Australian Territory Elections, 2016
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Author Topic: Australian Territory Elections, 2016  (Read 4062 times)
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CrabCake
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« on: July 04, 2016, 02:05:31 PM »

Both of the Australian mainland territories have elections this year.

The first (and funniest) is the 27th August Northern Territory election. The present CLP NT government is one of the biggest farces you will ever see (so much so that I can't even begin to really cover it). After coming in to power with a historic swing against Labor by rural aboriginal voters, everything just ... fell apart immediately (there was a by-election almost immediately afterwards with a +12.4 swing towards the ALP.

They lost their first Chief Minister in less than a year, kicked off in a coup. The new CM Adam Giles, would narrowly avoid the same fate in a ludicrously botched coup himself. His government has been characterised by gaffes (homphobia, misogyny and general stupidity) from him and his senior ministers, by scandals that would be ludicrous in a parish council (like selling off the lease to the Chinese for a completely unspecified sum, a stream of leaks and backstabbing, insane instability at the top levels (there have been seven deputy chief ministers and at least 15 cabinet reshuffles), trying to impeach the Speaker (who is a hilarious person who openly bitches about federal politicians on social media) only to have the parliament immediately reelect her on the secret ballot, the defection of the aboriginal MP's to Palmer United, the defection of the party President, the loss of the majority due to further defections, slush fund allegations, the sacking of the police comissioner and an endless saga surrounding developments on Port Melville (and whether it legally is a port just because it's called "port". Right now its rising star Nathan Barret has been disgraced and kicked from the party for sending videos of himself masturbating to a constituent.

With that in mind, the Labor party under Michael Gunner should have no illusions that he won't be next Chief Minister. Various independents have reason to be cheerful as well. But the CLP itself is in a desperate battle for every single seat they have - there is some talk that it is the last election the (formerly dominant) party will ever contest under the name.

ACT election will be less fun though. The chamber is bigger than last election, with five five-member electorates. No idea who that helps.

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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #1 on: July 04, 2016, 07:58:54 PM »

Both of the Australian mainland territories have elections this year.

The first (and funniest) is the 27th August Northern Territory election. The present CLP NT government is one of the biggest farces you will ever see (so much so that I can't even begin to really cover it). After coming in to power with a historic swing against Labor by rural aboriginal voters, everything just ... fell apart immediately (there was a by-election almost immediately afterwards with a +12.4 swing towards the ALP.

They lost their first Chief Minister in less than a year, kicked off in a coup. The new CM Adam Giles, would narrowly avoid the same fate in a ludicrously botched coup himself. His government has been characterised by gaffes (homphobia, misogyny and general stupidity) from him and his senior ministers, by scandals that would be ludicrous in a parish council (like selling off the lease to the Chinese for a completely unspecified sum, a stream of leaks and backstabbing, insane instability at the top levels (there have been seven deputy chief ministers and at least 15 cabinet reshuffles), trying to impeach the Speaker (who is a hilarious person who openly bitches about federal politicians on social media) only to have the parliament immediately reelect her on the secret ballot, the defection of the aboriginal MP's to Palmer United, the defection of the party President, the loss of the majority due to further defections, slush fund allegations, the sacking of the police comissioner and an endless saga surrounding developments on Port Melville (and whether it legally is a port just because it's called "port". Right now its rising star Nathan Barret has been disgraced and kicked from the party for sending videos of himself masturbating to a constituent.

With that in mind, the Labor party under Michael Gunner should have no illusions that he won't be next Chief Minister. Various independents have reason to be cheerful as well. But the CLP itself is in a desperate battle for every single seat they have - there is some talk that it is the last election the (formerly dominant) party will ever contest under the name.

ACT election will be less fun though. The chamber is bigger than last election, with five five-member electorates. No idea who that helps.



