The Ascendant

[Kingpoleon]

Who won the 2011 Gubernatorial Elections?

[NHI]

Bush and his Big Brother

Jeb Bush has largely run his Presidential campaign without having addressed his family name and moreover his brother, George W. Bush. The Former Florida Governor has repeatedly said "I am my own man and while I love my brother and my dad I am not influenced one way or the other. I answer to me." However, Palin has recently gone on the attack, calling out Bush for his family name and blasted him "for offering no solutions, other than a family last name as a reason his candidacy". The real test for Bush will come in South Carolina, where he hopes to best Palin and score any chance of winning the Republican nomination.

Obama Hopes for Rebound in Nevada, as O'Malley and Lynch Surge

Losing in an upset to Martin O'Malley in Iowa and finishing third with a poor 18% in New Hampshire, Obama is hoping to reset his campaign with a win in Nevada, a state where his team has been organizing after Obama's Iowa loss.

Lynch Looks to Florida after New Hampshire Win

Fueled by his landslide win in New Hampshire, John Lynch is raking in major dollars and moving his campaign operation to Florida, where the New Hampshire governor hopes to have a good showing and is actively courting the endorsement of Governor Alex Sink, who has said she'll endorse before the primary at the end of January.

Meanwhile, Governor Martin O'Malley is looking to challenge Barack Obama in Nevada, with a hope of repeating his Iowa magic, but outpacing the Illinois Governor in terms of support.

Palin Blast Bush: "Low Energy!"

Running close against Jeb Bush in South Carolina, Sarah Palin is pulling out all the stops ahead of Saturday's vote. She knows a loss to Bush here could give his campaign the needed boost to go all the way to the convention. Despite the endorsement by Nikki Haley, Palin only leads Bush 46% to 43%. "We're being threatened by the establishment," Palin told supporters in Greenville. "Don't let them win!" As the campaign takes a personal note, especially after Palin's loss in New Hampshire, the Vice President is going on the attack, blasting Bush's family name, his conservative credentials and ties to big money. "He is low on ideas, low on support and low on energy!"

Bush, meanwhile continues to campaign with "joy" in South Carolina, knowing he is the verge of momentum. "We win here, we can win anywhere!"

Nevada Caucus/South Carolina Primary

Nevada Caucus: Obama Wins!

✓ Barack Obama: 34.3%
Martin O'Malley: 33.9%
John Lynch: 31.8%

Race too Close to Call Between Palin & Bush


SC Republican Primary: Too Close to Call
Jeb Bush: 48.76%
Sarah Palin: 48.01%
Ron Paul: 2.79%

[NHI]

Who won the 2011 Gubernatorial Elections?

KY: Beshear defeats Williams: 57% to 39%. (D HOLD)
LA: Blanco defeats Jindal: 52% to 47% (D PICKUP)
MS: Byrant defeats Dupree: 59% to 40%. (R HOLD)
WV: Tomblin defeats Maloney: 51% to 48%. (D HOLD)

[NHI]

✓ Palin Wins South Carolina Primary

✓ Sarah Palin: 49.24%
Jeb Bush: 48.24%
Ron Paul: 2.11%
Other: 0.46%

Sarah Palin is the projected winner in the South Carolina Primary, narrowly defeating Governor Jeb Bush. Palin was benefited from strong grassroots support, as well as the endorsement from the states' popular governor, Nikki Haley. The campaign now shifts to Nevada and Florida. Polls in Nevada find Palin ahead of Bush 51% to 43%, while in Florida Bush leads 58% to 37%.

CNN: Preference for the Republican Nomination
Sarah Palin: 46%
Jeb Bush: 37%
Ron Paul: 2%
Undecided: 16%

Obama Narrowly Ahead in Latest CNN National Poll


CNN: Preference for the Democratic Nomination
Barack Obama: 30%
Martin O'Malley: 26%
John Lynch: 25%
Undecided: 19%

Obama Wins South Carolina, Lynch a "Surprise" Second

✓ Barack Obama: 47.91%
John Lynch: 30.58%
Martin O'Malley: 21.50%

Delegate Count: Updated

Sarah Palin: 46 (48.2%)
Jeb Bush: 16 (47.0%)
Ron Paul: 2 (4.5%)

Barack Obama: 70 (33.8%)
John Lynch: 57 (36.9%)
Martin O'Malley: 47 (28.7%)

End of January: Florida

Lynch Sees Numbers Rise in Florida; Obama Looks to Sink For Endorsement


CNN: POLL Republican Primary (Bush +14)
Jeb Bush: 54%
Sarah Palin: 40%
Ron Paul: 3%

