Election Odds (user search)
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Author Topic: Election Odds  (Read 58021 times)
Inmate Trump
GWBFan
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Posts: 12,066


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -7.30

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« on: November 16, 2003, 10:56:32 PM »
I put Bush's chances at reelection at about 50 - 55%.

Right now, I believe he's got about a 60% chance, but, alas, the election is not right now.
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Inmate Trump
GWBFan
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,066


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -7.30

P P P
« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2003, 10:30:13 AM »
We could also find Osama bin Laden or Saddam before November next year, and that would be a huge boost for Bush's numbers.  Finding either of those two would signal a "turn" in the war (even though we're still winning), since a lot of voters might be unhappy with the Iraq situation right now.  Remember, Abraham Lincoln wasn't even a shoo-in for reelection.  The Republican party was split at first.  The Democratic opponent was a well known and liked general.  Lincoln was only sure of being reelected after Sherman's march to Atlanta and it looked like the North was going to win the war.  So Lincoln won b/c nobody wanted to vote against the winner of the war.
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