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Ryan
ryanmasc
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 332


« on: November 04, 2003, 02:44:45 AM »

Question

Which of the two do you think may hinder on Bush's reelection chances: the possibility of a faltering economy or Iraq?

Right now I see both as being equally important. Earlier it was believed that foreign policy was Bush's strong suit and the economy could be the only cause of his downfall. Now (with the new economic numbers and the Iraq casualty figures) people are saying its the other way around.

I personally believe that the election will hinge on both these issues and there is no way of saying which one (if any) will eventually help or hinder Bush. Its the state of both of them by August-September 2004 when swing voters start to firmly rally behind a candidate that will make all the difference.

Should be interesting...lets wait and see.



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Ryan
ryanmasc
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 332


« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2003, 11:20:48 AM »

I wouldnt corelate the NUMBER of casualties to Bush's reelection chances. Remember US Presidents were re-elected in 1944 and 1964 two years of very high US military casualties.

The difference was that then people believed the sacrifice was worth it because they could see tangible results in the wars on at that time.

The American people, more than those of any other country, are willing to accept war-related hardships when they believe its worth fighting for.

AS to the current situation my impression is that 70% of Americans (including me) supported a war to take out Saddam Hussien. Casualties in that pursuit were acceptable.
A majority of Americans (including me again) do not currently support keeping our troops there in pursuit of nation-building. I/we  dont believe thats our job and that any results will be worth the price we are paying. The administration has not yet made an convincing case on that. This is not to say they will not by November 2004 or that the results may be self-evident by then, but right now they are not!!!!




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Ryan
ryanmasc
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 332


« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2003, 09:32:03 AM »

Ryan-
Are you saying, based on his job performance in the field of foreign policy, you will not vote for GWB in 2004?  

I did not support the war at the beginning, although I supported the 87B for Iraq and Afghanistan.

Well I’m not a dogmatic republican. I’m republican because I agree with most of the GOP platform and feel most comfortable with the ideology and bent of mind of the GOP. I have however voted for democrats on a case-by-case basis when they have good policies and are personally impressive. One example would be Sen. Breaux (D-La). I would vote for Sen. Zell Miller (D-Ga) any day. Still most such candidates would be right of center and I wouldn’t consider a liberal democrat unless the republican alternative is really unpalatable.  

In the case of 2004 the answer is yes I will vote for George Bush. (If you read my post carefully I never said I wouldn’t)
I want to make clear that I like and respect this President as do the vast majority of republicans and a majority of independents. I agree with at least 80% of his domestic policy.

On foreign policy (if you look at it over his entire term) I am STILL a strong supporter. The first time I had serious doubts were in May when though the threat from Saddam was clearly neutralized, it was clear we were still going to run the country. The concept of “nation-building” is a liberal and Clintonian concept not a conservative one. Conservatives do not believe that we should be building nations, in fact they believe that one nation cannot build another. The people of that country must do it themselves. Any help they ask for fine, but no other nation should be supervising it. I am unhappy that Bush has is not abiding by this concept but it is by no means enough for me to vote against him.

To expand further on my last post, though I have never seriously considered switching Dem in 2004, I did do some research on Joe Lieberman to see if he was someone I MIGHT consider supporting if other reasons came up. (after a look at his voting record all such thoughts ceased- I wont vote for someone so liberal)
Still, The fact that a generally committed republican like me could even think of doing that means there may be trouble down the line for Bush. Other more centrist republicans and independents may have had the same thoughts I had and may not have put them aside yet. As a matter of fact I know several of the above category that are in fact uncertain of voting Bush in 2004.

However lest the above give democrats too much joy I want to mention the following:
-   The last few weeks have seen an almost incessant barrage of anti-Bush rhetoric in the media mostly fueled by the democratic race. Once the Presidential race begins in earnest The President and his team will have an opportunity to state their case and a lot of current doubters might be persuaded.
-   If someone like Dean is nominated I can confidently predict that all doubting right-of-center voters will go back to being solidly Bush. We wont let a nutcase like him take over and screw up the country just because we are pissed with our President on one issue.
-   My gloomy outlook on Iraq is predicated upon an indefinite long-term engagement there and continuing casualties. I still believe this is likely but it may well not be so. I admit that I didn’t think we would win the original war so easily and cheaply (casualty-wise) either.
-   If the war goes better, remember to add that to a rapidly improving economy and this would be bad bad news for the democrats.

