Does anybody think Gary Johnson can win the election?

[136or142]

This sort of reminds me a little of the 1998 Minnesota governor election when Jesse Ventura ran against the two major party candidates who were both fairly unlikable and came up the middle to win.


First though:
My memory on this is a bit hazy, I remembered Jesse Ventura defeating the lame Democratic nominee Roger Moe who said something like "in a three person race all I need to focus on is winning 40% of the vote" and that both the Republican and Democratic nominees won at party conventions not in open primaries.

However, because I often get these things wrong when I try to do them by memory, I looked the 1998 election up first and Jesse Ventura beat Skip Humphrey of the Democrats and Norm Coleman of the Republicans and both Humphrey and Coleman were elected in primaries (though Coleman just faced token opposition.)  And, Roger Moe was the Democratic nominee in 2002 when he ran against Republican Tim Pawlenty and the Reform Party successor to Ventura and former Democrat, Tim Penny, when he made that comment.

That said, I clearly remember that Jesse Ventura ran basically as a libertarian (and governed pretty much as one as well) who was essentially socially liberal and fiscally conservative as Gary Johnson is now running, and that Ventura started off the general election campaign as little more than a fringe  candidate and steadily gained a little more support in every single subsequent poll until he moved into the lead a few days before the election.

The similarities:
1.Gary Johnson, like Jesse Ventura, is a socially liberal fiscally conservative libertarian (and Libertarian.)

2.Gary Johnson, like Jesse Ventura, has credibility as a former two term governor as Jesse Ventura claimed credibility based on his time as mayor of one of Minnesota's larger cities.

3.Gary Johnson is running against two unpopular opponents at a time when the 'status quo' is also unpopular.

The differences:
1.Gary Johnson is running nationally,  Jesse Ventura just had to run in Minnesota

2.Gary Johnson is not a celebrity like Jesse Ventura and doesn't have Ventura's charisma.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Nobody thinks Johnson can win.  That's the bottom line for Johnson.  Nobody thinks he can carry a single state.  This is the stumbling block folks have to voting for Johnson.  At this point, a vote for Johnson is, mainly, an anti-Trump vote by folks who can't bring themselves to vote for Hillary.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Nobody thinks Johnson can win.  That's the bottom line for Johnson.  Nobody thinks he can carry a single state.  This is the stumbling block folks have to voting for Johnson.  At this point, a vote for Johnson is, mainly, an anti-Trump vote by folks who can't bring themselves to vote for Hillary.

Which is accurate, but a pity. This should be the Libertarian's finest hour.

I figure there's an outside chance he catches fire and starts getting media coverage, particularly if Clinton takes more damage without leaving the race.

[Thomas D]

If Hillary gets indicted and Trump gets caught saying something REALLY bad, Johnson might have a shot.

[Sir Mohamed]

No, he can't even win a state.

[Kingpoleon]

I don't think he can win, no.

Minnesota is a very different place than the rest of the country. Ventura's libertarianish shtick combined with his celebrity status and charisma made him a good fit for Minnesota. Johnson, meanwhile, doesn't have a strong enough personality to be a good fit for a single state.

[Seriously?]

Seriously? Ummm. No.

[President Johnson]

No way.

[SillyAmerican]

Nobody thinks Johnson can win.  That's the bottom line for Johnson.  Nobody thinks he can carry a single state.  This is the stumbling block folks have to voting for Johnson.  At this point, a vote for Johnson is, mainly, an anti-Trump vote by folks who can't bring themselves to vote for Hillary.

True enough.

In my case, I've done the election calculus for my situation, which has Hillary Clinton doing nothing to earn my vote (and in fact has acted in ways that make it impossible for me to vote for her), but Clinton will carry California in a big way, so I'm certain that my casting my ballot for Gary Johnson would have absolutely no effect on the final result. I'd like to see a more vibrant Libertarian party, so I see no downside in voting for Johnson.

Even so, nobody thinks Johnson can win, not even those willing to vote for him.

[sparkey]

The people who think he can win are thinking more along these lines: https://alibertarianfuture.com/2016-election/gary-johnson-elected-president-home-state-new-mexico/

That's pretty unrealistic, though. I doubt that congressional Republicans would pick Johnson over Trump, especially if Trump won their states.

Of course, I'm perfectly happy to support Johnson despite the odds.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

If he some how did.....I would be like ".....at least Trump didn't win"

[Bojack Horseman]

No. (Sane)

[Maxwell]

Nope. Absolute best performance is 3%.

[Ebsy]

Um, no.

[amdcpus]

Nope. Absolute best performance is 3%.

Saving this. He is going to do better than 3%.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Nope. Absolute best performance is 3%.

Saving this. He is going to do better than 3%.

I'll even say that he'll break 5%.

[IceSpear]

No.

[Badger]

Of course not. Don't be silly.

[Maxwell]

Nope. Absolute best performance is 3%.

Saving this. He is going to do better than 3%.

I'll even say that he'll break 5%.

Saint Gary polled at around 6% during 2012.

[Ljube]

Of course not. Don't be silly.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Nope. Absolute best performance is 3%.

Saving this. He is going to do better than 3%.

I'll even say that he'll break 5%.

Saint Gary polled at around 6% during 2012.

Pope Gary I polled at 1-2% in May-June of 2012 according to 538. Now he's at 10% or so. Obviously he wouldn't get that if the election was today, but I think he'd do at least a bit better than in 2012.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pay-attention-to-libertarian-gary-johnson-hes-pulling-10-vs-trump-and-clinton/ (Ctrl F "Barr" to get to the specific paragraph).

[Minnesota Mike]

I don't think even Johnson thinks he can win.

If Teddy Roosevelt couldn't win as a 3rd Party candidate I don't think this country will ever will ever see a 3rd Party candidate elected.

[andrew_c]

Johnson couldn't win even if both Clinton and Trump were in jail.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Not yet at least.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Johnson at this point is only a protest vote. And third parties can't go far under FPTP voting, so no.