CNN POLL: Democratic Primary (Obama +3)
Barack Obama: 36%
John Lynch: 33%
Martin O'Malley: 22%
Undecided: 9%

[Kingpoleon]

What did Sink get? Because in 2010 she got:

FL: R HOLD
✓ Charlie Crist: 49.5%
Alex Sink: 48.8%

PA: R HOLD
✓ Arlen Specter: 52.5%
Joe Sestek: 45.0%

[NHI]

What did Sink get? Because in 2010 she got:

FL: R HOLD
✓ Charlie Crist: 49.5%
Alex Sink: 48.8%

PA: R HOLD
✓ Arlen Specter: 52.5%
Joe Sestek: 45.0%

That's supposed to be Kendrick Meeks, not Sink. She was elected Gov in 2010.

[NHI]

Alex Sinks Backs John Lynch: "Transformative Leader America Needs!"

Florida Governor has thrown her support behind fellow Governor John Lynch ahead of the critical Florida primary. Polls find a close race between Lynch and Barack Obama. Martin O'Malley's numbers continue to slip. Political pundits believe the Florida primary could be a turning point, ahead of the Super Tuesday states, especially as Barack Obama looks to regain his footing after winning Nevada and South Carolina.

John Lynch Wins the Florida Primary

✓ John Lynch: 37.99%
Barack Obama: 36.11% 
Martin O'Malley: 24.90%

Obama Concedes Florida, Will Press on
[/img]
"We've only begun to fight!" Barack Obama told his supporters after his narrow loss in Florida, a state which likely flipped to John Lynch after he received the endorsement from Florida Governor Alex Sink.

Jeb Bush Wins Florida Primary

✓ Jeb Bush: 57.01%
Sarah Palin: 39.65%
Ron Paul: 2.34%

[tmthforu94]

Let's go Jeb!

[NHI]

The Party of Bush

Even with the election of John McCain, the legacy of George W. Bush has hung largely over the 2012 Republican field, and with the addition of Jeb Bush vying for the GOP nod against Vice President Palin, the party is slowly coming to grips over its identity and direction forward. Are they as one pundit put it, "the party of the eastern elites or the party of the grassroots?" George W. Bush, the former Governor of Texas and who ran as a "compassionate conservative" came to represent and embody much of the traditional Republican establishment and the very much what the party base rejected about McCain. Only by the inclusion of Palin on the ticket in 2008, did McCain's chances improve.

"Palin is very much an embodiment of the conservative base of the party who up until her did not have a singular figure they could latch onto," Matthew Dowd said on ABC's This Week. "She's a lot like Reagan. There is a rapport for her among the grassroots and a disdain for her by the elites. The difference is, Reagan eventually got everybody on board the same team, I don't know if Palin can do that, especially running against someone like Jeb Bush."

Bush's campaign has been on an upward trajectory since winning New Hampshire and narrowly losing South Carolina. He won decisively in his home state of Florida and followed it up with a victory in the Nevada Caucus, beating Palin 52% to 44%. Bush also defeated Palin in Colorado (49% to 45%) Maine, where his family compound is (61% to 32%) and in Michigan (50% to 45%).

Palin's campaign has struggled to find its footing in the wake of their losses to Bush. Even as they try to define him as a "member of the establishment" the Palin camp is finding it difficult to tie the Bush name to Bush, especially in a party very much still defined by the Bushes and their legacy. "It's David and Goliath now," Newt Gingrich said on this week's Meet The Press. "She started out the favorite, clearly given she is the Vice President, but I think she underestimated the power of the Republican establishment that would very much rather nominate a moderate Republican in the vein of President McCain."

Palin's wins leading up to Super Tuesday have been in Missouri, where she only bested Bush with only 50% of the vote and in Arizona, again where she fell below expectations, winning only with 52% of the vote, compared to Bush's 46%. In Minnesota, Palin narrowly edged out Bush 48.67% to 47.59%. The Wyoming Caucuses are currently on going, but Palin is expected to win the contest.

Many expect the Republican race to hinge on the Super Tuesday results. A strong showing by Bush could put him in a better position to win the nomination, whereas a set of strong wins by Palin would all be guarantee her the nomination.

