Election Odds

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ODDS TO BE ELECTED
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES IN 2004

 Name Party Title Odds
George W. Bush (R) President 4/5
Howard Dean (D) Former Vermont Governor 4/1
John Kerry (D) Massachusetts Senator 8/1
Dick Gephardt (D) Missouri Congressman 12/1
Wesley Clark (D) Retired General 15/1
Joe Lieberman (D) Connecticut Senator 20/1
John Edwards (D) North Carolina Senator 40/1
Carol Moseley-Braun  (D) Former Illinois Senator 250/1
Dennis Kucinich  (D) Ohio Congressman  250/1
Ralph Nader (G) Consumer advocate 500/1
Al Sharpton (D) Civil rights activist 1000/1

From Americasline.com--

Anyway, bush's re-election is at 70%, a scandal won't happen, but the geopolitical event is at least imagineable.  Bush is going to have to beat himself in order to lose.

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Ryan-
Are you saying, based on his job performance in the field of foreign policy, you will not vote for GWB in 2004?  

I did not support the war at the beginning, although I supported the 87B for Iraq and Afghanistan.

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11.26.03

Bush's re-election chances: 70%

Bush v. each Dem major candidate:

John Kerry: 60%
Howard dean: 75%
John Edwards: 50%
Wesley clark: 55%
Joe Lieberman: 55%

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December 14, 2003

With the capture of Saddam Hussein in Tikrit, I will raise Bush's re-election chances from 70% to 80%.  This might take foreign policy off oif the table, leaving only.....cuts in overtime pay?  MEdicare?  Not much left for my party in 2004.

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12/25/03

Bush's chances holing steady at 80%.
The GOP's chances of keeping the senate go from 99.99% to 99.999% after Breaux retires, and the GOP's chances of keeping the House is 80%.  

Democratic nomination: Chances of winning the nomination:

1. Howard Dean (75%)
2. Wesley Clark (15%)
3. Dick Gephardt (10%)

Gephardt can stop Dean is Iowa and then on Super Tuesday have a go at Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Arizona.  clark can winn on Super Tuesday and stop Dean, and is right there on Oklahoma.

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Dec 2, 2003

11 Months until election day, and I'll boost Bush's chances at reelection to 75% from 65%.

Barring a major geopolitical event (25% chance) or scandal (<1% chance), Bush is a shoe-in for reelection.

Now it's almost 10 months until election day, and I'm going to raise the chance of a major geopolitical event (such as another terrorist attack on the US) to 35% from 25%.  Therefore, Im going to lower Bush's chances to 65% from 75%.

Why do you say a terorist attack is mor likely now?  And do you think another terrorist attack will help Bush or hurt him?

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I don't think Dean can win without a major geopolitical event, or his message gets weaker with each passing day.

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Dec 2, 2003

11 Months until election day, and I'll boost Bush's chances at reelection to 75% from 65%.

Barring a major geopolitical event (25% chance) or scandal (<1% chance), Bush is a shoe-in for reelection.

Now it's almost 10 months until election day, and I'm going to raise the chance of a major geopolitical event (such as another terrorist attack on the US) to 35% from 25%.  Therefore, Im going to lower Bush's chances to 65% from 75%.

Dem nomination:
Dean 75%
Clark 15%
Geph 5%
Other 5%

Ah, but would Dean even become the Nominee if there's another Terrorist Attack against the United States? Wouldn't Wesley Clark pull out far ahead and win the Nomination?

You said that when Saddam was caught, and it didn;t happen.  But it is possible, but just as possible is another attack strengthens Dean's message.

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Will dean win the nomination

Yes, unless something unforeseen happens, he is Mr. Democrat.

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Will dean win the nomination

Yes, unless something unforeseen happens, he is Mr. Democrat.

More like Mr. Far-Left.

Very funny.

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Yeah, we aren't that friendly today for hwatever reason.

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Will dean win the nomination

Yes, unless something unforeseen happens, he is Mr. Democrat.

More like Mr. Far-Left.

Very funny.

You just keep doing this, huh?

Dean at one time may have been moderate but in the last five year (problely when decided to run for pres) he turned hard left.

He is not hard left, his rhetoric is.  There is a difference.  I think he is to the right of Kerry.

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Will dean win the nomination

Yes, unless something unforeseen happens, he is Mr. Democrat.

More like Mr. Far-Left.

Very funny.

You just keep doing this, huh?

Dean at one time may have been moderate but in the last five year (problely when decided to run for pres) he turned hard left.

He is not hard left, his rhetoric is.  There is a difference.  I think he is to the right of Kerry.

If he was right of Kerry then Kerry would be the frontrunner not Dean.

Not true--Kerry voted for the war, which weakens his message.  Plus he is a "dead amn walking"...

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Will dean win the nomination

Yes, unless something unforeseen happens, he is Mr. Democrat.

More like Mr. Far-Left.

Very funny.

You just keep doing this, huh?

Dean at one time may have been moderate but in the last five year (problely when decided to run for pres) he turned hard left.

He is not hard left, his rhetoric is.  There is a difference.  I think he is to the right of Kerry.

If he was right of Kerry then Kerry would be the frontrunner not Dean.

Not true--Kerry voted for the war, which weakens his message.  Plus he is a "dead amn walking"...

That proves my point.  The only way that Dean could win the nom is that he ran a hard left campaign.

It does?  Dean is to the right of all the Dems economically.  The major candidates, anyway.

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You really have no idea do you?
The PCF's official program is a:

DICTATORSHIP OF THE PROLETARIET

The Hard Left is very Illiberal and is not liberal at all.

p-r-o-l-e-t-a-r-i-a-t

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Some guy named Hall ran as a communist in the USA many times.  He has the campaign pins on eBay-a cool thing to have...

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Actually, when you think about it, the family is probably the place where communism is really present.

Good point.  I never thought of it that way.

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I'd say that Bush has a 50-55% chance of winning re-election, and the Democratic nomination could go several ways.

Bush has a 70% chance of re-election in my book.  Kim Jong II is the main obstacle for his re-election.

Dem nomination:

Dean 70%
Clark 15%
Gephardt 10%
Edwards <5%
Other <1%

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That's encouraging.
What about North Korea?

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New from AMERICASLINE.com:

ODDS TO BE ELECTED
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES IN 2004

George W. Bush (R) President: 3/4
John Kerry (D) Massachusetts Senator: 4/1
Howard Dean (D) Former Vermont Governor: 5/1
John Edwards (D) North Carolina Senator: 6/1
Wesley Clark (D) Retired General: 8/1
Joe Lieberman (D) Connecticut Senator: 50/1
Dennis Kucinich  (D) Ohio Congressman:  500/1
Ralph Nader (I) Consumer advocate: 500/1
Al Sharpton (D) Civil rights activist: 500/1

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If Bush is re-elected we will most likely invade Iran.

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Odds to win the Dem Primary:

Kerry 75%
Edwards 15%
Clark 10%
Other <1%

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I always get nervous with big numbers... I'll say 50%

Right, after winning NH decisively, he has only half a chance of the nomination?  No way.

I will drop Bush's chances of re-election from 70% to 65%, based on the fall of Howard Dean and Bush's recent poll slippage.

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JMF's wrong, Kerry will lose to bush unless something drastic happens---like GDP being less than 3% in growth, or Iraq going real bad....

If un Emp is below 6% and Iraq goes alright, Bush can't lose.

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Dem nomination:

Dean 70%
Clark 15%
Gephardt 10%
Edwards <5%
Other <1%

It's amazing...Just half a month ago I gave Kerry <1% chance of winning the nomination.