Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Alaska

[ElectionsGuy]

Two votes. One for a rating (Safe R, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other)

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit: Alabama

Ratings

Safe Clinton: 0
Likely Clinton: 0
Lean Clinton: 0
Toss-Up: 0
Lean Trump: 0
Likely Trump: 0
Safe Trump: 9

Trump: 9
Clinton: 0
Toss-Up: 0

Predictions

Trump: 9
Clinton: 0

Added 'Other' option (just in case) and flipped order of candidates since last poll. The participation in the Alabama thread was phenomenal, hopefully that can continue.

Alaska: Likely R, Trump, 54-39 Trump. I say likely because Alaska may or may not be in the middle of a Democratic trend right now (hard to tell) and its a small state prone to large swings and large third party showings. So I think there's a small chance Trump could lose it if something really bad were to happen to him.

[President Johnson]

Safe TRUMP (R).

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Likely R

Donald Trump 51%
Hillary Clinton 44%
Other 5%

[Dr. Arch]

AK has been seen a sharp trend to D over the last couple of cycles. I wouldn't be surprised if this is Trump +[4-6], but also wouldn't fall off my seat if HRC won it. In any case, I see it as Lean R at the moment.

[Xing]

This could end up being a sleeper race, especially if Trump is losing nationally by more than 5%. If nothing else, watch for the eventual margin. For now...

Likely Trump, Trump wins 51-42, Johnson gets ~5% of the vote.

[Devout Centrist]

Likely R, but possible Clinton win if the stars line up right and Johnson gets a high percentage of the vote.

[Skye]

Likely R

Trump 53
Clinton 41

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Likely R.

This state will flip if Clinton wins the national popular vote by at least 12 points.  It could flip sooner if Johnson gets more than 10% of the vote.

[evergreenarbor]

At the moment, Alaska is Safe R. I expect Trump to win, but don't feel confident predicting a percentage because I expect the third party vote in Alaska to be strong.

I think Alaska will be Likely R or Lean R in 2020, depending on the candidates.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Likely R. Johnson will get at least 10% or more of the vote.

Trump- 49%
Clinton- 38%
Johnson- 13%

[Gass3268]

Lean Trump, but could easily go Clinton if Johnson gets enough.

48-45-7 (Trump-Clinton-Other)

[Kingpoleon]

Lean R. I expect it might be 47-44 or so for a Trump, but if Clinton picks someone libertarianish like Wyden or Franken, it could go to her narrowly.

[Thomas D]

Likely Trump

Trump 48
Clinton 37
Johnson 11
Stein 4

[heatcharger]

Likely R

Trump - 47
Clinton - 37
Johnson - 12
Stein - 4

Alaska's been trending D for some time now, but I don't think that Hillary will outperform Obama for a few reasons but most obvious because Johnson and Stein will do better than last time.

No doubt to me that Sanders would have made this a tossup without much difficulty considering he obliterated Hillary here.

[ProudModerate2]

.... Added 'Other' option (just in case) and flipped order of candidates since last poll. The participation in the Alabama thread was phenomenal, hopefully that can continue.

Can I recommend that you take out the "Trump" and "Clinton" options (on future threads), as they could confuse people during their vote. (What is their purpose, anyways ?)
Then in addition, only one option is available for people to select.

[tinman64]

Safe R

Trump - 50
Clinton - 38
Johnson - 9
Other - 3

[IceSpear]

Likely R

52-41 Trump

[ElectionsGuy]

.... Added 'Other' option (just in case) and flipped order of candidates since last poll. The participation in the Alabama thread was phenomenal, hopefully that can continue.

Can I recommend that you take out the "Trump" and "Clinton" options (on future threads), as they could confuse people during their vote. (What is their purpose, anyways ?)
Then in addition, only one option is available for people to select.

This series is called 'ratings and predictions' for a reason. One vote is for ratings, one is for predictions. I'll clarify in the OP since a lot of people don't seem to be voting in the predictions part of the poll.

[Santander]

Likely R
Lean R if Palin campaigns there.

[Boston Bread]

Lean R
Trump 48
Clinton 41
Johnson 8

[Gass3268]

Likely R
Lean R if Palin campaigns there.

Lol, true.

[ProudModerate2]

.... Added 'Other' option (just in case) and flipped order of candidates since last poll. The participation in the Alabama thread was phenomenal, hopefully that can continue.

Can I recommend that you take out the "Trump" and "Clinton" options (on future threads), as they could confuse people during their vote. (What is their purpose, anyways ?)
Then in addition, only one option is available for people to select.

This series is called 'ratings and predictions' for a reason. One vote is for ratings, one is for predictions. I'll clarify in the OP since a lot of people don't seem to be voting in the predictions part of the poll.

But is not fair to say that one's "rating" is one's "prediction" ?
Redundant ?
Well anyway .... it's your deal. Neat idea.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Lean (R)

Trump (R) 45%
Clinton (D) 41%
Johnson (L) 13%
Others (I) 1%

[Kingpoleon]

.... Added 'Other' option (just in case) and flipped order of candidates since last poll. The participation in the Alabama thread was phenomenal, hopefully that can continue.

Can I recommend that you take out the "Trump" and "Clinton" options (on future threads), as they could confuse people during their vote. (What is their purpose, anyways ?)
Then in addition, only one option is available for people to select.

This series is called 'ratings and predictions' for a reason. One vote is for ratings, one is for predictions. I'll clarify in the OP since a lot of people don't seem to be voting in the predictions part of the poll.

But is not fair to say that one's "rating" is one's "prediction" ?
Redundant ?
Well anyway .... it's your deal. Neat idea.

You do the rating of the state. Got it?

Now you vote again as to WHO YOU THINK WILL WIN. IF YOU THINK CLINTON WILL WIN, YOU CHECK THE RATING AND CLINTON. IF YOU THINK TRUMP WILL WIN, YOU CLICK THE RATING AND TRUMP.

[ElectionsGuy]

.... Added 'Other' option (just in case) and flipped order of candidates since last poll. The participation in the Alabama thread was phenomenal, hopefully that can continue.

Can I recommend that you take out the "Trump" and "Clinton" options (on future threads), as they could confuse people during their vote. (What is their purpose, anyways ?)
Then in addition, only one option is available for people to select.

This series is called 'ratings and predictions' for a reason. One vote is for ratings, one is for predictions. I'll clarify in the OP since a lot of people don't seem to be voting in the predictions part of the poll.

But is not fair to say that one's "rating" is one's "prediction" ?
Redundant ?
Well anyway .... it's your deal. Neat idea.

I mean obviously if you're selecting a lean/likely/safe rating you'd logically think that party's candidate would win the state, but for toss-ups its to push a prediction when its not so clear. It is redundant I suppose for most states, but I need to be consistent for every state to gather data.