Bush: 177 (50.48%)
Palin: 143 (46.52%)
Paul: 2 (2.99%)

Pre-Super Tuesday Results:

Bush Wins Washington Caucuses

Washington Caucus:
✓ Jeb Bush: 53.09% (27)
Sarah Palin: 44.00% (17)
Ron Paul: 2.91%

Palin Crushes Bush in the Wyoming Caucuses

Washington Caucus:
✓ Sarah Palin: 71.81% (25)
Sarah Palin: 26.52%
Ron Paul: 1.67%

Delegate Count: Pre-Super Tuesday
Bush: 204 (50.16%)
Palin: 185 (47.99%)

Palin: We've Only Just Begun to Fight!

Closing off her Super Tuesday campaign with a final rally in Alaska, Vice President Palin blasted "the Republican big-wigs" who she says are rigging the election in "favor of Bush". "Here in America, the people decide," Palin said. "We do not elect kings or queens or decide who rules by family blood! We let the people decide and the people will not be bought or ignored!" Running on the populist tenors which helped his Vice Presidential campaign four years and likely delivered John McCain the White House, Palin is hoping to strike a similar tone by rallying the grassroots and turning out the vote for ahead of Tuesday's contests. She knows the stakes, a poor showing especially in a state like Ohio where polls show her leading Bush 47% to 44%, her campaign is finished.

"I do best when I have my back against the wall," Palin said on the rope line. "When people count me out, that's when I surprise everyone!"

Super Tuesday: 2012 (Republicans)

Vermont Primary:
✓ Jeb Bush: 59.09% (15)
Sarah Palin: 37.00% (2)
Ron Paul: 3.91%

Massachusetts Primary:
✓ Jeb Bush: 56.99% (30)
Sarah Palin: 40.58% (8 )
Ron Paul: 2.41%

Oklahoma Primary:
✓ Sarah Palin: 60.59% (34)
Jeb Bush: 37.51% (6)
Ron Paul: 1.90%

Tennessee Primary:
✓ Sarah Palin: 50.09% (27)
Jeb Bush: 48.28% (25)
Ron Paul: 1.62%

Virginia Primary:
✓ Jeb Bush: 55.04% (29)
Sarah Palin: 42.69% (17)
Ron Paul: 1.27%

North Dakota Caucus:
✓ Sarah Palin: 55.04% (19)
Jeb Bush: 43.79% (9)
Ron Paul: 1.17%

Georgia Primary:
✓ Jeb Bush: 49.09% (39)
Sarah Palin: 48.91% (37)
Ron Paul: 1.94%

Idaho Caucus:
✓ Sarah Palin: 65.51% (32)
Jeb Bush: 33.79%
Ron Paul: 0.07%

Alaska Caucus:
✓ Sarah Palin: 76.99% (24)
Jeb Bush: 19.01%
Ron Paul: 5.00%

Ohio Primary:
✓ Jeb Bush: 48.59% (35)
Sarah Palin: 47.97% (28)
Ron Paul: 3.40%

Super Tuesday Result:
Palin: 5/10 Contests  (228 Delegates)
Bush: 5/10 Contests (190 Delegates)

Sarah Palin: 413 (48.79%)
Jeb Bush: 392 (49.05%)
Ron Paul: 2 (2.08%)

Palin: I can Win!

The VP boldly declares she will win the Republican Nomination and "defeat whoever the Democrats put up against me!"

[tmthforu94]

You have Massachusetts shaded wrong.

Bush seems to be on track to win - narrow wins in Michigan and Ohio and a sizable victory in Virigina, similar to Romney's path in 2012.

[NHI]

Deadlocked GOP

Jeb Bush: 1,066 (49.13%) Needs 78 Delegates
Sarah Palin: 1,027 (49.89%) Needs 117 Delegates

The bitter Republican Primary failed to end with a candidate winning a majority of the delegates needed to be nominated at the convention. Jeb Bush claimed a narrow win in the California Primary (50.6%-49.1%), putting him within 78 delegates of the Republican nomination, while Vice President Palin lagged behind with 117 delegates short. For the first time in decades The Republican Party was heading into the convention without a clear contender for the Republican nomination.

Bush's campaign argued his victory in a plurality of the delegates and in the popular vote as a sign Jeb Bush is the favorite of Republican voters. "We've come out ahead," Bush's campaign manger Mike Murphy said on the stump. Palin took to the microphone to blast Bush saying, "a plurality and hardly reflective of the GOP electorate." Also, Vice President lambasted Bush and the establishment as trying to rig the primary. Telling her supporters after narrowly losing California Primary, "we will not go quietly and we will win this nomination!"

