Right. In any case, it's still a pretty remarkable phenomenon. Since 1840, the state with the mean center of population has gone with the winner in all except for 1916, which was kind of a strange election because Wilson narrowly won on the basis of his incumbency, which he only had in the first place because of Roosevelt's ultra-successful third-party challenge in 1912... probably the most successful "third party" challenge since 1860, at least.
1788-1808 Maryland. In 1800 when the electoral votes were split (Maryland usually elected its electors by district), Jefferson had a bare majority of the popular vote.
1812-1852 Virginia. Went for favorite son Crawford in 1824. Voted for Van Buren in 1840, and Cass in 1848
1856 (Virginia or Ohio). The mean center crossed the Ohio River into Ohio between 1850 and 1860. Fremont carrried Ohio in 1856
1860-1876. Ohio. No misses.
1880 Kentucky (just south of Cincinnati, Ohio)). Hancock carried Kentucky
1884-1940. Indiana Hughes in 1916 It helps that Indiana was slightly more Democrat than other NW states such that Cleveland carried it in 1884 and 1892, but not 1888.
1944-1976. Illinois Ford in 1976
1980-2004. Missouri. No misses.
6 or 7 misses in 55 elections. Has any single state done better?
The state containing the mean center of population appears to have been a better bellwether than any fixed state.
The mean center state has missed 7 elections (if the center had crossed into Ohio by 1856) or 6 (if the center was still in western Virginia in 1856).
No state east of the Mississippi has missed 7 or fewer elections. There are 11 western states (plus the District of Columbia) that have missed 7 or fewer elections, but they have participated in fewer elections:
California (first election 1852, 7 misses in 39 tries, 82% right, 3 for center). Since California became a state, the mean center state has only missed 3 times, 1880 (KY for Hancock), 1916 (IN for Hughes), and 1976 (IL for Ford).
Nevada (1864, 7/36, 81%, 3 for center).
Montana (1892, 6/29, 83%, 2)
Wyoming (1892, 6/29, 83%, 2)
Idaho (1892, 7/29, 76%, 2)
Utah (1896, 6/28, 79%, 2)
Oklahoma (1908, 5/25, 80%, 2)
New Mexico (1912, 2/24, 92%, 2)
New Mexico is the only state to have a better percentage than the center state, and has matched its performance since statehood.
Arizona (1912, 4/24, 83%, 2)
Alaska (1960, 4/12, 67%, 1)
Hawaii (1960, 5/12, 58%, 1)
District of Columbia (1964, 7/11, 36%, 1)