Election Odds

[NHPolitico]

New from AMERICASLINE.com:

ODDS TO BE ELECTED
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES IN 2004

George W. Bush (R) President: 3/4
John Kerry (D) Massachusetts Senator: 4/1
Howard Dean (D) Former Vermont Governor: 5/1
John Edwards (D) North Carolina Senator: 6/1
Wesley Clark (D) Retired General: 8/1
Joe Lieberman (D) Connecticut Senator: 50/1
Dennis Kucinich  (D) Ohio Congressman:  500/1
Ralph Nader (I) Consumer advocate: 500/1
Al Sharpton (D) Civil rights activist: 500/1

Here's more odds from a betting group:

Bush to win: 67.1%
Kerry to be the nominee: 46.0%
Edwards to be the nominee: 21.9%
Dean to be the nominee: 15.0%

Bush is slightly less of a lock than the Pats to beat the Cats-- 69.9%

Another group has Kerry at 43.6% chance, Dean at 13.3%.

[NHPolitico]

Odds to win the Dem Primary:

Kerry 75%
Edwards 15%
Clark 10%
Other <1%

I'd put Kerry higher. He's got money, he's got establishment support, he's won both IA and NH, he's running a 50 state campaign, he's got high favorables. I'd say 90%.

[NHPolitico]

I think I generally agree with MiamiU's odds, though I am inclined to agree wuth NHpolitico that Kerry is almost unbeatable by now. I don't see anyone mounting a serious challenge to him now. Edwards is losing the electability battle, b/c he is doing worse than Kerry in match-up polls with Bush, and he lost aginst Clark in NH. Kerry has more momentum, higher support, more money and more wins than Edwards, as well as a better geographical position, in the Dem primaries.

I also agree that Bush chances of reelection has sunk significantly, but I'm not sure from where to where....I'll still put Bush really high though, 60-80% sounds about right.

Scoring one of Kerry's advantages is one thing, but he's got them all and no one has any other advantages.  Kerry might be able to win SC if Clark and Edwards can't knock the other out early.

[NHPolitico]

Almost 9 months until election day, and I'm going to lower Bush's chances to 55% from 60%.

Kerry's nomination would boost Bush's chances, but that has been more than offset by:

1) No signs of job growth....Has to change by April or Bush is toast.
2) 2003Q4 GDP growth of only 4% was at the low range of expectations....2004Q1 & Q2 need to come in above 5% and 2003Q4 needs to be revised upward.
3) Bush's spending proposes offending GOP base and balloning budget deficit.
4) Bush's immigration policy.

Instead of focusing on the themes of fighting a dual war on terror and recession, Bush:

1) Proposes to increase funding to the Arts (Huh?!)
2) Proposes to take us to barren places like the Moon and Mars at HUGE expense
3) Dramatically increased spending on education instead of focusing on the lack of discipline and parental involvement in the schools
4) Proposed and signed into law a Prescription Drug package whose estimated costs exploded with WEEKS from $400B to $520B.
5) Proposed winking at illegal immigrants
6) etc, etc, etc&#8230;

Bush is rapidly losing respect of the GOP base.

What can help?  Drop immigration, drop increase spending on the arts, drop moon and mars.....and pray for Rhenquist (sp?) to retire and appoint Estrada (heals GOP base and brings in Hispanics).

January 2004 was a HORRIBLE month for Bush, by far the worst in his administration.  A couple more months like this and it's hello to Pres Kerry.

Wow, that sounds...really good!

I agree that Bush election chances are falling some, but I still view him as the favourite. One of the main problem is that most economic factors so far aren't real changes that people notice, just numbers. If unemployment doesn't fall soon, Bush will have tremendous problems.

In past years, the president runs much further behind opponents in early polls than Bush currently does.  I'm not worried, yet.

[NHPolitico]

Dean's in this until someone drags him down to the ground and stuffs him in a burlap sack, I guess.

