Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Arizona

[Sir Mohamed]

Slightly leans Trump. But 40% chance for Hillary.

[pbrower2a]

About R+6 compared to the US as a whole, but I can't see Hillary Clinton getting less than 53% of the vote share against Donald Trump in the US if you ignore Johnson. If you consider Johnson, then Hillary Clinton wins the state 47-41-10.

Toss-up now slightly favoring Clinton. Hispanics are going to vote like blacks in Arizona this year. 

[AGA]

I see that a lot of people have changed Arizona to tossup.

[Xing]

I'm very tempted to move this to toss-up, but I'm going to wait and see if Clinton's numbers hold.

[Maxwell]

I'd say in the middle of Toss-up and Lean R (tilt R), so I voted toss-up. Trump probably is the ultimate victor by about 2 or 3.

[Hammy]

Lean R; Trump 50-46.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Lean R

Trump 50
Clinton 46

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

And... back to Lean R.

It was fun while it lasted.

[Xing]

And... back to Lean R.

It was fun while it lasted.

It's just one vote from flipping back, so it could happen.

[ElectionsGuy]

If there's no median vote (which can happen if Safe D + Likely D + Lean D + Toss-Up = Lean R + Likely R + Safe R) then I'll take which option has the most amount of votes (Toss-Up in this thread) in the case of a tie.

[AGA]

And... back to Lean R.

It was fun while it lasted.

It's just one vote from flipping back, so it could happen.

I just changed my vote to toss-up due to the latest poll, so it is back to toss-up.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

If there's no median vote (which can happen if Safe D + Likely D + Lean D + Toss-Up = Lean R + Likely R + Safe R) then I'll take which option has the most amount of votes (Toss-Up in this thread) in the case of a tie.

Shouldn't you take the option with the least votes in a tie, since that would indicate that that side has more confidence?

[ElectionsGuy]

If there's no median vote (which can happen if Safe D + Likely D + Lean D + Toss-Up = Lean R + Likely R + Safe R) then I'll take which option has the most amount of votes (Toss-Up in this thread) in the case of a tie.

Shouldn't you take the option with the least votes in a tie, since that would indicate that that side has more confidence?

I'm struggling to figure out what you mean. If toss-up + all D = lean R + all other R, and lean R has less votes because there are more likely R and Safe R votes than D votes, how does that make Lean R more confident? All it indicates is more people think its strongly Republican than strongly Democratic.

I'm confusing myself. My goodness. Florida is actually tied both numerically and median vote wise between Toss-Up and Lean D, and I legitimately don't know what I'm going to do if it stays like that.

[Figueira]

I count Tilt R as a subcategory as Tossup, so Tossup.

[Plankton5165]

Arizona has only gone Democratic once since the beginning of the second half of the 20th century, I definitely would not be surprised if Trump won Arizona in 2016 either.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

If there's no median vote (which can happen if Safe D + Likely D + Lean D + Toss-Up = Lean R + Likely R + Safe R) then I'll take which option has the most amount of votes (Toss-Up in this thread) in the case of a tie.

Shouldn't you take the option with the least votes in a tie, since that would indicate that that side has more confidence?

I'm struggling to figure out what you mean. If toss-up + all D = lean R + all other R, and lean R has less votes because there are more likely R and Safe R votes than D votes, how does that make Lean R more confident? All it indicates is more people think its strongly Republican than strongly Democratic.

I'm confusing myself. My goodness. Florida is actually tied both numerically and median vote wise between Toss-Up and Lean D, and I legitimately don't know what I'm going to do if it stays like that.

that's my point . Imagine a (purely theoretical) state where the vote is like this:

2 Safe D
0 Likely D
3 Lean D
17 Tossup
18 Lean R
3 Likely R
1 Safe R

By your system, this would be categorized under Lean R. However, if two people change from Lean R to Likely R:

2 Safe D
0 Likely D
3 Lean D
17 Tossup
16 Lean R
5 Likely R
1 Safe R

then the race flips to Tossup, even though all movement has been in the R direction. To me it makes more sense to reverse this, so that the move towards R flips it in the opposite direction.

[ElectionsGuy]

If there's no median vote (which can happen if Safe D + Likely D + Lean D + Toss-Up = Lean R + Likely R + Safe R) then I'll take which option has the most amount of votes (Toss-Up in this thread) in the case of a tie.

Shouldn't you take the option with the least votes in a tie, since that would indicate that that side has more confidence?

I'm struggling to figure out what you mean. If toss-up + all D = lean R + all other R, and lean R has less votes because there are more likely R and Safe R votes than D votes, how does that make Lean R more confident? All it indicates is more people think its strongly Republican than strongly Democratic.

I'm confusing myself. My goodness. Florida is actually tied both numerically and median vote wise between Toss-Up and Lean D, and I legitimately don't know what I'm going to do if it stays like that.

that's my point . Imagine a (purely theoretical) state where the vote is like this:

2 Safe D
0 Likely D
3 Lean D
17 Tossup
18 Lean R
3 Likely R
1 Safe R

By your system, this would be categorized under Lean R. However, if two people change from Lean R to Likely R:

2 Safe D
0 Likely D
3 Lean D
17 Tossup
16 Lean R
5 Likely R
1 Safe R

then the race flips to Tossup, even though all movement has been in the R direction. To me it makes more sense to reverse this, so that the move towards R flips it in the opposite direction.

sh**t, that is ed up. Reversing it though would still be discriminatory because two sides are still equal. To make it simpler and easier, I'll just classify it as 'undecided' if there's no median vote and encourage people to break the tie in the next thread.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Tossup, Clinton 48-48 - I think this will be the closest state in the country.

[peterthlee]

Tilt D
Clinton 49-47-4

[Xing]

I'm definitely ready to call this a toss-up now, and I'm going to be bold and say Hillary wins 48-47.

[Mallow]

I'm definitely ready to call this a toss-up now, and I'm going to be bold and say Hillary wins 48-47.

Had it as a tossup all along, but I just switched it from Trump to Clinton.

[Dr. Arch]

I'm definitely ready to call this a toss-up now, and I'm going to be bold and say Hillary wins 48-47.

Had it as a tossup all along, but I just switched it from Trump to Clinton.

I already had it at Tossup/Clinton. Call it a premonition

[President Johnson]

Toss-up.

Trump: 48%
Clinton: 46%

[TDAS04]

Changed my vote from lean R to toss-up and from Trump win to Clinton win.  Clinton wins 48-46.

[Tiger front]

I'm also changing my prediction,
Clinton 48%
Trump 46%
Other 6%