Galician Elections

[Bono]

The spanish region of Galicia:



is helding an election this sunday. The contesting parties are the PP(conservative), led by the current regional PM, Fraga Irribane, the PSOE(socialist), led by Perez Touriño, and the BNG(Galician Nationalist Bloc), a coalition of leftist nationalist parties, ranging from communists and trotskysts, to left liberals. they are led by Anxo Quintana, and are regarded as the likely coaltion partners for the socialists in case they manage to beat the PP. There are other small parties, bu they are not regarded has having any fighting chance.
There are 75 seats at stake, divided in 4 provinces.
The current distribution is:
PP - 41 seats.
PSOE - 17 seats.
BNG - 17 seats.

Things are loooking shaky for Irribane, the old geezer, but he might be able to survive this yet again, and be able to die on office as he seems to want.

More info here(in spanish).

[Bono]

Doesnt anyone think this board has to many damn stickies?

Don't question my authority or I'll have you executed ---Al

[Bono]

First exit polls:
TVE:
PP  41,5%  32-35 seats
PSOE  32%  23-26 seats
BNG  22,6% 16-18 seats

Antena3
PP 41,7% 33-35 seats
PSOE  31,9%  24-26 seats
BNG  21,9%  15-17 seats

Cadena Ser
PP 33-35 seats
PSOE  26-27 seats
BNG  14-15 seats

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So that's a majority for the opposition parties?

[Bono]

So that's a majority for the opposition parties?

Yep, if they do coligate.

[Bono]

http://www.cadenaser.com/comunes/2005/elecciones_gallegas/index.html

With 25.8% of votes counted:
PP 46,9% 38 seats
PSOE  31,6%  24 seats
BNG  18,8%  13 seats
 

[Bono]

41,4% of votes counted.

PP 46,2% 38 seats
PSOE 31,9 %  24 seats
BNG 19,2 %  13 seats

If this holds out, Irribane clings to government by one seat.

[Bono]

85,2% counted

PP 45,1% 37 seats
PSOE 32,5%  25 seats
BNG 19,6%  13 seats

Well, unless there is a last minute turn, its the end of the game for irribane.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How long has he been running Galica like his personal fiefdom? Isn't it something like 20 years?

[Bono]

How long has he been running Galica like his personal fiefdom? Isn't it something like 20 years?

15 years. He got pres in 1990.
Most analysts think that it's because of his insistence in running at 82(!), and after promising not to run again, that the PP lost this election.

[Bono]

99.4% counted

PP 45% 37 seats
PSOE  32,5% 25 seats
BNG  19,6% 13 seats

It isn't over now. The margin in Pontevedra is so close, that its up to the emmigrant vote.

[Platypus]

I saw this on the spanish news on SBS this morning. Whilst I could barekly understand a word, I was able to read the numbers, and it looked bad for the PP. It's good to have that confirmed :S

[minionofmidas]

How long has he been running Galica like his personal fiefdom? Isn't it something like 20 years?

15 years. He got pres in 1990.
Most analysts think that it's because of his insistence in running at 82(!), and after promising not to run again, that the PP lost this election.

Ah, but basically he's been running the region since before Franco died IIRC.

[Bono]

Official results with 100% of the votes counted.
However, there is still the emmigration votes, which will be found out in an election in the 27th of this month.
These votes will decide if the PP gets that seat that is hanging in Pontevedra, the 38th seat that will give it an absolute majority.

Anyways, here are the results:
Turnout 68.1%

PP 44,9% 37 seats
PSOE 32,5% 25 seats
BNG 19,6% 13 seats

Compared with 2001
PP 51,6% 41 seats
PSOE  21,8% 17 seats
BNG  22,6% 17 seats

By province:
A Coruña
2005                                          2001 results
PP 42,6% 11 seats               48,7% 12 seats
PSOE 32,6% 8 seats                22,9% 6 seats
BNG 21,4%  5 seats                 24,8%  6 seats   

Lugo
2005                                           2001 results
PP 49,1% 8 seats                       56,0% 9 seats
PSOE 33,7% 5 seats                  19,5%  3 seats
BNG 15,2% 2 seats                    21,6%  3 seats

