding out hope for a total Trump campaign implosion that leads to a 50-state landslide for Hillary.
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Soonerdem
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« Reply #24 on: July 01, 2016, 11:46:40 PM »

Safe R trump 56-39 Clinton. Basically 2012 with trump down and Johnson up a few points.
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