Australian Territory Elections, 2016

[Tetro Kornbluth]

These results are hilarious

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

These results are hilarious

They truly are. So far the ABC comp can only give the CLP one seat...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Btw, does anyone have a map or at least data on electorates in the NT by % Aboriginal?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Nope, well I don't

Antony Green confirms the obvious, Labor will form the next Government

[IceAgeComing]

They've probably won Spillett (although with lots of early and postal votes then you can't be 100% sure; the ABC seem to be factoring in a much bigger ALP swing than the first few preference counts show though), other than that they are only leading in Daly and even then its very close (the ABC are giving the CLP 50.5% and saying the swing is below 5%, the actual raw numbers have the ALP ahead although still on a swing below the average, although still a pretty big one): the ABC's site seems to be confused about Blain but that's probably because the CLP are ahead in the two-candidate count that's being given to them despite being in a very distant third in primary votes: Terry Mills has probably won that assuming that he's got a decent amount of preferences from the CLP.  The swing in Katherine is pretty impressive really; although it still might go back to the CLP as early and postal votes come in.

We're almost at the point where you wonder quite how the CLP will be able to form a credible opposition - while the wipe out sadly looks like it hasn't happened arguably only holding one seat is equally as bad, although it looks like that they've got someone with a bit of experience which is useful.  Perhaps the independents will become the Official Opposition instead...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The ABC Comp is predicting

ALP - 18
CLP - 3
IND - 4

[Lachi]

The CLP deserved this demolition.

Current vote totals at 23:37 AEST
LAB: 34,638/43.1% (+6.1% Swing)
CLP: 25,514/31.7% (-18.9% Swing)
1 Territory: 2,789/3.5% (3.5% Swing)
Greens: 2,240/2.8% (-0.5% Swing)
Others: 15,239/18.9% (+9.3% Swing)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Why was the swing in Spillett so weak compared to elsewhere?

Also Labor to sweep Alice Springs? Has that ever happened before?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Why was the swing in Spillett so weak compared to elsewhere?

Also Labor to sweep Alice Springs? Has that ever happened before?

Not in Territory elections but it did happen in the Fed election.

Spillett is weird, one can only think that it was an area that responded well to sand-bagging.

[Boston Bread]

Where can I get a map of the results?

[Ebsy]

Where can I get a map of the results?

I threw something together rather quickly from where the results stand (they're not finished counting). Not my best map but whatever.



Darwin enhanced:



Link here.

[Lachi]

Ugh, why is counting taking so long, and going so slowly?

[morgieb]

Ugh, why is counting taking so long, and going so slowly?

Lot of remote communities which don't have proper booths, so their votes need to be taken to a central location.

I think anyway.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

ACT election is on Saturday.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/act-election-2016/guide/preview/

The general vibe around the place is that while people are irritated and bored with Labor, the chance of the Liberals gaining the 13 seats required for Government is quite small.

It IS possible that the Liberals will win the most seats and votes, but given the Greens have pledged to not form Government with the Libs, Labor will most likely form Government.

My current prediction
Kurrajong
Lab 2 Libs 2 Grn 1
Ginninderra
Labor 2 Libs 2 1?
Yerrabi
Labor 2 Libs 2 1?
Murrumbidgee
Labor 2 Libs 2 Grn 1
Brindabella
Lab 2 Libs 3

Needed - 13
Labor - 10
Liberals - 11
Greens -2
?? - 2

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Labor has likely won, with a shock swing against the Liberals

[Vosem]

Seems as though the Sex Party very, very narrowly missed out (and could still win) on a seat in Brindabella, where they got 9% of the vote (coming in third, ahead of the Greens at just 5%), even as they either didn't run candidates or were hopelessly minor elsewhere. Why did this happen? None of the pre-election write-ups seemed to address it, and their candidates there aren't notable enough for Wikipedia write-ups.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Seems as though the Sex Party very, very narrowly missed out (and could still win) on a seat in Brindabella, where they got 9% of the vote (coming in third, ahead of the Greens at just 5%), even as they either didn't run candidates or were hopelessly minor elsewhere. Why did this happen? None of the pre-election write-ups seemed to address it, and their candidates there aren't notable enough for Wikipedia write-ups.

The Sex Party focused all of its energy and resources into Brindabella... that's pretty much it. No one really knew where the races were... given there were no public polls and Labor at least stopped private polling about 5-6 weeks ago to focus resources on advertising. No one saw the Libs going backwards in their "best" seat...