Despite Palin's stature as the Vice President, she fell behind Jeb Bush in organizational strength, as well as support from party insiders who flocked to Bush. Many political observers believe Bush is likely to win the nomination, given how few delegates he needs to clinch the nomination as well as his campaign infrastructure and heavy support from RNC elites.

"This is Bush's nomination to lose," said former McCain Adviser Steve Schmidt. "Palin is ready for a street fight and if Bush muffles this things could very badly for the Republican Party in the fall."

Gingrich Defends Palin: She Needs to be the Nominee

Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and possible Vice Presidential candidate for Sarah Palin came to the defense of the Vice President and attacked Jeb Bush and his campaign. "What we are seeing here is a clear play by the political establishment trying to hold onto their power and they're desperate." Gingrich equated the similarities between the 2012 race with Bush and Palin to the primary of 1976 between Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan. "The establishment won that race and we lost."

McCain: The Unpopular President

Sitting on a 35% approval rating John McCain is likely to be of little help to his Vice President and possible successor, Sarah Palin. McCain remained neutral during the primary, though he hinted at favoring Palin as the Republican nominee. With the race over, but deadlocked McCain offered his thoughts on the likely brokered convention. "I think Sarah Palin would be wonderful and would do a superb job as President," McCain said to Today's Matt Lauer. "Now right now we have a divided party and the first task of the nominee is to unite the party once it is clear who the nominee will be." When pressed if he plans to back Palin ahead of the convention, McCain remained undecided. "I don't think it's my place to tell delegates over whom they should or should not vote for to be the nominee."

CNN: Who should be the Republican Nominee?
Jeb Bush: 49%
Sarah Palin: 49%

Bush Hints at Rick Perry for VP

Ahead of the Republican Convention and amid the delegate jockeying Jeb Bush named Texas Governor Rick Perry as potential candidate for Vice President, should he win the Republican nomination. "What he has done in Texas is a lot like what I did Florida, which is forward-thinking pragmatic conservative solutions." Rick Perry has declined to comment on the speculation, despite backing Vice President Palin in the primary. Bush has stated he will name a Vice President to be vote on the floor, should he win the nomination.



Palin/Gingrich

Sarah Palin announced to the delegates as voting is setting to take place at the Republican National Convention, her choice for Vice President: Newt Gingrich. "If I am nominated I will run on a ticket with the former House Speaker Newt Gingrich," Palin told supporters at a rally. "We will run on a bold ticket of conservative, common sense solutions to help right America and move our country forward!"

Many criticized Palin's decision to name a Vice President before having been nominated, drawing similar comparison to Ronald Reagan's failed gambit to name a VP at the 1976 Convention.

Palin, also continued to chastised Bush as "puppet of the establishment" and someone who would "bring the party to its knees and destroy it." Her verbal assaults on Bush grew worse as the primary progressed, angering many longtime Republicans, who either favored Bush or remained neutral in the primary. "She shows uncharacteristic traits of those running or wanting to be President," said Former George W. Bush adviser Mark McKinnon. "It's sad for a Vice President to act in such a way."

It's Jeb!

Call is backroom dealings, call it shady dealings, call it politics: Republican delegates rallied to the Former Florida Governor and nominated him on the 1st ballot to be the Republican nominee. John Ellis "Jeb" Bush secured the Republican nomination, beating out Vice President Sarah Palin after a bitter primary, which left the Republican Party in tatters.

Republican National Convention: 1st Ballot
✓  John Ellis Bush: 1,151
Sarah L. Palin: 1,010

Bush-Huckabee

In hopes of uniting a very fracture party Jeb Bush turned to Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee to run with him as Vice President. Picking Huckabee, an early Palin supporter was seen as a wise move by Bush who need to sure up the conservative element of the party, who would have much rather had Palin as the nominee.

[NHI]

Obama Finds his Mojo!

Barack Obama rode into Super Tuesday, behind in the polls after losing the Florida primary to New Hampshire Governor John Lynch. Lynch, the dark horse candidate looked to knock Obama out of the running on Super Tuesday by sweeping many of the states, however his gamble failed to pay off. Coupled with increased attacks from Martin O'Malley Lynch's campaign stumbled going into Super Tuesday and was forced to refocus his campaign organization to fend off O'Malley. 

To the New Hampshire Governor's dismay O'Malley stumped Lynch by carrying the contests in Alaska, Idaho and North Dakota, allowing Obama to pickup the piece by sweeping the many contests including Virginia and Ohio, both states a week earlier had been trending to Lynch. Obama won them easily: 41% to Lynch's 30% in Ohio, and 44% to Lynch's 29% in Virginia.