Ourense
2005                                            2001 results
PP 50,7%  8 seats                       57,4%  8 seats
PSOE 30% 4 seats                      19,3%  3 seats
BNG 17,5% 2 seats                     20,3%  3 seats

Pontevedra
2005                                            2001 results
PP 43,8%                                     50,8%  12 seats
PSOE 33,0%                                 21,7%  5 seats
BNG 20,1%                                   23,1%  5 seats

[Kevinstat]

So, the election is held using separate closed party lists and the D'Hodnt allocation method in each province, right?  That's what the results from each province and the overall results as they stand now, from which I subtracted the seat results in each of the three other provinces to get the results as they currently stand in Pontevedra (10 seats for the PP, 8 for the PSOE and 4 for the BNG), suggest.

That is a close race for the last seat in Pontevedra, with the last of the PSOE's 8 seats vulnerable both to the PP and, even more so, to the BNG.  I divided the PP's percentage of the vote in Pontevedra by 11, the PSOE's percentage by 8 and the BNG's by 5, then multiplied each of those percentages by such a number that they add up to 100% to get a comperably close three-way race for one seat, and these are the results I got:

PP 32.8%
PSOE 34.0%
BNG 33.1%

The results of this calculation using the actual current vote totals could be a tenth of a percentage point or two closer (or further apart) depending on how the results Bono displayed were rounded (assuming they were rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent).

Bono, could you tell us what percentage of either the votes in Pontevedra cast so far or the total vote are expected to be cast in the June 27 election in Pontevedra for emmigrant voters?  Could you also tell us if these voters tend to favor one or two of those three voters more than the other voters, either in Galicia or in Spain as a whole.  Like in America, the overseas vote has traditionally largely been military, and that vote has generally leaned (how strongly I'm not sure) Republican.  In other words, who are these emmigrant voters and how should we expect them to vote, taking into consideration the current situation that whether or not the PP retains its absolute majorita depends on how those voters from Pontevedra vote?

Thanks,

Kevin

[Bono]

So, the election is held using separate closed party lists and the D'Hodnt allocation method in each province, right?

Yep.

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First, here are the exact vote totals. Figured this might help. The PP needs to get  65% of the emmigration voters. Now, the emigrants traditionally favor the PP. The PP also needs that there be at least 35000 valid votes, and that the PSOE does not aglutinate the vote of all the neft. Of coruse, even if the loses in the emigration vote, they will still probably try to declare some votes invalid and demand a recount or something.
Oh yes, the total emmigrant registered voters is of 305017.
In 2001, the emmigrant turnout was of 25.7%, and so far(since most emmigrants vote by mail), it's been 26.2%.

Here are some figures.

Unfortunately, I dont think I have the numbers only for Pontevedra.

[Kevinstat]

Thanks Bono,

From these totals, it seems like the PP needs (and I'll use the Spanish number punctuation method just for fun) 7.740,625 + 1,375x emmigrant votes, where x is the number of emmigrant votes received by the PSOE, to have its eleventh seat to be equal in priority, before any tiebreaker, to the PSOE's eighth.  In fractional terms, that's 7.740 5/8 + (1 3/8)x.  It also needs 2.239,8 + 2,2y emmigrant votes for its eleventh seat to be equal in priority to the BNG's fifth, where y is the number of emmigrant votes received by the BNG.  The BNG needs 2.500,375 + 0,625x or 2.500 3/8 + (5/8)x emmigrant votes for its fifth seat to be equal in priority with the PSOE's eighth, x again being the number of emmigrant votes received by the PSOE.  The emmigrant vote hasn't been
very friendly toward the BNG in the past, so I doubt the BNG will even gain on the PSOE in the contest for the seat in question, let alone win a fifth seat.

By the way, I like the Spanish names for the USA, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands.  It took me a while to figure a couple of those out.

[minionofmidas]

PSOE-BNG victory is now official.

[Bono]

PSOE-BNG victory is now official.

Drat, you beat me to it.