Still it will be an interesting race. Cheers.
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Ryan
ryanmasc
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 332


« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2003, 10:50:11 AM »

Demrepdan, we are even!!! I can assure you I found your post as confusing if not more so than u found mine Smiley Smiley

I want to clear up a couple of things. I said the American people, more than those of any other country, are willing to accept war-related hardships and casualties when they believe its worth fighting for.

Thats why I said, when looking for whether Bush is in trouble over Iraq, look not at the <<number of casualties>> but at whether the nation <<perceives the cause for which they were incurred as worth it>>

I fail to see how that is a contradiction.

As to how the country currently perceives our remaining in Iraq, I accept in all honesty that a majority views it negatively. Still I repeat my assertions made in the last post that
-   The last few weeks have seen an almost incessant barrage of anti-Bush rhetoric in the media mostly fueled by the democratic race. Once the Presidential race begins in earnest The President and his team will have an opportunity to state their case and a lot of current doubters might be persuaded.

-   My gloomy outlook on Iraq is predicated upon an indefinite long-term engagement there and continuing casualties. I still believe this is likely but it may well not be so. I admit that I didnt think we would win the original war so easily and cheaply (casualty-wise) either.

Thus the jury is still out on what effect the Iraq issue will have on the elections in NOV 2004. We will have to see the situation closer to that date before determining that.


I wouldnt corelate the NUMBER of casualties to Bush's reelection chances. Remember US Presidents were re-elected in 1944 and 1964 two years of very high US military casualties.

The difference was that then people believed the sacrifice was worth it because they could see tangible results in the wars on at that time.

The American people, more than those of any other country, are willing to accept war-related hardships when they believe its worth fighting for.

AS to the current situation my impression is that 70% of Americans (including me) supported a war to take out Saddam Hussien. Casualties in that pursuit were acceptable.
A majority of Americans (including me again) do not currently support keeping our troops there in pursuit of nation-building. I/we  dont believe thats our job and that any results will be worth the price we are paying. The administration has not yet made an convincing case on that. This is not to say they will not by November 2004 or that the results may be self-evident by then, but right now they are not!!!!

   I agree with you that people, especially during WWII, were willing to accept the sacrifice and knew that it was a war worth fighting. That&#8217;s why they were willing to re-elect President Roosevelt to his 4th term. I fail to see why you brought up the 1964 election though.
   Casualties in the Vietnam War didn&#8217;t  get heavy until 1965 when United States involvement really began.  In the election after that, the 1968 election, people DID indeed vote for the other party. I think the Vietnam War was a big eye-opener for Americans. The American people realized that our involvement in that war was unnecessary, and did not "preserve" OR "defend" our nation in anyway whatsoever. All it did was scare the communist (i.e. The Soviet Union) and show them that the United States government was willing to go to ANY length to defend freedom, even if it meant fighting in foreign lands and risking American lives. World War II on the other hand, was probably the last FULLY justified war we took part in. People knew we had to win that war, and everyone supported it.
   You yourself, Ryan, seem to be contradicting yourself somewhat. You first speak of how the Americans are willing to sacrifice for their nation more than any other country in the world, therefore they wouldn't care too much about casualties and it wouldn&#8217;t affect President Bush&#8217;s re-election chances. But then you go on to say that you do not support the Post-War activities.
   It&#8217;s the Post-War activities that are causing more and more American deaths, it&#8217;s the fact that we are still over there. Now I'm not saying we should pull troops out, I actually feel the opposite. We got involved in fighting the war, we can't just pull out now that we did our dirty work.
   I mean, just the fact that you seem upset that we are still over there, leads me to believe that you think that more American deaths are unacceptable. If that&#8217;s the case, then how can you say that their should be no correlation between the number of casualties and Bush's re-election chances?  I will say one thing, however, that the soldiers killed in Iraq have little effect on Americans OVERALL. Not everyone has a family member or friend that is wounded or killed in Iraq, thus people are not as sympathetic towards how many die. So in that respect, I can clearly see why there should be no correlation between the number of casualties and Bush' re-election chances.
   But the overall POINT that the American people SHOULD and WILL realize, is the REASON as to why we are still in Iraq and losing more and more American soldiers. THAT in itself is what will spark attentions in most American's minds, which will ultimately force them to question whether or not President Bush should continue as President. So I still believe that the list of casualties, which is a direct result of the War with Iraq and Post-War activites, will ULTIMATELY effect the voters. Maybe not directly, but ultimately nonetheless.  
   And I would also like to followup on Miamau1027's question, since you seem to dislike our post-war activities in Iraq, will you be voting for President Bush in the 2004 election?
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Ryan
ryanmasc
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 332


« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2003, 11:44:50 AM »

I just thought I'd attach a couple of articles (links) which speak of increasing republican identification in the country. I submit that they suggest that Bush continues to have support for his policies in general (though with a small majority)

And if (like me) members of this increasing majority are unhappy about Iraq its not affecting their likely vote at this time.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17267-2003Nov8.html

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/us/Politics/poll_party_allegiance031104.html

The washpost one is more consice if you prefer.
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Ryan
ryanmasc
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 332


« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2003, 05:31:42 AM »

Demrepdan, we are even!!! I can assure you I found your post as confusing if not more so than u found mine Smiley Smiley
Ha ha! I know what you mean. After having read what I said again I now realize I have no idea what the hell I was trying to say. And you're right, I don't see a contradiction.
    But in essence, the point I was trying to make is that it is the War and the way it was handled and is being handled that will affect the vote of Americans. And the Americans killed in Iraq is a direct result of how the war is being handled, and how more things could be done to prevent more loss of Americans lives. So again, I don't know what the hell I was trying to say. haha. Sorry for the confusion.

LOL Don't sweat it bud Smiley Happens to the best of us -   by which I mean ME Smiley Wink  I don't remember how many times I've gone back to a post I made and said "what WAS I trying to say here?? I know I had a good point at the time but I cant figure out for the life of me what it was" Cheesy

In any event though I was unable to summarize your post in any way (which I usually can for all posts) I did get the gist and we both agree that Iraq is not going well for America and CAN be a big problem for Bush in 2004. However for reasons I have specified in my last two posts in this section I have strong reasons to believe it wont prevent his re-election.
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Ryan
ryanmasc
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 332


« Reply #6 on: November 17, 2003, 03:41:56 AM »

I put Bush's chances at reelection at about 50 - 55%.

Right now, I believe he's got about a 60% chance, but, alas, the election is not right now.

Too true. There has been a definite downward trend that doesnt look like its going to stop.

Still take into account the following:

-   The last few weeks have seen an almost incessant barrage of anti-Bush rhetoric in the media mostly fueled by the democratic race. Once the Presidential race begins in earnest The President and his team will have an opportunity to state their case and a lot of current doubters might be persuaded.
-   If someone like Dean is nominated I can confidently predict that all doubting right-of-center voters will go back to being solidly Bush. We wont let a nutcase like him take over and screw up the country just because we are pissed with our President on one issue.
-   A gloomy outlook on Iraq is predicated upon an indefinite long-term engagement there and continuing casualties. I still believe this is likely but it may well not be so. I admit that I didn&#8217;t think we would win the original war so easily and cheaply (casualty-wise) either.
-   If the war goes better, remember to add that to a rapidly improving economy and this would be bad bad news for the democrats.

Still it will be an interesting race. Cheers.
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Ryan
ryanmasc
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 332


« Reply #7 on: November 25, 2003, 09:04:05 AM »

Bin Ladin is probably dead!! The guy was on dialysis and given that he would be hanging out in (and shuttling between) caves these days without the latest in medical technology, the odds on him being hale and hearty are not good.

Besides doesnt it strike you as odd that a guy so fond of videotape messages has chosen to restrict himself to very unclear audio-tapes of late???

Obviously you see the reason Al Quaida wants to pretend he is alive?? Neo-Nazis insisted that Hitler was in fact alive and preparing a master plan to resurrect the Reich till well after he WOULD have been a hundred years old Grin
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Ryan
ryanmasc
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 332


« Reply #8 on: December 02, 2003, 02:47:12 AM »

I'm going to reluctantly agree that there is no better than a five % chance of attaining a super-majority for the GOP.

I disagree with Nym that there arnt even enough (given the right candidate and national trend) competitive seats. To all those already mentioned you can add Nevada, Wisconsin, North Dakota etc

Its just that winning 80- 90% of such seats is such a statistically unlikely event that I dont believe it will occur.

Btw unless Ur discussing the relation between the Presidential elec and the senate elec, U may wanna post this in the Senate 2004 thread Smiley
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