Barack Obama (37.5%)
John Lynch (32.4%)
Martin O'Malley: (29.1%)

[tmthforu94]

Obama seems a lot like Hillary in 2016 - vulnerable, but there is just too much power behind him to take him down.

[GoTfan]

Obama seems a lot like Hillary in 2016 - vulnerable, but there is just too much power behind him to take him down.

Yeah. Definitely seeing parallels with the 2016 primary.

[NHI]

✓  Barack Obama: 46.8% (Presumptive Nominee) 23 States+DC, PR, AS, US VI, Dems. Abroad (28 Contests In Total)

John Lynch: 43.7% (23 States)

Martin O'Malley: 8.9% (4 States)
Other: 0.6%

Obama Wins the Democratic Nomination

Despite a persistent challenge from New Hampshire Governor John Lynch, Governor Barack Obama crossed the finish line and secured the Democratic Nomination with a win in the California Primary. (55% for Obama, 44% for Lynch).  Obama now faces the challenge of stitching together the different factions of the Democratic Primary after a difficult and at times contentious primary. Both Lynch and Obama are expected to meet in late June to discuss the primary and their efforts to unify the Democratic Party. While Lynch is bruised after coming close to winning the nomination, he has reiterated his pledge to "keep Sarah Palin or Jeb Bush out of the White House!" 

Obama Selects Lynch for VP

Barack Obama is avoiding the mistake of four years ago and is instead picking his closest competitor in the Democratic Primary, John Lynch for Vice President. "Lynch ran an able, smart and competitive campaign," Obama said on the stump in Lynch's New Hampshire. "He's someone we need in government and someone I want by my side to help turn this country around!"

Obama 2.0: "Together we will make a better America!"

For the first time since 1952 a major party has nominated the previous losing candidate consecutively. Barack Obama is hoping to avoid the fate of Adlai Stevenson and win his second go at the White House.

CNN Election Poll

Obama: 48% (+8)

Bush: 40%

Obama: 257

Bush: 180

Tossup: 102

President McCain Approval Ratings

Approve: 33%

Disapprove: 51%
No Opinion: 16%

Republicans: Do you support the Nomination of Jeb Bush via the Brokered Convention?

No: 47%

Yes: 43%

Undecided: 10%

[MisterElection2001]

Obama seems a lot like Hillary in 2016 - vulnerable, but there is just too much power behind him to take him down.

Yeah. Definitely seeing parallels with the 2016 primary.

Another parallel is the fact that a significant amount of Republicans don't approve of the nominee. The battleground map is also kind of similar.

[heatcharger]

*It is worthy of note, the recession does not occur in this TL as it did in real life. The economy limps along and dips into a recession after the start of McCain's first term. However, Bush fatigue and strong ground games by the Democrats help deliver an increased control of the Senate from 51-53.

Bush's approval ratings were already in the dumps before the Recession, so if McCain could pull off a victory then I suspect Jeb Bush will win this one as well.

Also I wonder why Indiana isn't a tossup this time around. This is quite interesting though.

[Kingpoleon]

Hopefully O'Malley gives the keynote. Right now I'm strongly leaning towards Obama/O'Malley, especially if Bush doesn't pick someone like Condoleezza Rice.

[NHI]

Convention Highlights:

O'Malley Blasts Bush & McCain: No more 'More of the Same'

Shaheen introduces Lynch: "A Progressive Fighter Who Gets Things Done!"

Lynch: "We're Going to Fix Our Country!"

Obama: "I pledge to lead a united and strong America!"

Palin: "Republicans Vote Your Conscience!"

Huckabee: "We Must United, Too Much at Stake!"

Bush: "I'll be the voice for forgotten Americans."

Headlines:

New York Times: Obama Rallies Democrats, Promises better America
Washington Post: Bush Leads A Fractured GOP
Politico: Insiders Say Obama Hit it Out of the Park; Bush Did The Best He Could

Post Convention Poll: CNN, FOX, NBC (Democratic)

Barack Obama: 46%

Jeb Bush: 40%

Barack Obama: 48%

Jeb Bush: 40%

Barack Obama: 47%

Jeb Bush: 40%

Post Convention Poll: CNN, FOX, NBC (Republican)

Barack Obama: 46%

Jeb Bush: 42%

Barack Obama: 48%

Jeb Bush: 44%

Barack Obama: 47%

Jeb Bush: 43%

[NHI]

Sarah Palin: Never Blue Bloods

Speaking to Today Show's Matt Lauer, Vice President Sarah Palin blasted the Republican Nomination of Jeb Bush as "a fix" and signs of a corrupted system. When asked if she would vote for Bush in November against Democrat Barack Obama, she responded, "I'm Never Obama, but I'm never Blue Bloods either."

