zorkpolitics
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,188
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« on: November 09, 2003, 10:28:02 PM » |
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I give Bush about a 70% chance of being re-elected (though by small vote margin), based on two assumptions. 1) The economy will be improving as compared to 2001-2003. The recent jobs and GDP numbers make this a very likely scenario. 2) Iraq will be getting better: fewer casualties and some evidence of a functioning Iraqi government. Although this is much less sure, the plan to train and turnover security duty to ex-Iraqi soldiers, will probably reduce US casualties.
I don't think a future terrorist attack affects the outcome of the election: if there are no new attacks on the US, Bush receives credit; if there is an additional attack, it proves him right for fighting against the threats.
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