What do you think will happen to the CLP? Do you think it will be replaced by a territorial division of the Liberals? As for the ACT, can't see Labor losing government there.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2 on: July 04, 2016, 08:57:30 PM »

The Territories... yeah, I can't the CLP winning and I can't see the ALP lose the ACT, but more that I can't see the Libs win.

But the 5-5 seat electorates will throw some curveballs.

As I currently see the ACT

Kurrajong
3 ALP - 1 GRN - 1 Lib

Yeribee
2 ALP - 2 Libs - 1 GRN

Murrumbidgee
2 ALP - 2 Libs - 1 GRN

Brindabella
3 Lib - 1 ALP - 1 GRN

Ginninderra
2 ALP - 2 Lib - 1 GRN

So currenly

10 ALP 10 Lib 5 Grn

Lab/Grn coalition government
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morgieb
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« Reply #3 on: July 04, 2016, 09:07:02 PM »

So how many seats do the CLP win?
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #4 on: July 05, 2016, 09:12:53 AM »

So how many seats do the CLP win?

Most likely low single digits, or even a complete wipe-out, with very safe CLP seats going independent.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2016, 11:15:36 AM »

Yet another scandal, and it's quite an awful one involving the treatment of juvenile prisoners, has rocked the party. Giles' comments before he became CM about wishing to ignore Un regulations on prisons and throw them in a big hole mercilessly being dragged up by opposition.
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« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2016, 06:25:57 AM »

The election is in a month... if they weren't already doomed, they are now.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2016, 01:42:22 PM »

Yet another scandal, and it's quite an awful one involving the treatment of juvenile prisoners, has rocked the party. Giles' comments before he became CM about wishing to ignore Un regulations on prisons and throw them in a big hole mercilessly being dragged up by opposition.

We'll miss them when they've gone.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #8 on: July 28, 2016, 09:21:10 PM »

What's the highest TPP result in an Australian election?  I have a feeling that record might be shattered next month...

I know that the NT election is optional preferences so a TPP figure is less accurate, but its still nice to have and I'm pretty sure that its in the right ballpark usually.  Might OPV actually end up helping Labor in this election?  It certainly won't hurt them quite as much in other areas (the Greens haven't done as well here in the past and those are the preferences that exhaust in other optional preferential areas), and it wouldn't surprise me if there are a fair few normally conservative people who would normally preference the CLP (or even give them their first preferences) who simply don't bother this time and let their vote exhaust rather than flow to the CLP...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #9 on: July 28, 2016, 10:24:20 PM »
« Edited: July 29, 2016, 01:18:34 AM by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »

What's the highest TPP result in an Australian election?  I have a feeling that record might be shattered next month...

I know that the NT election is optional preferences so a TPP figure is less accurate, but its still nice to have and I'm pretty sure that its in the right ballpark usually.  Might OPV actually end up helping Labor in this election?  It certainly won't hurt them quite as much in other areas (the Greens haven't done as well here in the past and those are the preferences that exhaust in other optional preferential areas), and it wouldn't surprise me if there are a fair few normally conservative people who would normally preference the CLP (or even give them their first preferences) who simply don't bother this time and let their vote exhaust rather than flow to the CLP...

QLD 2012 was 62.8%, NSW 2011 was 64.2%
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morgieb
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« Reply #10 on: July 29, 2016, 01:17:53 AM »

What's the highest TPP result in an Australian election?  I have a feeling that record might be shattered next month...

I know that the NT election is optional preferences so a TPP figure is less accurate, but its still nice to have and I'm pretty sure that its in the right ballpark usually.  Might OPV actually end up helping Labor in this election?  It certainly won't hurt them quite as much in other areas (the Greens haven't done as well here in the past and those are the preferences that exhaust in other optional preferential areas), and it wouldn't surprise me if there are a fair few normally conservative people who would normally preference the CLP (or even give them their first preferences) who simply don't bother this time and let their vote exhaust rather than flow to the CLP...