Obama: I'm the Candidate of Change

Blasting the dismal economy and the Republican convention chaos, Barack Obama presented himself as the candidate best able to bring about the change millions of Americans are seeking, as well as a uniting figure. "We have been knocked down and we feel everything is broken," Obama said. "Well, we're gonna get up and everything is going to be fine. America is coming back!"

CNN POLL: September 2012

Barack Obama: 48%

Jeb Bush: 42%

Can Bush Recover

The latest round of national polls offer a slim chance of hope for Jeb Bush and his Presidential campaign. The former Florida Governor trails Democrat Illinois Governor Barack Obama from 6 to even 10 points based on the polling. The Bush campaign stresses they are confident their numbers will improve, as most Americans are just starting to pay attention.

The chaotic Republican convention, which awarded Bush the nomination over Vice President Palin in a brokered deal, is leaving many hardcore Republicans screaming fraud and vowing to sit home in November or vote third party. The Bush campaign, again is brushing off worries saying, "there are only two clear choices. It's like a meal at a wedding," chief strategist Stuart Stevens said on CNN, "you have two offerings; fish or chicken."

Adding to the round of bad national polls are the latest state polls which show Bush losing ground to Barack Obama. In the critical state of Ohio, Obama leads Bush 47% to 41%, while in New Hampshire Obama leads 50% to 39%; a state, where Bush won the primary over Sarah Palin. Even in Bush's home state of Florida, the former Governor's numbers are not as strong as expected. Bush leads Obama head-to-head, 52% to Obama's 42%.

On a whole Bush's favorable numbers stand at a meager 42%, one of the lowest on record for a major candidate for President, compared to Obama's 48% favorable rating.

Nate Silver: If Election were today, then Obama Wins!

Editor-in-chief of Five-Thirty Eight Blog, Nate Silver said on ABC's This Week, 'if the election were held today at this moment, Barack Obama would be the 45th President of the United States, easily winning 332 electoral votes and a sizable portion of the popular vote."

Battleground Polling: RCP

Ohio:
Obama: 47.91%
Bush: 42.04%

Indiana:
Bush: 48.06%
Obama: 43.47%

Iowa:
Obama: 48.80%
Bush: 44.09%

Missouri:
Bush: 48.07%
Obama: 44.04%

Georgia:
Bush: 47.55%
Obama: 42.97%

Florida:
Bush: 51.96%
Obama: 40.87%

North Carolina:
Obama: 47.69%
Bush: 45.92%

Virginia:
Obama: 48.01%
Bush: 45.97%

Colorado:
Obama: 46.97%
Bush: 44.02%

Arizona:
Bush: 47.01%
Obama: 43.64%

Montana:
Bush: 48.45%
Obama: 43.69%

Nevada:
Obama: 48.56%
Bush: 42.69%

[NHI]

Obama: Time turn to the Page

Barack Obama came ready for a fight against Jeb Bush, who remained reserved and less confrontational against the Democratic nominee. Obama painted Bush as a straw man combination of John McCain and his brother George W. Bush. "The Republicans don't have any ideas," Obama said. "They're bankrupt, much like they've bankrupted our nation. And now they think they can pull a magic trick on the American people by returning a different face, with a similar name. It's not going to work."
 
Bush's struggles against Obama became apparent during their first debate in late September. The former Florida Governor attempted to avoid calling out or criticizing Barack Obama by name, but instead focusing on his own campaign and message. In their second encounter, Bush tried to take on Obama's healthcare plan and proposal to raise the minimum wage, but the attack fell flat. "The Governor is trying to make us like the French. What is this a French work week?" The remarked received jeers on Twitter and did Bush no favors as he struggles in his race against the Democrat.

The campaign's most recent line of attack is, Obama's decision to run for President, only after being elected Governor in 2010. "He can't stay seated in more than one place," Bush said to a crowd in New Hampshire after the second debate. "He's always looking for a promotion. He likes running for office, he doesn't like serving in office!" This new line of attack seems to be the last line of defense for a campaign out of ideas and strategy to take on the Democratic nominee. Polling find Bush trailing Obama in the Granite State, 49% to 40%.