This campaign has always defied conventional wisdom. Our extraordinary rise last year defied conventional wisdom—so did our fall in Iowa, and so did our comeback in New Hampshire after most pundits predicted Howard Dean was finished.

Conventional wisdom has been consistently wrong about this race.

So when conventional wisdom says a candidate must win somewhere on February 3, or that John Kerry will have wrapped up the nomination after fewer than 10% of the delegates have been chosen, we disagree.

Our goal for the next two and a half weeks is simple—become the last-standing alternative to John Kerry after the Wisconsin primary on February 17.

Why Wisconsin? First, it is a stand-alone primary where we believe we can run very strong. Second, it kicks off a two-week campaign for over 1,100 delegates on March 2, and the shift of the campaign that month to nearly every big state: California, New York, and Ohio on March 2, Texas and Florida on March 9, Illinois on March 16, and Pennsylvania on April 27.

In the meantime, Howard Dean is traveling to many of the February 3 states, sending surrogates—including Al Gore—to most, and conducting radio interviews in all. We believe that one or more of our major opponents will be eliminated that day, and that the others will fall by the wayside as our strength grows in the following days. As a result we have elected to not buy television advertisements in February 3 states, but instead direct our resources toward the February 7 and 8 contests in Michigan, Washington and Maine. We may not win any February 3 state, but even third place finishes will allow us to move forward, continue to amass delegates in Virginia and Tennessee on February 10, and then strongly challenge Kerry in Wisconsin.

Regardless of who takes first place in these states, we think that after Wisconsin we’ll get Kerry in the open field. Remember one crucial thing about the 2004 calendar—in previous years a front-runner or presumptive nominee would typically emerge after most of the states had voted and most of the delegates had been chosen. The final competitor to that candidate, even if he won late states, as many have done, has not been able to win a majority of delegates under any scenario.

This year is very different. The media and the party insiders will attempt to declare Kerry the winner on February 3 after fewer than 10% of the state delegates have been chosen. At that point Kerry himself will probably have claimed fewer than one third of the delegates he needs to win. They would like the campaign to be over before the voters of California, New York, Texas and nearly every other big state have spoken.

Democrats in Florida, who witnessed a perversion of democracy in November 2000, will not have a choice concerning the nominee if the media and the party insiders have their way.

We intend to make this campaign a choice. We alone of the remaining challengers to John Kerry are geared to the long haul—we’ve raised nearly $2 million in the week after Iowa, over $600,000 in the 48 hours since New Hampshire. No candidate—not even Kerry, who mortgaged his house and tapped his personal fortune to funnel $7 million into his campaign —will have sufficient funds to advertise in all, or even most, of the big states that fall on March 2 and beyond. At that point paid advertising becomes much less of a factor.

And we alone of the remaining challengers offer a clear choice to Kerry. Howard Dean is no Johnny Come Lately to the message of change—he has actually delivered change in Vermont. Howard Dean has the courage and conviction to stand up for what’s right, even when it’s not politically popular, as opposed to the cautiousness, compromise and convenience that has characterized John Kerry’s 19 years in the Senate.

We believe that when the voters of the post-Wisconsin states—which constitute 75% of the delegates that will be chosen in the states—compare Howard Dean and John Kerry, they will conclude that Dean, not Kerry, has the best chance to beat George Bush, because only Dean offers a clear vision of change and a record of results that contrasts against the rhetoric emanating from Washington. We believe they will increasingly reject the rubber stamp presented to them by the media.

Has such a strategy ever worked before?

No. It's never been tried.

But prior to this year, no candidate had ever raised $46 million dollars, mostly from ordinary Americans giving $100 each. Prior to this year no candidate for President had ever inspired the kind of grass-roots activity that has been this campaign’s hallmark. Prior to this year no candidate for President had so clearly revitalized his party, allowed it to reclaim its voice, and shifted the agenda so clearly to a call for change.

Let the conventional wisdom and the media declare this race over. We’re going to let the people decide.

-- Roy Neel Chief Executive Officer Dean for America