QLD 2015 was 62.8%, NSW 2011 was 64.2%
*QLD 2012
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #11 on: July 29, 2016, 01:18:17 AM »

Ugh... indeed. Corrected.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #12 on: July 29, 2016, 01:27:03 AM »

Yet another scandal, and it's quite an awful one involving the treatment of juvenile prisoners, has rocked the party. Giles' comments before he became CM about wishing to ignore Un regulations on prisons and throw them in a big hole mercilessly being dragged up by opposition.

Ugh. I'm not sure I want to hear that, but... details?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #13 on: July 29, 2016, 02:18:56 AM »

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-29/nt-opposition-calls-for-chief-minister-adam-giles-to-resign/7673244
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CrabCake
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« Reply #14 on: August 01, 2016, 07:14:39 AM »
« Edited: August 01, 2016, 07:24:32 AM by ClintonianCake »

Poll:

AlP - 64
CLP - 36

Primary

Alp - 36
CLP - 26
Green - 6
1TP - 6
Other - 21

Interestingly Labor's primary vote hasn't changed at all since last election, but the Other category (including Greens and "1TP" (a CLP split) have blown up.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #15 on: August 04, 2016, 05:45:29 AM »


lmao

Looking forward to some good news at least..!
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Lachi
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« Reply #16 on: August 04, 2016, 06:50:16 AM »

Using average TPP:

LAB: 61.8%
CLP: 38.2%

Swing to LAB: 17.6%

Chamber if swing is uniform:
LAB Landslide:


LAB: 19
CLP: 5
IND: 1
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #17 on: August 04, 2016, 07:13:37 AM »

Are there significantly more other candidates standing this time?  I'm pretty sure that last time there were a lot of two or three candidate races, with not a whole lot of independents standing.  It might even be worse than the CLP than those numbers suggest; from what I've seen all of the Independents who seem to be getting traction are running in CLP seats; if they beat the ALP into second on the primary vote than the CLP need to be really close to 50% to have any shot at holding on since I can't see the ALP not trying to direct preferences to any Independent whose not some far-right loon.

One good thing that the CLP have is that its optional preferential; if you had compulsory preferences and voters supporting independents were that against the CLP then it'd be a disaster: while now there might be a few people who let their votes exhaust and that is a big help for the CLP.  I don't know if that's taken into account in that poll or not; if it is then you might have ended up with a situation where two-thirds of voters preferences the ALP above the CLP which would be crazy.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #18 on: August 19, 2016, 09:17:53 PM »

We're a week out from the NT election... bloodbath still expected.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #19 on: August 19, 2016, 10:32:33 PM »
« Edited: August 19, 2016, 10:41:29 PM by ClintonianCake »

Well there is one prominent independent running in Blain, the former seat of the ousted premier Terry Mills, and then home to now disgraced minister Barrett. The identity of this Indy? Why none other than Terry Mills himself, who is returning to politics with a grudge.

Also former Labor leader Delia Lawriee, who resigned from the party after deselection is standing in Karama.
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Lachi
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« Reply #20 on: August 20, 2016, 06:02:29 AM »

TPP Average:

CLP: 36%
ALP: 64%

Current swing: 20% to ALP

If swing is uniform, if seat was held by same candidate as 2012 election:
ALP: 20
CLP: 4
IND: 2
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #21 on: August 25, 2016, 03:35:12 AM »

There's been a second 64-36 TPP poll out of the NT.

What's kind of hilarious, is that NT has optional preferential, with the CLP primary at 24%... it might be lucky to hit 36% TPP at this rate.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #22 on: August 27, 2016, 03:50:25 AM »

The count is going to start shortly. Giles is deep trouble in his own seat with a near 20% margin
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #23 on: August 27, 2016, 04:12:22 AM »

My last minute prediction- 14 ALP, 5 Independent, 6 CLP
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #24 on: August 27, 2016, 05:17:34 AM »

ABC tech issues are funny. Just heard Antony Green say "Giles is getting flogged on preferences"

Lol.
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