"They are trapped by events," said Mark Halperin on MSNBC's Morning Joe. "President McCain is deeply unpopular. The economy is struggling along and the man leading the ticket has the last name Bush, a name that does not resonate with the vast majority of Americans, because they blame his brother the former President for much of the ailments in the country today."

Following the previous debate, polls indicated Obama the clear winner over Bush, 54% to 35%.

CNN POLL: October 2012 (Obama +8)

Barack Obama: 49%

Jeb Bush: 41%

CNN: Who do you trust to handle the economy?

Barack Obama: 52%

Jeb Bush: 42%

CNN: Who do you trust to handle foreign affairs?

Barack Obama: 52%

Jeb Bush: 41%

CNN: Who do you believe with bring change to Washington?

Barack Obama: 54%

Jeb Bush: 39%

CNN: Who care more about people like me?

Barack Obama: 53%

Jeb Bush: 40%

Battleground Polling: OBAMA PULLING AWAY

Ohio: Obama+7
Obama: 49%
Bush: 42%

Indiana: Bush+2
Bush: 48%
Obama: 46%

North Carolina: Obama+2
Obama: 48%
Bush: 46%

Virginia: Obama+5
Obama: 49%
Bush: 44%

Georgia: Bush+3
Bush: 48%
Obama: 45%

Missouri: Bush+4
Bush: 48%
Obama: 44%

Iowa: Obama+7
Obama: 50%
Bush: 43%

Colorado: Obama+5
Obama: 47%
Bush: 42%

Arizona: Bush +3
Bush: 47%
Obama: 44%

Nevada: Obama +6
Obama: 47%
Bush: 41%

Montana: Bush +2
Bush: 47%
Obama: 45%

North Dakota: Bush +5
Bush: 48%
Obama: 43%

Nebraska CD 2: Bush +1
Bush: 47%
Obama: 46%

RCP Average: National Race (Obama +6.76)

Barack Obama: 48.97%

Jeb Bush: 42.21%

[Kingpoleon]

I'm rooting for Obama here, and mainly because with four more years of experience, Obama could be a much more realistic President.

[NHI]

Obama Holding On; Election Looms for both Candidates

Coming off another decisive debate win over Jeb Bush (53% to 34%), Barack Obama is heading into the final stretch before Election Day with a commanding lead in the national polls (51% to 43%) and a lead in most state polls. Obama's campaign team are not hedging their bets on an election day blowout, but instead playing cautious, given four years ago they were expected to win and ended up losing narrowly to now President John McCain.

Jeb Bush's campaign remains confident despite their polling deficit against Obama the Republican nominee will prevail. "Based on our record, our experience and vision, we believe the American people will look at the two candidates and make the right choice," said campaign manager Mike Murphy. "Jeb Bush is the one and only person to lead this country after John McCain's successful stewardship.

The Obama Campaign seized on Murphy's "successful stewardship" comment and have already blanketed the airwaves in states like North Carolina, Georgia and Ohio.

"We do not need four more years of the last twelve years," Obama told supporters in Ames, Iowa. "We need change, we need something different." While Obama is speaking to packed arenas and footballs stadiums, Bush and the Republican ticket are lucky to fill a small town hall, showcasing the difference in organization and enthusiasm for the two candidates.

Bush Loses the Party

Jeb Bush promised to be a steady hand for the United States in uncertain times, but the message is failing to resonate. The campaign has largely failed to present a defining message or rational for Bush's candidacy and answer the basic question why he should be the President.

'The trouble for Bush is he is not the nominee the base of the party wanted," said former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and one-time Vice Presidential candidate for Sarah Palin. "The party as a whole would have much rather have had Sarah Palin because she is the future of the party, she is where the party exist. Jeb Bush is the establishment. He is the old order and the American people have rejected it. How McCain managed to win four years ago why by energizing the base and that energizer was Sarah Palin!"

Many Republicans across the spectrum have vowed to vote third party or stay home rather than vote for Jeb Bush. Longtime conservative activist Richard Vingurie said on CBS's Face the Nation, "Jeb Bush is Obama-lite. He's a big government Republican, a continuation of the John McCain, George Bush, Bill Clinton top down approach." Vingurie who backed Palin in the primary and has refused to vote for Bush said, "The Republican party needs to be remade after this election and be remade by conservatives for conservatives, not Democratic, wishy-washy Republicans."

Support for Bush among self-identified conservatives is at a record low for a Republican nominee, while more than half opposing his nomination candidacy. "He deserves to lose," said one party activist. "The system is rigged and rigged against Palin and the people."

