I'd say this race is a real toss-up. Bush has some strengths, but also some real weaknesses too. It'll be a close race, I'd be shocked if Bush wins by more than 5% or loses by more than 2%. Realistically I see no conceivable scenario in which Bush could win by more than 10% or lose by more than 5%. Recent polling, all of these taken in January, seems to suggest this as well...
Newsweek
Kerry 48
Bush 46
Newsweek--would you like to see Bush reelected?
No 49
Yes 45
American Research Group
Kerry 47
Bush 46
Among Independents, it's Kerry 55, Bush 39....
Quinnipiac University
Bush 49
Kerry 45
Fox News/Opinion Dynamics
Bush 43
Democrat 39
Bush 49
Kerry 42
ABC/Washington Post
Bush 48
Kerry 46
Zogby
Democrat 45
Bush 41
Zogby--Bush deserves reelection or time for someone new?
Someone new 48
Deserves reelection 41
Democracy Corps
Bush 49
Democrat 45
Time/CNN--likely to vote for Bush?
Very/Somewhat likely 49
Very/Somewhat unlikely 48
Very unlikely beats very likely 36-30....
CBS/New York Times
Democrat 45
Bush 43
Also, Newsweek has Bush's approval rating down to 49% now.
So anyone saying that Bush is a shoo-in is completely ignorant of reality at this point in the race. Certainly, one can predict a strong Bush win, but at this point in time, all evidence suggests that the nation is evenly split. Thus, any prediction of a solid Bush win means that you are saying that people will change their minds and vote for Bush.
And all available evidence suggests that Kerry is the strongest possible Democratic nominee, as all recent polls which test Bush against any of the 5 serious Democrats always show Kerry as running strongest against Bush.
And no, incumbent presidents don't always trail at this point in the race. Clinton and Reagan both led continuously throughout the entire election year in head to head matchups against the eventual opposing nominee. I'd say Bush's chances are worse than Clinton's or Reagan's, but better than Carter's or Bush 41's. In other words, it's going to be really close.
I agree its going to be awfully close, as these polls suggest - though it is early. I can't actually identify why Bush's popularity would've gone down in January, other than the attention drawn by the Democratic primary and the fact that he hasn't begun compaigning. I'm really hoping money can make the difference this time around.
The one thing I do pin my hopes on is I don't see how Bush is likely to do any worse than he did in 2000. I think the people who voted Bush in 2000 represent a kind of very likely Republican core vote. Given the changes in the electoral college caused by the Census, Bush could lose NH, lose an even bigger percentage of the vote in the Gore states, and just gain about a hundred thousand votes net in Florida to make up for the Nader factor (FL was the only state where Nader mattered), and he holds. I could actually see Bush winning again with a slightly lower percentage of the popular vote.
Didn't Nader matter in NH as well?
One can't assume that ALL of Nader's votes would still have voted and voted for Gore, but yes Gore + Nader would only have mattered in FL and NH.