"This is a base election," said MSNBC anchor and former Congressman Joe Scarborough, "and the base is against Jeb. Obama has locked up the Democratic base so I think it's not a question of if Republicans lose, but by how much we lose." 

RCP Average: Final before Election Day

Barack Obama: 49.00%

Jeb Bush: 42.06%

[Heisenberg]

Cool timeline, very interesting.

[NHI]

Excerpt from the Book: Shakeup "The Election of 2012"

Jeb Bush arrived in Miami a little after 3 am. He completed his rally for the 2012 Presidential Election, a short while earlier and now would await the verdict from the American people. The final rounds of tracking polls showed a race in Barack Obama's favor, but much like what happened in 2008 there was fluidity, which gave a ray of hope to the Bush team as they hunkered down for what many expected would be a long and emotional day.

"Are we going to lose," Bush said to his top aides as they arrived back in Florida. The temperature was warm and balmy, but the cabin on the 747 was as cold as it ever was back in Iowa in early January of 2012. "Yes or no?"

His aides all looked around. Heads hung, hands ringing. What to say or moreover, how to say it. "It does not look promising," Stuart Stevens piped up. "The polls are not looking good." Bush sighed a desperate moan. His long road to the White House about to reach a road block, a permanent one in fact. Jeb Bush, son of the 41st President of the United States and brother to the 43rd. Two-term Governor of Florida. Now the defacto head of a political dynasty; his political career about to end.

"So be it," Bush exclaimed. "Fine."

Barack Obama began his Election Day, the way he began them all. He started with a game of hoops, followed by breakfast, then off to the local school to cast his vote, for himself, for the second time to be President of the United States. "It's surreal," Obama told his aides en route to the school. "Seems like the campaign never stopped. We just kept going."

Never one to bask in the glow of the moment, or agonize over exit polls or early returns, Obama remained calm and collected throughout the day. His usual self. "No-Drama Obama" became his nickname, but also how he conducted his campaign. Even in the depths of despair, in early 2012 after losing both Iowa and New Hampshire and barely clinging to a win in Nevada, the Illinois Governor, former Senator and Presidential candidate remained determined and unfazed by the hiccup as he called it. "We're going to be fine. We were in worse shape four years ago," Obama said. "No one told us we had a chance against Hillary and look what happened."

Still, some aides were nervous. Four years earlier the final tracking poll put Obama head of McCain, 48% to 47%, an unexpectedly close margin, given the historic nature of Obama's candidacy and his command of the polls prior to election day. What began with good news out of Virginia and Pennsylvania, turned into a drawn-out nail biter with McCain and Obama trading leads back and forth throughout the night.

McCain held onto the critical states of Virginia and Florida, though by narrow margins. 49.8% to 49.1% in Virginia and 49.5% to 48.8% in Florida. Obama kept Pennsylvania, but Ohio stayed Republican going for the GOP ticket 49.4% to 48.9%. Obama would pickup Nevada, but lost Colorado by a whisker. (49.6% to 49.3%). However the election ultimately hinged on New Hampshire, a state four years later was solidly going for Obama, despite never voting for the Democrat in either primary.

McCain's devotion to the state and it's fierce independent nature swung against Obama delivering the crucial four electoral votes to the Arizona Senator thus making him the 44th President of the United States. McCain captured the Granite State 50.0% to Obama's 49.0% and many on his staff urged for recounts, especially in places like Colorado, but Obama refused. He would not taint the McCain victory, who ultimately captured the popular vote, albeit narrowly -- 49.2% to 48.8%.

"I will not be a sore loser," Obama said looking his political future. He was young, he lost in a roller coaster election, there would be another chance, but he would have to wait. Oddly enough he never expected to be the nominee four years later.

After the election Obama lamented McCain, if successful would likely win reelection, despite him running for a fourth Republican term, even if McCain passed, Obama originally remained hesitant on another run for President, seeing Palin as a stronger competitor than many in the Democratic Party were willing to admit. However, with the sorrowing US economy and the increasing trouble in the middle east, coupled by the Democrat's victories in Congress and across the country, Obama soon realized his second chance was coming sooner than he fought.

"Let's do this," he told his assembled staff in early 2011. "Let's go!"

Election Night: 2012
The Time: 8:58 pm EST

Barack Obama: 116 (53%)

Jeb Bush: 55 (45%)

Election Night: 2012
The Time: 9:58 pm EST

Barack Obama: 213 (54%)

Jeb Bush: 76 (45%)